Armed group threat will raise CAR poll security fears

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Group Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group

Headline CAR: Armed group threat will raise poll security fears

Election delay will not solve Libya's problems

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
The Core

Significance This is expected to be followed by the first parliamentary election since 2014, at some point in early 2022. It now looks increasingly likely that both elections will be delayed. The electoral process lacks the elements it would need to be truly transformative, but it is prompting shifts in the political elite which will dictate developments for at least the next year. Impacts Khalifa Haftar will keep pushing for his armed group to form the core of Libya’s future army Seif al-Islam Qadhafi’s candidacy in the elections is unlikely to result in him becoming president. Aguileh Saleh looks set to stay on as House of Representatives speaker with no clear date for parliamentary elections.

Libya beheadings strengthen anti-Islamist agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
State Group

Significance The strikes were in response to a video released by the Islamic State group (ISG) yesterday showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts who had been kidnapped from Sirte on two separate occasions on December 31 and January 3. Brigadier Saqer al-Joroushi, who commands the air force for the armed group of former General Khalifa Haftar, said the strikes were carried out in coordination between them and Egypt. He added that further strikes were going to take place. Impacts The beheadings are sharpening divisions within the moderate Islamist Libya Dawn camp. This might trigger a confrontation between its more moderate elements and the more radical ones. The killings will reinforce popular Egyptian support for Sisi and his anti-Islamist agenda.

Socio-economic dynamics allow Chad rebels to endure

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
Local Development ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group

Significance Their persistence has long undermined the country’s stability, exemplified most recently by the death in April of President Idriss Deby during a rebel offensive. It has also affected stability among neighbouring and regional countries such as Sudan, the Central African Republic, Libya, Niger and Mali. Impacts Long-standing patterns of armed group growth, operation and decline will persist in Chad and more widely in the region. Chad is vulnerable to more political turbulence based upon domestic factors. Improvements in local development and governance will remain slow.

Governance vacuum will prolong Central Africa conflict

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Task Force ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Warning Signs ◽  
Aid Workers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Early Warning Signs ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
The Impact

Significance Over recent months, conflict between ethnic militias has escalated, leading the UN’s humanitarian chief in August to talk of “early warning signs of genocide”. The sectarian nature of the violence and rhetoric is unmistakeable. However, it also masks the fact that CAR’s insecurity is fundamentally a crisis of governance, where local actors use sectarian narratives to inflame inter-communal tensions for their own ends. Impacts The conflict may shift further east, as militia occupy territory vacated in May by the AU task force against the Lord’s Resistance Army. Attacks on aid workers will further expose civilians to armed group predations. Cross-border crime and refugees will affect neighbours, but the impact will be limited by the peripheral status of affected areas. The partial lifting of CAR’s diamond export ban may be challenged if stones from militia-controlled mines enter circulation.

Russia will watch returning jihadists closely

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Civil Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Group Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Russian Soil ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group threat to Russia. Significance Russia is using arrests and violence to curb the growth of the Islamic State group (ISG), which has expanded in the North Caucasus at the expense of established domestic jihadist groups such as the Caucasus Emirate. The outflow of militants to the Middle East has contributed to relative calm in the North Caucasus, but as combatants return, some may be intent on violence. Russia's stated intention of defeating ISG on the ground in Syria could encourage reprisal attacks on Russian soil. Impacts Putin will cite domestic terrorist threats as justification for clampdowns on civil rights. The focus on security will be used to control dissent among the Crimean Tatars, who are unhappy with their new status as Russian citizens. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov will be even more indispensable as Moscow's most powerful ally in the North Caucasus.

Sudan protest leaders face delicate armed group talks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group

Headline SUDAN: Protest leaders face delicate armed group talks

Discontent over Congo’s state of siege will grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Fertile Ground ◽  
Group Evolution ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
Armed Violence ◽  
National Local

Significance The attack is just the latest in a long series of massacres in the region but comes almost four months into a ‘state of siege’ established by President Felix Tshisekedi to put an end to armed violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Impacts The security situation in eastern DRC remains precarious and could deteriorate further. A failure to stabilise eastern DRC will weigh on Tshisekedi’s re-election prospects. Entrenched national, local and cross-border political tensions will provide fertile ground for continued armed-group evolution in the east.

Afghan Taliban contain Islamic State's regional reach

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Group Threat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
State Group

Subject The Islamic State group threat Significance Reported clashes between Islamic State group (ISG) fighters and Afghan security forces, and the appearance of ISG-style black flags have raised concerns about the ISG threat in Afghanistan. However, many of the alleged sightings of ISG fighters are vague and difficult to verify. Often they are attempts to highlight the general insecurity of certain districts, rather than reflecting real ISG presence. President Ashraf Ghani is attempting to capitalise on the ISG threat by offering Afghanistan as a "regional hub in a transnational effort" against the group. Impacts Afghan officials will exaggerate the ISG threat. TTP factionalism could increase support for ISG in areas along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Key militant groups, especially al-Qaida, will oppose ISG, partly to avoid provoking the Afghan Taliban.

Uganda-Congo offensive hints at gradual re-engagement

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
Political Upheaval ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
Military Engagement

Subject Ugandan military engagement in eastern Congo. Significance On December 22, Ugandan forces launched an attack into eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) targeting the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) armed group. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni claimed that the ADF -- an Islamist group of Ugandan origin but currently based in eastern DRC -- once again posed a direct threat to his nation and hinted that the Ugandan army was ready to play a wider role in military operations against the group. Impacts DRC’s ongoing political upheaval will both complicate, and be complicated by, insecurity in the east. Deep divisions within the Congolese army will further complicate the region’s already fragmented security landscape. The UN Security Council may face calls to expand or revise the UN peacekeeping mission’s mandate when this comes up for renewal in March.

Libya groups will use 'Islamist' label for propaganda

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Group Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group

Significance Haftar wants to seize the capital from the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Both sides, but especially the LNA, have increased their use of propaganda to undermine the other side. This includes claims about 'third force' threats posed by militant Islamist groups -- a subject which prompts alarm in Western capitals. Impacts Foreign air strikes on purported terrorist targets will not resolve fundamental problems. Attacks on civilian targets will remain a risk. Ambitious armed group leaders may try to capitalise on the situation, in Tripoli or Benghazi.

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