Abstract. The strategies and actions in the management of African River
Basins in a warming climate environment have been studied. Using the Gurara
Reservoir Catchment in North-West Nigeria as a case study, summations were
proposed using hypothetical climate scenarios considering the Global Climate
Models prediction and linear trend of the data. Four (4) proposed scenarios
of temperature increase (1 % and 2 %) coupled with a decrease in
precipitation of (−5 % and −10 %) were combined and applied for the
study area. The Water Evaluation and Planning Tool was used to model and
evaluates the impact of the earth's rising temperature and declining
rainfall on the hydrology and availability of water by investigating its
resilience to climate change. Modelling results indicate a reduction in
available water within the study area from 4.3 % to 3.5 % compared to
the baseline with no climate change scenario, revealing the current water
management strategy as not sustainable, uncoordinated, and resulting in
overexploitation. The findings could assist in managing future water
resources in the catchment by accentuating the need to put in place
appropriate adaptation measures to foster resilience to climate change.
Practically, it is pertinent to shape more effective policies and
regulations within catchments for effective water resources management in
reducing water shortage as well as achieving downstream water needs and
power benefit in thefuture, while also allowing flexibility in the operation
of a reservoir with the ultimate goal of adapting to climate change.
System dynamics model of sustainable water resources management using the Nexus Water-Food-Energy approach
