Development of a Generalization Bass Diffusion Model for Chinese Electric Vehicles Considering Charging Stations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yushan Li ◽  
Gangyi Ma ◽  
Lefei Li
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Bass Diffusion ◽  
Charging Stations ◽  
Bass Diffusion Model

scholarly journals Bass Diffusion Model Adaptation Considering Public Policies to Improve Electric Vehicle Sales—A Brazilian Case Study

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 5435
Author(s):  
Leonardo Bitencourt ◽  
Tiago Abud ◽  
Rachel Santos ◽  
Bruno Borba
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Social Indicators ◽  
Passenger Cars ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
Bass Diffusion ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bass Diffusion Model

The global fleet of electric vehicles (EV) has been rising in recent years, and public policies can play an important role in this scene. The objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of public policies in the diffusion of EVs in Brazil, based on Beck’s adaptation for the Bass diffusion model. This modification on the Bass model allows the estimation of EV diffusion, taking into account the direct and indirect economic influence of the main EV incentive instruments used worldwide. In addition, this work conducts a forecast of the total passenger cars in Brazil through a regression model, considering macroeconomic and social indicators. The results indicate that EV high prices may still be the major barrier for EV diffusion in Brazil over the studied horizon, keeping them inaccessible to the majority of the population. Therefore, policies aimed at subsidizing EVs may be more effective in stimulating EV sales.

scholarly journals Combining Diffusion and Grey Models Based on Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms to Forecast Motherboard Shipments

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Fu-Kwun Wang ◽  
Yu-Yao Hsiao ◽  
Ku-Kuang Chang
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Optimization Algorithms ◽  
Evolutionary Optimization ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms ◽  
Bass Diffusion ◽  
Bass Diffusion Model

It is important for executives to predict the future trends. Otherwise, their companies cannot make profitable decisions and investments. The Bass diffusion model can describe the empirical adoption curve for new products and technological innovations. The Grey model provides short-term forecasts using four data points. This study develops a combined model based on the rolling Grey model (RGM) and the Bass diffusion model to forecast motherboard shipments. In addition, we investigate evolutionary optimization algorithms to determine the optimal parameters. Our results indicate that the combined model using a hybrid algorithm outperforms other methods for the fitting and forecasting processes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

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