Chances of a centre-left German government have risen

UK's Cameron likely to go for EU referendum in 2016

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db200938 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Prime Minister ◽

Conservative Party ◽

Dutch Government ◽

German Government ◽

Content Type ◽

Eu Membership ◽

Official Position ◽

Eu Referendum ◽

The Uk ◽

The Eu

Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.

Download Full-text

Desire for fresh faces in German government will grow

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-es229726 ◽

2018 ◽

Keyword(s):

German Government ◽

Content Type

Headline GERMANY: Desire for fresh faces in cabinet will grow

Download Full-text

Yen surge to question global monetary easing's effects

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db210464 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

Interest Rates ◽

Central Banks ◽

Recent Improvement ◽

German Government ◽

Monetary Policies ◽

Government Bonds ◽

Content Type ◽

Negative Interest Rates ◽

The Us ◽

Fiscal Support

Significance Despite aggressive easing by both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the ECB, including negative interest rates, the lowering of expectations over the scale and pace of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has negated their attempts to weaken their currencies and thus boost export-driven growth. This is heightening concern that ultra-loose monetary policies have passed the point where they can revive growth and inflation. Impacts Despite the recent improvement due to the oil price rebound since mid-February, sentiment towards EM currencies will remain fragile. The still strong demand for 'safe-haven' assets, such as German government bonds and gold, implies investors will remain cautious. Negative deposit rates will further undermine banks' earnings, amid persistent concerns about capital levels. Central banks will reach the limits of their capacity to promote growth without fiscal support from governments.

Download Full-text

EU organic sector faces regulatory uncertainty

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db201597 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Crisis ◽

European Parliament ◽

Organic Foods ◽

German Government ◽

Content Type ◽

Quality Controls ◽

Regulatory Uncertainty ◽

Organic Farmers ◽

The Eu

Subject The organic sector in the EU. Significance UK consumption of organic foods is recovering from sharp reductions experienced during the 2008-09 economic crisis. Across the EU as a whole, consumption was less affected by the downturn, but organic farmers across the bloc face high costs and sometimes aggressive supermarket buying policies. As a result, imports are rising to meet growing demand, raising concerns about labelling and quality controls. Impacts Biogas subsidies could continue to put especial pressure on costs for organic producers in Germany. The German government is likely to pursue measures to help the organic sector, amid producer complaints. European Parliament consideration of the amended organic regulation looks set to be contentious.

Download Full-text

Monetary tightening could skim frothy markets

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db226296 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

Financial Market ◽

Bond Markets ◽

German Government ◽

Government Bonds ◽

Content Type ◽

Bank For International Settlements ◽

Quarterly Review ◽

Asset Classes ◽

Market Valuations ◽

Government Coalition

Subject Risk assets. Significance The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned of frothy financial-market valuations in its quarterly review on December 3. Overvaluation in several asset classes, including US equities and benchmark government bonds, in combination with monetary-stimulus withdrawal, increases the scope for a correction. Impacts Investors will continue to seek yield. Robust European growth will strenghten the euro against the dollar despite worries over the progress of German government coalition talks. Investors are worried about equity valuations, but a sustained sell-off is unlikely to occur without a sharp repricing in bond markets.

Download Full-text

Security debate deepens German government divisions

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-es217083 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

German Government ◽

Content Type

Headline GERMANY: Security debate deepens government divisions

Download Full-text

EU recovery fund will be vital for fiscal reform

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db261111 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

Constitutional Court ◽

Southern Europe ◽

German Government ◽

Fiscal Reform ◽

Fiscal Stimulus ◽

Content Type ◽

Number Of Factors ◽

Legal Challenges ◽

Effective Use ◽

The Impact

Significance Reform is needed if hard-hit, highly indebted countries are to pursue pro-growth policies over the coming years. The extent of reform will depend on a number of factors, especially the formation of the next German government and the impact of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) recovery fund. Impacts Without more ambitious fiscal stimulus, Europe’s recovery will lag behind other developed regions. Future efforts to enhance EU fiscal powers and integration would likely face legal challenges from Germany’s constitutional court. Effective use of the EU’s recovery fund may force Eurosceptic parties in southern Europe to moderate their positions.

Download Full-text

Markets may misjudge risk of Greek exit from euro-area

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db195797 ◽

2015 ◽

Keyword(s):

Euro Area ◽

Ownership Structure ◽

Public Debt ◽

Focal Point ◽

Quantitative Easing ◽

Southern Europe ◽

Bond Yields ◽

German Government ◽

Content Type ◽

Private Investors

Significance While the scope for widespread contagion across Southern Europe is much more limited this time around because of the new ownership structure of Greece's public debt -- more than 80% of the stock is held by the official sector, in stark contrast to end-2011 when private investors held the bulk of Greek bonds -- a loss of confidence in the ECB's ability to implement a credible and effective programme of quantitative easing (QE) could increase investors' sensitivity to Greece's political woes. Impacts Despite Greece's re-emergence as a focal point for market anxiety, the bond yields of Portugal, Spain and Italy remain at near-record lows. This is partly due to market expectations of full-blown QE by the ECB. Yet Draghi must come up with a QE programme that is both credible and has the backing of a German government wary of further credit risk.

Download Full-text