Bass Diffusion Model Adaptation Considering Public Policies to Improve Electric Vehicle Sales—A Brazilian Case Study

The global fleet of electric vehicles (EV) has been rising in recent years, and public policies can play an important role in this scene. The objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of public policies in the diffusion of EVs in Brazil, based on Beck’s adaptation for the Bass diffusion model. This modification on the Bass model allows the estimation of EV diffusion, taking into account the direct and indirect economic influence of the main EV incentive instruments used worldwide. In addition, this work conducts a forecast of the total passenger cars in Brazil through a regression model, considering macroeconomic and social indicators. The results indicate that EV high prices may still be the major barrier for EV diffusion in Brazil over the studied horizon, keeping them inaccessible to the majority of the population. Therefore, policies aimed at subsidizing EVs may be more effective in stimulating EV sales.

Implementing Smart City Technologies into Management Mechanism of Municipal Formations

Purpose of the study. The purpose of the scientific article is to form a toolkit that makes it possible to assess the feasibility of introducing Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of a municipal formation based on the current state of the territory development. The achievement of this goal is regulated by the processes of considering the features of the Smart City concept in terms of the municipal formation development, generation of author's indicators for assessing the feasibility of introducing Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of the municipal formation, the development of a simulation model for assessing the feasibility of introducing Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of the municipal formation. The purpose of the study will allow confirming or rejecting the hypothesis about the advisability of introducing Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of the municipal formation. Materials and methods. The research instrumental apparatus is based on the use of the following methods: the method for identifying essential characteristics, theoretical representation, data grouping, assessment, simulation modeling, Bass diffusion method, and graphical representations. The application of theoretical methods is aimed at studying indicators for assessing the feasibility of introducing Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of a municipal formation. The simulation modeling methods and Bass diffusion method will focus attention on the possibility of predicting the management mechanism of a municipal formation with the Smart City concept. Results. Today, the postulates of the Smart City concept are not used within the framework of the municipal formation management mechanism. The study led to the conclusion that the Smart City concept is used for the development of some directions of the municipal formation (for example, the urban infrastructure). The lack of a regulatory and legal framework at the local level in the field of Smart-management and Smart-design shows the impossibility of assessing the feasibility of introducing Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of a municipal formation. At the municipal level, there is no effective toolkit for assessing the feasibility of introducing Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of a municipal formation. On the one hand, simulation modeling acts as a tool for accumulating and simplifying the parameters for assessing the feasibility of introducing Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of a municipal formation. On the other hand, simulation modeling focuses the attention on the process of forecasting the development of directions of the municipal formation management mechanism after Smart City technologies introduction. Within the framework of the study, the following conclusions were formed: Smart City concept is not adapted to the modern conditions of the development of the management mechanism of a municipal formation; the absence of a methodology for assessing the feasibility of introducing Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of a municipal formation doesn’t allow implementing effective measures for the development of small territories; simulation modeling is a rather interesting tool for medium-term forecasting of the feasibility of introducing Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of a municipal formation. Conclusion. To introduce Smart City technologies into the management mechanism of a municipal formation, it is necessary to use modern assessment and simulation modeling tools to form an idea of the result of actions taken in the current period and in the medium term.

New tourism product forecasting – application of Bass Diffusion Model and Grey Forecasting Model

Previous researches usually applied Bass diffusion model (BDM) in forecasting the new product in various areas. This is the first application of BDM to the new tourism product since the model had been developed by Frank M. Bass in 1969. On the other hand, Grey forecasting model able to deal with limited number of data. Both BDM and grey forecasting model have been used in various areas in the forecasting studies. Taking advantages of both models, the combination of both Bass and grey model, called grey Bass forecasting model is applied in the context of the new tourism product forecasting. The objective of this study is to forecast the new tourism product demand in Malaysia using the developed model. Yearly visitors from two ecotourism resorts in Pahang, Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya from 2014 until 2018 are used. The results show that both BDM and grey Bass forecasting model are suitable in forecasting the new tourism product. The authors also suggest other factors affecting the attendance of visitors to be included in further research to conclude which model perform better in the future.

The Contagion of Pneumonia in Older Persons: An Application of the Bass Diffusion Model

This aims to provide an understanding of the spread of pneumonia through analysis of the interaction between infected and potentially infected. Data from 2010 to 2018 on Pneumonia morbidity among older persons age 65 and above was extracted from the Department of Health Field Health Service Information System (FHSIS) annual reports. The data were used to represent the cumulative adopters by fitting them to the Bass diffusion model using the Bass Forecasting Spreadsheet. The number of new adopters was graphed to forecast the diffusion of Pneumonia. The number of cases is expected to increase. The adoption rate in 2024 will be around 45% of the current population. Morbidity of pneumonia is expected to peak in the year 2200, 190 years after the first data. The use of the model provided an insight into the cumulative nature of pneumonia infection due to the interaction between infected and the potentially infected.