Urbanization is considered as a main indicator of regional economic development due to its positive effect on promoting industrial development; however, many regions, especially developing countries, are troubled by its negative effect — the aggravating environmental pollution. Many researchers have indicated that rapid urbanization stimulated the expansion of industrial production scale and increased industrial pollutant emissions. However, this judgement contains a grave deficiency in that urbanization not only expands industrial production scales but can also increase industrial labour productivity and change the industrial structure. To modify this deficiency, we first decompose the influence which urbanization impacts on industrial pollutant emissions into the scale effect, the intensive effect and the structure effect by using the Kaya Identity and the LMDI Method; second, we perform an empirical study of the three effects’ impacts by applying the spatial panel model with data from 282 Chinese cities between 2003 and 2013. Our results indicate that (1) there are significant reverse U-shapes between Chinese urbanization rate and its industrial pollutant emissions; (2) the scale effect and the structure effect have aggravated Chinese industrial waste water discharge, sulphur dioxide emissions and soot (dust) emissions, while the intensive effect has generated a decreasing and ameliorative impact on that aggravated trend. The definite relationship between urbanization and industrial pollutant emissions depends on the combined influence of the scale effect, the intensive effect and the structure effect; (3) there are significant spatial autocorrelations of industrial pollutant emissions between Chinese cities, but the spatial spillover effect from other cities does not aggravate local urban industrial pollutant emissions, we offer an explanation to this contradiction that the vast rural areas surrounding Chinese cities have served as sponge belts and have absorbed the spatial spillover of cities’ industrial pollutant emissions. According to the results, we argue that this type of decomposition of the influence into three effects is necessary and meaningful, it establishes a solid foundation for understanding the relationship between urbanization and industrial pollutant emissions, and effectively helps to meet relative policy making.
Urbanization and Its Effects on Industrial Pollutant emissions: An Empirical Study of a Chinese Case with the Spatial Panel Model
