Ecuador presidential run-off will be close-fought

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off

Headline ECUADOR: Presidential run-off will be close-fought

Vote breakdown will shape Nigeria poll outcome

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Run Off

Subject Scenarios for Nigeria's presidential and legislative elections. Significance Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for February 14, with governorship polls set for February 28. The ruling People's Democratic Party's (PDP) candidate is President Goodluck Jonathan, who is running for a second term. The opposition All Progressives Congress' presidential candidate is General Muhammadu Buhari. The presidential polls are expected to be the most competitive since 1999, laying the groundwork for several different outcomes. Impacts On one level, the security chief's call for electoral delay was designed to detract from the army's failure against Boko Haram. However, it also reflects valid concerns about voter card distribution challenges, particularly in the north. Yet a decision by the commission to delay the election at this stage would be highly controversial, likely to create a backlash. The commission called the election three months ahead of the constitutional requirement, although primarily to make time for a run-off. Yet low popular confidence in electoral administration will raise violence risks, particularly in the north.

Loyalist parliament could still test Egypt's Sisi

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Big Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Stark Contrast ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Clear Majority

Significance This will be followed by a second round on November 22-23, with run-off votes after each round to decide seats with no clear majority. Impacts With pro-business figures expected to dominate, parliament is likely to support legislation encouraging foreign investment. The election could aggravate popular disaffection with a political process seen as serving the security state and big business. In a stark contrast to previous parliaments, the Muslim Brotherhood will have next to no representation in the legislature.

Polls leave room for late election surge in Costa Rica

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
National Liberation ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Citizen Action ◽  
Run Off

Subject Costa Rica election preview. Significance As campaigning enters its final stages ahead of the February 4 presidential and legislative elections, the opposition National Liberation Party (PLN) leads the polls. However, popular frustration with the established political parties has led to a surge in momentum for the National Integration Party (PIN), which looks likely to trigger a second round run-off. Impacts The legislative polls will dictate how much clout the president has in Congress, with no one party looking set for a majority. The incumbent Citizen Action Party (PAC) will perform poorly due to Solis’s perceived ineffectiveness and the ongoing ‘cementazo’ scandal. Renewed infrastructure investment could bring long-term benefits for trade and tourism.

Disenchanted voters tilt strongly right in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Brazilian Politics

Subject The makeup of the new Congress. Significance The October 7 general elections reconfigured Brazilian politics. On the back of the success of presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro -- who fell just short of being elected in the first round --- the far right saw its representation expand significantly in a Congress where several established leaders lost seats they had held for decades. Gubernatorial candidates close to Bolsonaro also reached the run-off in key state races. Meanwhile, the traditional centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) recorded their worst electoral performance since the party's foundation in the late 1980s. Impacts Bolsonaro's economically liberal credentials are unproven. Some of Bolsonaro's allies may oppose key economic reforms. A highly fragmented Congress will make governance challenging over time.

Costa Rica election upset leaves stark run-off choice

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Single Issue ◽  
Same Sex Marriage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Pool ◽  
Run Off

Subject Costa Rica's presidential election. Significance A shock result in the February 4 election has triggered a run-off between two diametrically opposed candidates of the same name (but not related) -- evangelical politician Fabricio Alvarado Munoz and former Labour Minister Carlos Alvarado Quesada. Neither candidate looked like a realistic prospect until the closing weeks of the campaign, when a controversial ruling on same-sex marriage polarised a substantial section of the electorate on that single issue. With just under two months until the second round, both candidates will now focus on shoring up their support and appealing to a large pool of undecided voters. Impacts A move towards the centre would likely see Alvarado Quesada pick up undecided voters put off by Alvarado Munoz’s evangelical support base. Alvarado Munoz would struggle to remove Costa Rica from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. The Court's headquarters would have to move if Costa Rica did leave its jurisdiction. Whoever wins the run-off, Costa Rica’s relationship with the Court will be debated, potentially undermining its ability to enforce rulings.

Montenegro election affords mandate for pro-EU policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Yugoslav Republic ◽  
Republika Srpska ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Montenegrin strongman’s comfortable win in the presidential election on April 15. Significance Veteran Balkan survivor Milo Djukanovic secured nearly 54% of the votes in the first round, thus avoiding the need for a run-off. He has been the dominant figure in the former Yugoslav republic since the mid-1990s. Still only 56, he looks set to continue to steer Montenegro towards or even into the EU; the target accession date is 2025. Impacts After its Montenegrin setback, Moscow will try to maximise its influence in Serbia and in Bosnia-Hercegovina’s Serb entity Republika Srpska. The EU will take the election result as a rare positive sign these days that the Union is still a pole of attraction. Djukanovic’s win strengthens the position of his party for the municipal elections next month.

Chile election results point to generational change

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Left ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Generational Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Strong Performance ◽  
Election Results

Significance In the parliamentary polls, a strong performance by the Frente Amplio (FA), a new left-wing alliance, and the election of an important contingent of newcomers to Congress, mark the start of a long-delayed generational change in Chilean politics. They also suggest that the run-off presidential ballot on December 17 will be tight. Impacts The results do not necessarily imply a shift to the left, but rather that voters are eager for new faces in politics. Polling methodologies will need to be reviewed after serious errors in forecasts, probably related to coverage of younger voters. The next government, particularly if headed by Pinera, will find managing Congress difficult.

US election lawsuits unlikely to change result

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Run Off ◽  
The Us ◽  
Court Intervention ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Vote Counting

Significance However, Republican President Donald Trump is alleging that vote tallies are fraudulent and inaccurate. He is seeking recounts and undertaking lawsuits over alleged vote-counting irregularities. Impacts Two run-off elections in Georgia will determine whether the US Senate stays Republican or is tied 50-50 with the Democrats. Given the type of complaints raised by Trump’s campaign, prospects for a Supreme Court intervention look remote. Controversy over the election result will linger, perhaps until the 2024 presidential election.

Moldovan election run-off too close to call

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Significance Sandu, the pro-EU, reformist challenger, defied public opinion polls and early results to become the principal beneficiary of a large turnout among Moldovans abroad, almost twice those voting in the first-round 2016 presidential election. As neither scored over 50%, Sandu and Dodon will contest a second round on November 15. Impacts Electoral discourse around Moldova's external orientation will become more pointed. Dodon failed to anticipate a strong showing by a pro-Western and pro-reform diaspora. Practical voter mobilisation on both sides will be complicated by the pandemic.

Ecuador’s election may go to a run-off

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off

Headline ECUADOR: Election may go to a run-off

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