Technological progress and effects of (Supra) regional innovation and production collaboration. An agent-based model simulation study

Author(s):  
Ben Vermeulen ◽  
Andreas Pyka
2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 19-24
Author(s):  
I.Y. Davydenko ◽  
R.W. Fransen

Author(s):  
Hao Wu ◽  
Lingbo Liu ◽  
Yang Yu ◽  
Zhenghong Peng ◽  
Hongzan Jiao ◽  
...  

Abstract:Commuting of residents in big city often brings tidal traffic pressure or congestions. Understanding the causes behind this phenomenon is of great significance for urban space optimization. Various spatial big data make possible the fine description of urban residents travel behaviors, and bring new approaches to related studies. The present study focuses on two aspects: one is to obtain relatively accurate features of commuting behaviors by using mobile phone data, and the other is to simulate commuting behaviors of residents through the agent-based model and inducing backward the causes of congestion. Taking the Baishazhou area of Wuhan, a local area of a mega city in China, as a case study, travel behaviors of commuters are simulated: the spatial context of the model is set up using the existing urban road network and by dividing the area into travel units; then using the mobile phone call detail records (CDR) of a month, statistics of residents' travel during the four time slots in working day mornings are acquired and then used to generated the OD matrix of travels at different time slots; and then the data are imported into the model for simulation. By the preset rules of congestion, the agent-based model can effectively simulate the traffic conditions of each traffic intersection, and can also induce backward the causes of traffic congestion using the simulation results and the OD matrix. Finally, the model is used for the evaluation of road network optimization, which shows evident effects of the optimizing measures adopted in relieving congestion, and thus also proves the value of this method in urban studies.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula Sanz-Leon ◽  
Nathan J Stevenson ◽  
Robyn Margaret Stuart ◽  
Romesh G Abeysuriya ◽  
James C Pang ◽  
...  

Objectives: To assess the risk of sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in Queensland (Australia) in the presence of high-transmission variants of the virus. Design: We used an agent-based model Covasim and the demographics, policies, and interventions implemented in the state. Using the calibrated model, we simulated possible epidemic trajectories that could eventuate due to leakage of infected cases with high-transmission variants, during a period of zero community transmission. Setting: Model calibration covered the first-wave period from early March 2020 to May 2020. Predicted epidemic trajectories were simulated from early February 2021 to late March 2021. Participants: None (simulation study). Main outcomes: A calibrated model of COVID-19 epidemiology in Queensland; the conditions that could lead to an outbreak; and how likely that situation is to occur. Results: Simulations showed that one infected agent with the ancestral (A.2.2) variant has a 14% chance of crossing a threshold of sustained community transmission (i.e., > 5 infections per day, more than 3 days in a row), assuming no change in the prevailing preventative and counteracting policies. However, one agent carrying a more infectious variant (e.g., B.1.1.7) has a 43% chance of crossing the same threshold; a threefold increase. Doubling the average number of daily tests results in a decrease of this probability from 43% to 23%. Conclusions: The introduction of even a small number of people infected with high-transmission variants dramatically increases the probability of sustained community transmission in Queensland.


2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Wu ◽  
Lingbo Liu ◽  
Yang Yu ◽  
Zhenghong Peng ◽  
Hongzan Jiao ◽  
...  

The commute of residents in a big city often brings tidal traffic pressure or congestions. Understanding the causes behind this phenomenon is of great significance for urban space optimization. Various spatial big data make the fine description of urban residents’ travel behaviors possible, and bring new approaches to related studies. The present study focuses on two aspects: one is to obtain relatively accurate features of commuting behaviors by using mobile phone data, and the other is to simulate commuting behaviors of residents through the agent-based model and inducing backward the causes of congestion. Taking the Baishazhou area of Wuhan, a local area of a mega city in China, as a case study, we simulated the travel behaviors of commuters: the spatial context of the model is set up using the existing urban road network and by dividing the area into space units. Then, using the mobile phone call detail records of a month, statistics of residents’ travel during the four time slots in working day mornings are acquired and then used to generate the Origin-Destination matrix of travels at different time slots, and the data are imported into the model for simulation. Under the preset rules of congestion, the agent-based model can effectively simulate the traffic conditions of each traffic intersection, and can induce backward the causes of traffic congestion using the simulation results and the Origin-Destination matrix. Finally, the model is used for the evaluation of road network optimization, which shows evident effects of the optimizing measures adopted in relieving congestion, and thus also proves the value of this method in urban studies.


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