Water Carrying Capacity Evaluation Method Based on Cloud Model Theory and an Evidential Reasoning Approach

The scientific and reasonable evaluation of the carrying capacity of water resources is of guiding significance for solving the issues of water resource shortages and pollution control. It is also an important method for realizing the sustainable development of water resources. Aiming at an evaluation of the carrying capacity of water resources, an evaluation model based on the cloud model theory and evidential reasoning approach is studied. First, based on the existing indicators, a water resources evaluation index system based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) model is constructed, and a classification method of carrying capacity grade is designed. The cloud model theory is used to realize the transformation between the measured value of indicators and the degree of correlation. Second, to obtain the weight of the evaluation index, the weight method of the index weights model based on the entropy weight method and evidential reasoning approach is proposed. Then, the reliability distribution function of the evaluation index and the graded probability distribution of the carrying capacity of water resources are obtained by an evidential reasoning approach. Finally, the evaluation method of the carrying capacity of water resources is constructed, and specific steps are provided. The proposed method is applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity for Hunan Province, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the method proposed in the present study. This paper applies this method of the evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Hunan Province from 2010 to 2019. It is concluded that the water resources carrying capacity of Hunan Province belongs to III~V, which is between the critical state and the strong carrying capacity state. The carrying capacity of the province’s water resources is basically on the rise. This shows that the carrying capacity of water resources in Hunan Province is in good condition, and corresponding protective measures should be taken to continue the current state.

Dynamic evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on set pair analysis and partial connection number

In order to describe the micro motion between the connection number components and seek a more applicable evaluation model, quantitatively evaluate and analyze regional water resources carrying capacity (WRCC). Firstly, an evaluation index system and grade standards of regional WRCC were constructed. Then, a method for determining the connection number was proposed, which considered the micro motion between the connection number components in system structure. Finally, built an evaluation model based on set pair analysis (SPA) and partial connection number (PCN) that used subtraction set pair potential (SPP) to identify vulnerability factors, and identification results were compared with total partial connection number (TPCN). The model was applied to Huaibei City, Anhui Province, China. The results showed that: the WRCC grade value was between 2 and 3 that was poor; the support and regulation subsystem grade value was between 2 and 3, and the pressure subsystem grade value was between 1 and 2. SPP identified that the support force and regulation force subsystem were the vulnerable subsystems. Eight indexes such as water resources per capita, rate of ecological water consumption and density of population were the main indicators causing the poor WRCC, which were in good agreement with the local measured data. In addition, the SPP and TPCN are compared to further verify rationality of the connection number determination method and reliability of the identification results. The model established in this paper has strong applicability and can also be used for the dynamic evaluation of other resources, environment and ecological carrying capacity. The results in this study can provide a scientific basis for water resources management and decision-making.

Comprehensive assessment of urban water resources carrying capacity based on basin unit: a case study of Qingdao, China

With the quick development of social economy, the sharp contradiction between supply and demand of urban water resources is becoming much more obvious. Comprehensive assessment of urban water resources carrying capacity is of great significance to urban sustainable development planning. In this study, the urban water resources carrying capacity of Qingdao based on basin unit over 2010–2030 is predicted using analytic hierarchy process and system dynamics method. The results showed that the total water demand of all the 9 basins have an upward annual trend from 2017 to 2030, among which the domestic water consumption increase obviously. The urban water resource carrying capacity indexes in all basin over 2017–2030 show a downward annual trend under the current social development model. So it is urgent to improve the water resource carrying capacity of each river basin by means of industrial structure optimization and upgrading and active development of new water sources.

Uncertain Analysis of Fuzzy Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study in Zanhuang County, North China Plain

The scientific and accurate evaluation of water resources carrying capacity has good social, environmental and resource benefits. Reasonable selection of evaluation parameters is the key step to realize efficient and sustainable development of water resources. Taking Zanhuang County in the North China Plain as the research area, this study selected fuzzy comprehensive evaluation models with different weights in the established evaluation index framework to explore the sources of uncertainty affecting the evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity. By using the sensitivity analysis method of index weight, the index with the biggest influence factor on the evaluation result is selected to reduce the uncertainty problems such as index redundancy and small correlation degree. The results show that the correlation and reliable of comprehensive evaluation value obtained by different weight methods is different. The evaluation result obtained by using the analytic hierarchy process is more relevant than the entropy weight method, and it is more consistent with the actual load-bearing situation. The study of sensitivity index shows that water area index is the biggest factor affecting the change of evaluation results, and water resources subsystem and socio-economic subsystem play a dominant role in the whole evaluation framework. The results show that strengthening the data quality control of index assignment and weight method is helpful to reduce the error of water resources carrying capacity evaluation. It can also provide scientific basis for the improvement of fuzzy evaluation model.

Variable fuzzy evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in the Tarim River Basin, China

As one of the most serious water-shortage regions of China, the shortage of water resources and ecological deuteration of the Tarim River Basin has increasingly attracted attention, and management and sustainable utilization of water resources rely mostly on the understanding of their carrying capacity. In the present study, water resources carrying capacity of the Tarim River Basin was evaluated using a multi-dimensional perspective of nature, society and economy factors based on a variable fuzzy evaluation model for the 2018 hydroclimatic conditions. Evaluation model results rated Aksu, Kizilsu, Kashi and Hotan districts as grade 2, where water resources current use and overexploitation have reached a relatively high level combined with a limited water resources carrying capacity. Bazhou district, where the water resources carrying capacity is relatively higher was evaluated and rated as grade 1 by the model. It is urgent to put forward some strategies in order to protect and improve the water resources carrying capacity in the Tarim River Basin which include promoting more efficient utilization of water conservation schemes, strengthening the long-term investment in environmental protection, improving the ratio of industrial wastewater treatment and reducing the industrial water quota. The results of the present study are aimed to be a beneficial guide in the planning and management of the Tarim's River basin water resources and possibly for other similar river basins.

Daya Dukung Sumberdaya Air dan Indeks Kekritisan Air Sub DAS Cisokan Hulu

Upper Cisokan sub-watershed is a natural ecosystem of water resource providers that can be used directly or indirectly by the community in it. The population rate and sectoral needs in a sub-watershed area are estimated have put pressure to the water resources balance. The value of the carrying capacity and the water criticality index in the existing condition and its projections for the next 10 years are known from the water balance analysis. The availability of water resources (Wn) was determined based on the flow rate probability (Q80) of Weibull Method, the value of groundwater estimation, springs and wells, and also the raw water supply of local water company. Water demand (qpt) was estimated based on Statistic data of Upper Cisokan sub-Watershed 2020 and the projection for 2030, industrial data, agricultural area data, livestock production data, and fishery area data. The water resources carrying capacity (Cw) of the Upper Cisokan sub-watershed is generally still adequate (High), but at the peak of the dry season, namely June to November, the water carrying capacity status shows a value of 1.84 (Critical) to 0.24 (Deficit). In general, the water criticality index is still safe (Not Critical), but in the dry period, especially in July, August and November, it shows a value of 125% to 421% (Very Critical). To anticipate the water crisis, all stakeholders should allocate water efficiently according to its availability. So that the sub-watershed ecosystem is sustainably provide ecosystem services for providing water resources to the community. Key words: Ecosystem Services, Water Supply, Water Demand, Water Balance, Water Resources Carrying Capacity, Water Criticality Index, Upper Cisokan Sub Watershed