scholarly journals Bass Diffusion Model Adaptation Considering Public Policies to Improve Electric Vehicle Sales—A Brazilian Case Study

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 5435
Author(s):  
Leonardo Bitencourt ◽  
Tiago Abud ◽  
Rachel Santos ◽  
Bruno Borba
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Social Indicators ◽  
Passenger Cars ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
Bass Diffusion ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bass Diffusion Model

The global fleet of electric vehicles (EV) has been rising in recent years, and public policies can play an important role in this scene. The objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of public policies in the diffusion of EVs in Brazil, based on Beck’s adaptation for the Bass diffusion model. This modification on the Bass model allows the estimation of EV diffusion, taking into account the direct and indirect economic influence of the main EV incentive instruments used worldwide. In addition, this work conducts a forecast of the total passenger cars in Brazil through a regression model, considering macroeconomic and social indicators. The results indicate that EV high prices may still be the major barrier for EV diffusion in Brazil over the studied horizon, keeping them inaccessible to the majority of the population. Therefore, policies aimed at subsidizing EVs may be more effective in stimulating EV sales.

Product Diffusion Model Associated with Dynamic Market Environment the Case of Mini Passenger Vehicle in China

2011 ◽  
Vol 135-136 ◽  
pp. 694-701
Author(s):  
Xiao Yu Zhao ◽  
Ai Guo Cheng ◽  
Zhi Hua Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Product Diffusion ◽  
Passenger Vehicle ◽  
Market Environment ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Environment Variables ◽  
Bass Diffusion ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bass Diffusion Model

Based on the theory of diffusion, dynamic market environment is incorporated in the classical Bass diffusion model. The model which assumes that dynamic market environment variables simultaneously influenced the product diffusion at different level is proposed to examine the impact of dynamic market environment on product diffusion. The results of China mini passenger vehicle in recent 11 years indicate that the market environment acts an important role in product diffusion．Meanwhile，the empirical results also validate the effectiveness of incorporating dynamic market environment variables in diffusion model．

scholarly journals Optimized Strategic Planning of Future Norwegian Low-Voltage Networks with a Genetic Algorithm Applying Empirical Electric Vehicle Charging Data

Electricity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-109
Author(s):  
Julian Wruk ◽  
Kevin Cibis ◽  
Matthias Resch ◽  
Hanne Sæle ◽  
Markus Zdrallek
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Low Voltage ◽  
Network Planning ◽  
Voltage Regulation ◽  
Electric Vehicle Charging ◽  
Vehicle Charging ◽  
The Impact

This article outlines methods to facilitate the assessment of the impact of electric vehicle charging on distribution networks at planning stage and applies them to a case study. As network planning is becoming a more complex task, an approach to automated network planning that yields the optimal reinforcement strategy is outlined. Different reinforcement measures are weighted against each other in terms of technical feasibility and costs by applying a genetic algorithm. Traditional reinforcements as well as novel solutions including voltage regulation are considered. To account for electric vehicle charging, a method to determine the uptake in equivalent load is presented. For this, measured data of households and statistical data of electric vehicles are combined in a stochastic analysis to determine the simultaneity factors of household load including electric vehicle charging. The developed methods are applied to an exemplary case study with Norwegian low-voltage networks. Different penetration rates of electric vehicles on a development path until 2040 are considered.

scholarly journals The Development of Strategies to Reduce Exhaust Emissions from Passenger Cars in Rzeszow City—Poland. A Preliminary Assessment of the Results Produced by the Increase of E-Fleet

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1046
Author(s):  
Maksymilian Mądziel ◽  
Tiziana Campisi ◽  
Artur Jaworski ◽  
Giovanni Tesoriere
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Present Report ◽  
Exhaust Emissions ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Passenger Cars ◽  
Particulate Concentration ◽  
The Impact

Urban agglomerations close to road infrastructure are particularly exposed to harmful exhaust emissions from motor vehicles and this problem is exacerbated at road intersections. Roundabouts are one of the most popular intersection designs in recent years, making traffic flow smoother and safer, but especially at peak times they are subject to numerous stop-and-go operations by vehicles, which increase the dispersion of emissions with high particulate matter rates. The study focused on a specific area of the city of Rzeszow in Poland. This country is characterized by the current composition of vehicle fleets connected to combustion engine vehicles. The measurement of the concentration of particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) by means of a preliminary survey campaign in the vicinity of the intersection made it possible to assess the impact of vehicle traffic on the dispersion of pollutants in the air. The present report presents some strategies to be implemented in the examined area considering a comparison of current and project scenarios characterized both by a modification of the road geometry (through the introduction of a turbo roundabout) and the composition of the vehicular flow with the forthcoming diffusion of electric vehicles. The study presents an exemplified methodology for comparing scenarios aimed at optimizing strategic choices for the local administration and also shows the benefits of an increased electric fleet. By processing the data with specific tools and comparing the scenarios, it was found that a conversion of 25% of the motor vehicles to electric vehicles in the current fleet has reduced the concentration of PM10 by about 30% along the ring road, has led to a significant reduction in the length of particulate concentration of the motorway, and it has also led to a significant reduction in the length of the particulate concentration for the access roads to the intersection.

scholarly journals Combining Diffusion and Grey Models Based on Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms to Forecast Motherboard Shipments

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Fu-Kwun Wang ◽  
Yu-Yao Hsiao ◽  
Ku-Kuang Chang
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Optimization Algorithms ◽  
Evolutionary Optimization ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms ◽  
Bass Diffusion ◽  
Bass Diffusion Model

It is important for executives to predict the future trends. Otherwise, their companies cannot make profitable decisions and investments. The Bass diffusion model can describe the empirical adoption curve for new products and technological innovations. The Grey model provides short-term forecasts using four data points. This study develops a combined model based on the rolling Grey model (RGM) and the Bass diffusion model to forecast motherboard shipments. In addition, we investigate evolutionary optimization algorithms to determine the optimal parameters. Our results indicate that the combined model using a hybrid algorithm outperforms other methods for the fitting and forecasting processes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

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