Miliband faces Scottish National Party bind in UK poll

Headline UNITED KINGDOM: Miliband faces SNP bind

Significance On September 2, in light of the Scottish electorate's overwhelming vote to remain in the EU, Sturgeon's ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) launched a national survey on whether to hold a second referendum on their flagship policy of independence from the United Kingdom. Impacts Sturgeon's display of post-Brexit leadership will cement her popularity in Scotland, regardless of the independence question. The apparent exhaustion of all other options of retaining EU status could see independence support increase. The failure of a second referendum could put an end to the independence cause for a generation.


Subject Prospects for the United Kingdom in 2020. Significance Regardless of the December 12 election outcome, Brexit will continue to dominate UK politics and further fuel economic and business uncertainty in 2020. The Scottish National Party (SNP) will press London to allow a second independence referendum, risking the integrity of the Union.


Author(s):  
Stephen Tierney

This chapter examines the independence referendum in Scotland, held on September 18, 2014, and its implications for the federal direction of the United Kingdom. The referendum saw 55 percent of Scots say “No” to the question: “Should Scotland be an Independent Country?”. Despite this result, the referendum has sparked a further process of decentralization. The chapter first describes the context that led to the Scottish independence referendum, focusing in particular on the success of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the parliamentary elections of May 2011 and why the referendum emerged from—and was organized within—the normal contours of constitutional democracy. It then considers the period of constitutional engagement and the outcome of the referendum before concluding with an analysis of some of the lessons that can be drawn from it with regard to constitutional change and the issue of secession.


Subject Fresh election scenarios. Significance Opinion polls suggest that no single party will win an overall majority in the House of Commons on May 7. They also imply that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will do extremely well, substantially increasing its representation from its current six seats to around 25-45 seats. Furthermore, polls also indicate that the third party in terms of current parliamentary representation -- the Liberal Democrats, junior partners in the governing coalition -- may struggle to retain that status and could fall as low as 15-25 seats. If that occurred, the formation of a new coalition arrangement led either by the Conservatives or Labour would be much more complicated than in May 2010, when the election ended without an overall majority. This has led to speculation that another general election could follow relatively swiftly after May -- even within this calendar year. Impacts The May 2015 election may well not produce a result that can last for a five-year term. The Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 makes the swift dissolution of parliament for a fresh election more challenging. Still, there is a scenario in which another contest could occur in 2015. However, a fresh election in 2016-17 is more likely than one held a few months later.


Subject Scottish independence drive. Significance Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon launched a fresh independence drive on April 28. Speaking at the spring conference of her Scottish National Party (SNP) in Edinburgh, she said it was “Scotland’s intent to stay part of the European family of nations”. The conference saw delegates back plans for an independent Scottish currency, the declaration of a climate emergency and the establishment of a non-party Citizens’ Assembly to generate debate about Scotland’s future. Impacts The SNP’s anti-Brexit stance and efforts to help EU citizens will bolster migrant communities’ support for both the party and independence. A major non-party, grassroots march in Glasgow on May 4 kicked off a new programme of demonstrations to raise independence support. The 20-year anniversary of the opening of the Scottish Parliament in July will drive further debate and reflection on Scotland’s future. Unionist parties will focus increasingly on the single issue of rejecting independence to galvanise their support.


Significance The move follows the annual conference of her ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) in Glasgow this month -- its last before Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom leave the EU on March 29. Sturgeon has so far resisted pressure to call another Scottish independence referendum in response to Brexit but kept supporters’ hopes alive stressing in her keynote speech, “a better future is within our grasp”. Impacts Sturgeon’s address to the People’s Vote marchers is a clear signal to EU leaders and could stand her in good stead in future talks. Negative Brexit-related developments over the coming years will strengthen the independence movement. Scotland would be in a strong position to re-enter the EU but not to negotiate a bespoke deal.


Subject The Scottish Referendums Bill. Significance The persistent risk of no-deal Brexit is strengthening the case for Scottish independence; now a majority of Scots want independence within two years, according to recent polls. If the Scottish Parliament passes the Referendums Bill, it could grant Scottish ministers the power to call a new independence referendum. Impacts Labour’s lack of clarity on a Scottish independence referendum could boost support for other pro-unionist parties in Scotland. A UK election before Brexit, with the threat of no deal remaining, will play into the hands of the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP). The push towards independence will likely be strongly influenced by the impact of Brexit, which is currently unpredictable.


2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 463-478
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Grabevnik

The article conceptualizes the concept of party strength and the measurement of its two quantitative elements (electoral and institutional) by example of four United Kingdom regionalist parties: Scottish National Party, Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru. Based on the analysis of the main theoretical approaches to party strength, the article proposes a method for its measurement, which can be used to measure and evaluate regionalism through the strength of regionalist parties in different political and institutional contexts. Comparing the levels of electoral and institutional party strength allows to highlight several tendencies: growth in electoral strength of UK regionalist parties during 2010s is noted, with stabilization of the institutional party strength; and the gap in the levels of institutional strength of the regionalist parties does not reflect the difference in the level of electoral strength. At the same time, the article mentions the challenges to assessing the strength of regionalist parties, namely, the need for detailed conceptualization of the qualitative characteristics of the party strength and the lack of analysis of the communicative and organizational elements of party strength.


Author(s):  
Katarzyna Ochman

It is more than probable that the Commonwealth Games in 2014 will be used by the Scottish government as a tool in the battle for independence. For the Scottish National Party (SNP), sport events constitute another opportunity to underline Scottish autonomy. During the last Olympic Games, SNP ministers refused to use the name “Team GB” in their message to the Scottish athletes. Nurturing Scottish pride during the Games has already begun, with the official mascot—the Clyde Thistle, which is Scotland’s national flower and emblem. The mascot of the Commonwealth Games has never waved the patriotic flag as it does now.


2008 ◽  
Vol 60 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 368-400
Author(s):  
Srdjan Korac

The author analyses the major changes to the political ideology and policy platform of the stateless nation's movement in Western European postindustrial states, taking the Scottish National Party as an special example. The analysis starts with the evolution of the Anglo-Scottish relations beginning from the creation of Union of English and Scottish kingdoms by the Act of Union in 1707. Author then presents the contemporary relationship between these two provinces of the United Kingdom. He stresses that since 1990s, the Scottish national movement have been pursuing the 'silent constitutional revolution' of this multinational community, which means using the most of globalization, the European integration process, and the so called devolution, to maximize the autonomy of Scotland within the United Kingdom.


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