Eastern demands may complicate Sudan junta’s strategy

Significance Burhan’s decision responds to renewed threats by the Council of Beja Nazirs (CBN) to blockade Port Sudan unless the eastern track of the Juba Peace Agreement (JPA) is annulled. This poses a problem for Burhan, whose other partners in government, the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), oppose any deviation from the JPA. Impacts Fears that Sudan’s ports will remain susceptible to stoppages will deter foreign investment and shipping into Sudan. SRF leader Yasir Arman’s return to the protest movement underscores the fragility of the SRF’s alliance with the coup leaders. The committee may drag out consideration of the eastern question, to avoid controversy while the coup leaders try to win wider support.

Significance A 2018 peace agreement was meant to provide space for economic reform and recovery, but it has failed to deliver this. Moreover, the outlook for improvement remains poor. Impacts Many South Sudanese will remain reliant on international organisations to provide basic services. Corruption and mismanagement will deter foreign investment, including in the oil sector, the main source of government revenue. Despite a formal end to the conflict, persistent insecurity and the risk of further unrest will constrain the recovery.


Subject Management of South Sudan's economy Significance A framework peace agreement reached in Khartoum on June 27 comprised only five substantive articles; it was therefore striking that one focused on re-starting oil production. The potential -- and the desire -- for economic recovery are real, but turning potential into actual development and growth will require more than just getting the oil flowing again. Impacts Attempts to strengthen oilfield security in Unity State could trigger new fighting. Unity’s oilfields could potentially add 70,000 barrels per day by the end of 2019. Foreign investment inflows will remain minimal in the short-to-medium term.


Subject Problems with implementing the Algiers Accord. Significance President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK) reshuffled his cabinet for the second time this year on September 24. Despite adding four extra posts, none of the new ministers represent armed groups in the north. Five months since signing the Algiers Accord with northern groups, implementation of the peace agreement has barely begun. Impacts There is a risk of attacks on army posts in the north and elsewhere. Aid organisations will remain vulnerable to attacks in the north of the country. Foreign investment in the mining sector will stay subdued. The Bamako government will seek to sustain international and regional confidence in the Accord.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Van Ha ◽  
Mark J. Holmes ◽  
Gazi Hassan

PurposeThis study focuses on the linkages between foreign direct investment and the research and development (R&D) and innovation activity of domestic enterprises in Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachThe Heckman selection model approach is applied to a panel dataset of nearly 7,000 Vietnamese firms for the 2011–2015 study period to investigate the impact of foreign presence on the R&D of local firms through horizontal and vertical linkages. Probit model estimation is employed to examine how foreign investment influences the innovation activity of local companies.FindingsWhile there are a small number of firms carrying out R&D activities in Vietnam, foreign or joint domestic–foreign venture firms are less inclined than domestic firms to undertake R&D. Domestic factors that include capital, labor quality, location and export status of firm have a significant effect on the decision of domestic firms to participate in R&D activity. Only forward linkages and the gross firm output are found to have an impact on the R&D intensity of domestic enterprises, while other factors appear to have no significant influence on how much firms spend on R&D activities.Practical implicationsIn order to promote the R&D activity of domestic firms, policy should focus on (1) the backward linkages between local firms in downstream sectors with their foreign suppliers in upstream sectors, and (2) the internal factors such as labor, capital or location that affect the decisions made by domestic firms.Originality/valueGiven that foreign investment may affect R&D and innovation activity of local firms in host countries, the impact is relatively unexplored for many emerging economies and not so in the case of Vietnam. The availability of a unique survey on Vietnamese firm technology and competitiveness provides the opportunity to address this gap in the literature.


Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.


Headline HONG KONG: Protest movement is not completely dead


Significance Demonstrations resumed on February 22, the second anniversary of the ‘Hirak’ movement that ousted President Abdelaziz Bouteflika from office. His successor, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, has failed to appease the protest movement. On February 21, he announced the release of political prisoners, a partial cabinet reshuffle and the dissolution of parliament in anticipation of elections, but the measures appear to have been ineffective in staving off dissent. Impacts After the elections, Tebboune might have backing for economic reforms that would open the economy to foreign investors. As reserves have fallen to USD43bn, down from USD59bn in February 2020, Algiers may have to resort to external borrowing. Members of the old regime who survived the fall of Bouteflika might decide to fight back if Tebboune challenges their interests too much.


Significance The outcome comes as little surprise, given the repressive tactics used by the Ortega administration in the run-up to the vote, which included the disqualification or imprisonment of numerous opposition candidates. The United States and other international actors are now poised to put increased pressure on the re-elected government. Impacts The prospect of extended sanctions will act as a further disincentive to foreign investment. Ortega’s efforts to boost regional support through increased alignment with Honduras may lead to greater bilateral trade. More undocumented Nicaraguan migration looks inevitable, whether due to continuing political repression or worsening economic hardship.


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