Discontent over Congo’s state of siege will grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Fertile Ground ◽  
Group Evolution ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
Armed Violence ◽  
National Local

Significance The attack is just the latest in a long series of massacres in the region but comes almost four months into a ‘state of siege’ established by President Felix Tshisekedi to put an end to armed violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Impacts The security situation in eastern DRC remains precarious and could deteriorate further. A failure to stabilise eastern DRC will weigh on Tshisekedi’s re-election prospects. Entrenched national, local and cross-border political tensions will provide fertile ground for continued armed-group evolution in the east.

Uganda-Congo offensive hints at gradual re-engagement

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Armed Group ◽  
Political Upheaval ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
Military Engagement

Subject Ugandan military engagement in eastern Congo. Significance On December 22, Ugandan forces launched an attack into eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) targeting the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) armed group. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni claimed that the ADF -- an Islamist group of Ugandan origin but currently based in eastern DRC -- once again posed a direct threat to his nation and hinted that the Ugandan army was ready to play a wider role in military operations against the group. Impacts DRC’s ongoing political upheaval will both complicate, and be complicated by, insecurity in the east. Deep divisions within the Congolese army will further complicate the region’s already fragmented security landscape. The UN Security Council may face calls to expand or revise the UN peacekeeping mission’s mandate when this comes up for renewal in March.

African politics and security to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
African Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Funding ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
Step Down ◽  
Regional Leaders

Subject African politics and security to end-2017. Significance Key regional leaders are set to step down from national and party presidencies in Angola and South Africa, presidents in Nigeria and Zimbabwe are in ill health, while growing displacement crises in the Central African Republic (CAR) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could worsen without increased international funding and support. Although famine risks have lessened in South Sudan, conflict and instability will persist in Nigeria and Somalia as renewed insurgency threats grow.

Uganda-Rwanda tensions will inflame regional relations

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Consensus Building ◽  
African Union ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Border Trade ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
African Community

Subject Uganda-Rwanda bilateral relations. Significance Rwanda and Uganda have held a series of meetings aimed at defusing tensions following a string of controversial deportations of Rwandans from Uganda. The highest profile saw Rwandan President Paul Kagame meet Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on the sidelines of the African Union Summit on January 28. Following the discussion, exchanges of hostile rhetoric have eased. However, relations remain fragile, and the recent friction has inflamed deep-seated antagonisms. Impacts Regional crises in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could become a further point of contention. Uganda-Rwanda frictions may hamper consensus-building in the already-divided East African Community. A spike in tensions could impact cross-border trade and tourism.

Rwandan model’s longevity will depend on donor support

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Middle Income Country ◽  
Income Country ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Events ◽  
Governance Model ◽  
Donor Support ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
National Congress

Subject Rwanda's governance model. Significance The ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) celebrated its 30th anniversary in late 2017 with a series of major public events. Taken together, they provide a lens onto President Paul Kagame and the RPF’s rule -- and the very nature of power in Rwanda today. In particular, they demonstrate the extent to which the national political space now revolves around the figure of Kagame himself. Impacts Despite impressive development gains, Rwanda’s goal of becoming a middle-income country by 2020 remains ambitious. The Rwanda National Congress, which includes many former senior RPF figures, is the main opposition threat, but faces internal divisions. Regional insecurity in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo could be destabilising if it spills across borders.

Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Great Lakes ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Democratic Legitimacy ◽  
Term Limit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
Moderate Growth ◽  
Republic Of The Congo

Subject Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2018. Significance Questions of democratic legitimacy and transition will dominate the outlook for East Africa and the Great Lakes over the coming year, in the context of election controversies (Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya), constitutional term-limit issues (Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Uganda) and deepening political conflicts (Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan). Receding economic headwinds will support a moderate growth recovery for several states (Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda), but political risk will weigh on the outlook for others (Burundi, DRC, Kenya, South Sudan).

Assassinations signal more violence ahead in Burundi

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Republic ◽  
National Council ◽  
Land Conflicts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Ranking ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
Truth And Reconciliation ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
Successful Change ◽  
Domestic Support

Significance Despite creeping atrocities carried out by state actors, acts of violence targeting government figures and high-ranking National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) members had been limited until recently. Changes in political targeting and assassinations by anti-government forces could signal the start of a bloodier conflict and more domestic support for these actions. An active armed rebellion appears to be operating in eastern areas of neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. Impacts A successful change in the constitution could increase the ruling party’s durability. Ongoing violence, even at lower levels, will prevent displaced refugees from returning home. The Burundi government’s hard-line stance offers little opportunity for improving relations with regional and international bodies. Political processes, such as unresolved land conflicts and the work of the Truth and Reconciliation Committee, will continue to stall.

Criminal groups hinder international peacebuilding

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Conflict Zones ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Opportunities ◽  
Republic Of The Congo ◽  
International Peacebuilding ◽  
Criminal Groups

Subject The role of criminal organisations in conflicts. Significance Criminal organisations operate in conflict zones in and across countries as diverse as Afghanistan, Colombia, Mali, Libya and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. They have come to shape conflicts and the states involved in them. Impacts Corruption and penetration by criminal organisations undercut governments' legitimacy. This makes it difficult for them to attract private investment that would provide legal economic opportunities. Criminal organisations reduce the profit margin of legal business activities, making many unviable. Local communities then can gradually turn to illicit economic opportunities, indirectly helping to fuel conflict.

Angola's Lourenco will fortify party and state control

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
State Control ◽  
Colonial Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Republic Of The Congo

Significance Previously, Lourenco had shown official deference to his predecessor, former President Jose Eduardo dos Santos (in office 1979-2017). However, since becoming head of the ruling People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) in September, a year after his election as state president, Lourenco has hardened his anti-graft rhetoric. Impacts Lourenco will try to mend strained relations with former colonial power Portugal; this could partially ease the debt crisis. Diplomatic tensions between Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo could worsen over the former's expulsion of Congolese migrants. Former Vice-President Manuel Vicente's reputation as a Lourenco confidante will hamper the president's good governance message.

Congo’s new president faces governance challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Governance Challenges ◽  
Republic Of The Congo

Subject Congo's political outlook after elections. Significance The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has a new president, Felix Tshisekedi, but he enters office facing serious questions about both his legitimacy and his capacity to govern. Impacts The balance of power is fragile and just a starting point for negotiation; if the Kabila-Tshisekedi alliance falters a new crisis may arise. Local conflicts could be manipulated to pressure the new president, who has no security experience and likely little control over the army. If Tshisekedi cannot consolidate stability, pragmatic acceptance of his presidency could evaporate.

Congo’s Ebola response faces critical juncture

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Community Engagement ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Critical Juncture ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Republic Of The Congo

Subject The Ebola response in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Significance Ebola cases in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are steadily rising and violence against healthcare workers has reached alarming levels, severely hampering the response. Impacts Protracted violence in the Beni area, even if unrelated to the response, will severely complicate humanitarian access. The fragmented political and military landscape around Butembo is conducive to conspiracy theories about the identities of perpetrators. The imperfect character of community engagement has entrenched distrust, and further violent episodes are likely.

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