Aggregation of Epistemic Uncertainty: A New Interpretation of the Certainty Factor with Possibility Theory and Causation Events

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koichi Yamada
Keyword(s):  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Possibility Theory ◽  
Certainty Factor ◽  
New Interpretation

Aggregation of Epistemic Uncertainty in Forms of Possibility and Certainty Factors

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-94
Author(s):  
Koichi Yamada ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Information Source ◽  
Possibility Theory ◽  
Source Model ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Combination Rule ◽  
Combination Rules ◽  
Possibility Distributions ◽  
New Interpretation ◽  
Sound Theoretical Basis

Uncertainty aggregation is an important reasoning for making decisions in the real world, which is full of uncertainty. The paper proposes an information source model for aggregating epistemic uncertainties about truth and discusses uncertainty aggregation in the form of possibility distributions. A new combination rule of possibilities for truth is proposed. Then, this paper proceeds to discussion about a traditional but seemingly forgotten representation of uncertainty (i.e., certainty factors (CFs)) and proposes a new interpretation based on possibility theory. CFs have been criticized because of their lack of sound mathematical interpretation from the viewpoint of probability. Thus, this paper first establishes a theory for a sound interpretation using possibility theory. Then it examines aggregation of CFs based on the interpretation and some combination rules of possibility distributions. The paper proposes several combination rules for CFs having sound theoretical basis, one of which is exactly the same as the oft-criticized combination.

scholarly journals Uncertainty Evaluation of Water Inrush in Karst Tunnels Based on Epistemic Uncertainty with Possibility Theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Yiqing Hao ◽  
Hao Lu ◽  
Yehui Shi ◽  
Hao Geng ◽  
Xi J ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Mechanical Model ◽  
Poisson Ratio ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Water Inrush ◽  
Possibility Theory ◽  
Mathematical Structure ◽  
Karst Tunnel ◽  
Uncertainty Analyses ◽  
Aleatory And Epistemic Uncertainty

In the risk assessment of water inrush in karst tunnel, it is most important to provide an available theoretical model for qualifying the epistemic uncertainties due to a lack of knowledge and information. Firstly, a mechanical model dependent on geology is introduced associating with four parameters, i.e., the elastic modulus E, the Poisson ratio μ, the water differential pressure q, and the tunnel radius a. Then, a mathematical model representing epistemic uncertainty is represented with probability theory and possibility theory. The methodology was computerized to calculate the distribution of the margin and uncertainty and then to determine the ratio of “margin/uncertainty.” Analyses involving possibility theory and possibility theory are illustrated with the same engineering example used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses. The comparison between the uses of possibility theory and probability theory for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty indicates that the possibility is not only has a better mathematical structure than probability theory but also has some challenges.

Fuzzy Modeling of Imprecise Material Parameters in the Analysis of Metal Matrix Composite Structures

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erich Wehrle ◽  
Max Wedekind ◽  
Horst Baier
Keyword(s):  
Structural Analysis ◽  
Composite Structures ◽  
Mechanical Response ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Possibility Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Modeling ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Load Factor ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Fuzzy Methods

Engineering information is often uncertain, deviated, imperfect, erroneous, imprecise, etc. Fuzzy methods, based on possibility theory are well suited for describing epistemic uncertainty. Included in epistemic uncertainty are data sets where only few samples are available and are appropriately modeled with fuzzy methods. The resulting fuzzy parameters can then be used in structural analysis, allowing for nondeterministic consideration and, therefore, uncertainty assessment. In this study, different approaches to construct fuzzy membership functions are discussed and compared. Further, the influence of fuzzy modeling, or fuzzification, is evaluated within the framework of structural analysis and then in the safety factor assessment. The mechanical response was calculated using finite element analysis with uncertain material, evaluating stress and buckling load factor. Finally, the fuzzy safety factors were quantified for the different fuzzification methods, showing the importance of uncertainty consideration.

scholarly journals A Possibilistic Approach for the Prediction of the Risk of Interference between Power and Signal Lines Onboard Satellites

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Toscani ◽  
Flavia Grassi ◽  
Giordano Spadacini ◽  
Sergio A. Pignari
Keyword(s):  
Electromagnetic Compatibility ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Possibility Theory ◽  
Power Line ◽  
Wide Frequency Range ◽  
Mutual Position ◽  
Differential Signal ◽  
Fuzzy Variables ◽  
Signal Line

This work presents a hybrid random/fuzzy approach for uncertainty quantification in electromagnetic modelling, which combines probability and possibility theory in order to properly account for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, respectively. In particular, a typical intrasystem electromagnetic-compatibility problem in aerospace applications is considered, where some parameters are affected by fabrication tolerances or other kinds of randomness (aleatory uncertainty) and others are inherently deterministic but unknown due to human’s lack of knowledge (epistemic uncertainty). Namely, a differential-signal line in a satellite is subject to crosstalk due to a nearby dc power line carrying conducted emissions generated by a dc-dc converter in a wide frequency range (up to 100 MHz). The nonideal features of the signal line (e.g., weak unbalance of terminal loads) are treated as random variables (RVs), whereas the mutual position of signal and power line is characterized by possibility theory through suitable fuzzy variables. Such a hybrid approach allows deriving a general and exhaustive description of uncertainty of the target variable of interest, that is, the differential noise voltage induced in the signal line. The obtained results are compared versus a conventional Monte Carlo simulation where all parameters are treated as RVs, and the advantages of the proposed approach (in terms of completeness and richness of information gained about sensitivity of results) are highlighted.

Esotericism and the “Coded Word” in Mormonism

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-54
Author(s):  
Clyde Forsberg Jr.
Keyword(s):  
Popular Religion ◽  
Latter Day Saints ◽  
Social Commentary ◽  
Joseph Smith ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
Book Of Mormon ◽  
Divine Inspiration ◽  
History Of ◽  
New Interpretation ◽  
New Religion

In the history of American popular religion, the Latter-day Saints, or Mormons, have undergone a series of paradigmatic shifts in order to join the Christian mainstream, abandoning such controversial core doctrines and institutions as polygamy and the political kingdom of God. Mormon historians have played an important role in this metamorphosis, employing a version (if not perversion) of the Church-Sect Dichotomy to change the past in order to control the future, arguing, in effect, that founder Joseph Smith Jr’s erstwhile magical beliefs and practices gave way to a more “mature” and bible-based self-understanding which is then said to best describe the religion that he founded in 1830. However, an “esoteric approach” as Faivre and Hanegraaff understand the term has much to offer the study of Mormonism as an old, new religion and the basis for a more even methodological playing field and new interpretation of Mormonism as equally magical (Masonic) and biblical (Evangelical) despite appearances. This article will focus on early Mormonism’s fascination with and employment of ciphers, or “the coded word,” essential to such foundation texts as the Book of Mormon and “Book of Abraham,” as well as the somewhat contradictory, albeit colonial understanding of African character and destiny in these two hermetic works of divine inspiration and social commentary in the Latter-day Saint canonical tradition.

BKR (BADAN KEAMANAN RAKYAT): Cikal Bakal Tentara Indonesia?

Metahumaniora ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 389
Author(s):  
Widyo Nugrahanto
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Civil Defense ◽  
The Other ◽  
Main Subject ◽  
Japanese Occupation ◽  
Historical Method ◽  
New Interpretation

AbstrakPenelitian ini berjudul BKR (Badan Kemanan Rakyat):Cikal Bakal Tentara Indonesia?!. Penelitian ini merupakan interpretasi baru tentang cikal bakal TNI, yang umumnya banyak merujuk pada PETA (Pembela Tanah Air). Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah Metode Sejarah.Metode Sejarah memiliki empat tahapan yaitu Heuristik, Kritik, Interpretasi dan Historiografi.Sumber-sumber penelitian ini menggunakan koran-koran sezaman, majalah sezaman, dan buku. BKR dianggap sebagai cikal bakal TNI didasarkan beberapa sebab. Pertama, atas dasar legalitas formal, PETA telah dibubarkan sehingga BKR adalah satuan militer yang pertama kali dibentuk setelah Indonesia merdeka. BKR selanjutnya melahirkan pembentukan TKR (Tentara Keamanan Rakyat), TKR (Tentara Keselamatan Rakyat), TRI (Tentara Republik Indonesia) dan TNI (Tentara Nasional Indonesia). Kedua, jika PETA dianggap sebagai cikal bakal TNI, maka KNIL dan beberapa satuan keprajuritan diabaikan. Padahal, beberapa bekas perwira KNIL memiliki peran penting di tubuh BKR hingga TNI.Kata kunci: BKR, Tentara, TNIAbstractThe main subject this study is BKR – Indonesian civil defense corps – as origin of Indonesian Military. This study is new interpretation about the origin of TNI (Indonesian National Armed Forces) now. Many opinion refer to PETA as civil defense corps in Japanese occupation era. Study emlpoys a Historical Method, which consists of four stage: Heuristic, Critic, Interpretation, Historiography. The study utilize some sources such as newspaper, magazine, and book. Main finding of this study is PETA had dispersed as legality and formally and BKR was formed as the firts corps after Independence of Indonesia. Futhermore, BKR changed to TKR (Tentara Keamanan Rakyat), TKR (Tentara Keselamatan Rakyat), TRI (Tentara Republik Indonesia) until TNI (Tentara Nasional Indonesia). If PETA is considered as origins of Indonesian Military, then it ignore KNIL – a colonial armed forces – and the other defence corps. Even though the eks KNIL’s officer have important role in military managenment of BKR until TNI.Keywords: BKR, Military, TNI

BKR (BADAN KEAMANAN RAKYAT): Cikal Bakal Tentara Indonesia?

Metahumaniora ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 389
Author(s):  
Widyo Nugrahanto
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Civil Defense ◽  
The Other ◽  
Main Subject ◽  
Japanese Occupation ◽  
Historical Method ◽  
New Interpretation

AbstrakPenelitian ini berjudul BKR (Badan Kemanan Rakyat):Cikal Bakal Tentara Indonesia?!. Penelitian ini merupakan interpretasi baru tentang cikal bakal TNI, yang umumnya banyak merujuk pada PETA (Pembela Tanah Air). Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah Metode Sejarah.Metode Sejarah memiliki empat tahapan yaitu Heuristik, Kritik, Interpretasi dan Historiografi.Sumber-sumber penelitian ini menggunakan koran-koran sezaman, majalah sezaman, dan buku. BKR dianggap sebagai cikal bakal TNI didasarkan beberapa sebab. Pertama, atas dasar legalitas formal, PETA telah dibubarkan sehingga BKR adalah satuan militer yang pertama kali dibentuk setelah Indonesia merdeka. BKR selanjutnya melahirkan pembentukan TKR (Tentara Keamanan Rakyat), TKR (Tentara Keselamatan Rakyat), TRI (Tentara Republik Indonesia) dan TNI (Tentara Nasional Indonesia). Kedua, jika PETA dianggap sebagai cikal bakal TNI, maka KNIL dan beberapa satuan keprajuritan diabaikan. Padahal, beberapa bekas perwira KNIL memiliki peran penting di tubuh BKR hingga TNI.Kata kunci: BKR, Tentara, TNIAbstractThe main subject this study is BKR – Indonesian civil defense corps – as origin of Indonesian Military. This study is new interpretation about the origin of TNI (Indonesian National Armed Forces) now. Many opinion refer to PETA as civil defense corps in Japanese occupation era. Study emlpoys a Historical Method, which consists of four stage: Heuristic, Critic, Interpretation, Historiography. The study utilize some sources such as newspaper, magazine, and book. Main finding of this study is PETA had dispersed as legality and formally and BKR was formed as the firts corps after Independence of Indonesia. Futhermore, BKR changed to TKR (Tentara Keamanan Rakyat), TKR (Tentara Keselamatan Rakyat), TRI (Tentara Republik Indonesia) until TNI (Tentara Nasional Indonesia). If PETA is considered as origins of Indonesian Military, then it ignore KNIL – a colonial armed forces – and the other defence corps. Even though the eks KNIL’s officer have important role in military managenment of BKR until TNI.Keywords: BKR, Military, TNI

A New Interpretation of the Structure and Solvent Dependence of the Far UV Circular Dichroism Spectrum of Short Oligopeptides

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anshuman Kumar ◽  
Reinhard Schweitzer-Stenner ◽  
Bryan Wong
Keyword(s):  
Density Functional ◽  
Density Functional Theory Calculations ◽  
Cd Spectra ◽  
Functional Theory ◽  
Polyproline Ii ◽  
Solvent Dependence ◽  
Explicit Consideration ◽  
New Interpretation ◽  
Implicit And Explicit ◽  
Explicit Water

In this work, we carry out new time-dependent density functional theory calculations on the cationic tripeptide GAG in implicit and explicit water to determine the transitions that give rise to the observed CD signals of polyproline II and β-strand conformations. Our results reveal a plethora of electronic transitions that are governed by configurational interactions between multiple molecular orbital transitions of comparable energy. We also show that reproducing the CD spectra of polyproline II and β-strand conformations requires the explicit consideration of water molecules. The structure dependence of delocalized occupied orbitals contributes to the experimentally-observed invalidation of Flory’s isolated pair hypothesis.

A New Interpretation of the Structure and Solvent Dependence of the Far UV Circular Dichroism Spectrum of Short Oligopeptides

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anshuman Kumar ◽  
Reinhard Schweitzer-Stenner ◽  
Bryan Wong
Keyword(s):  
Density Functional ◽  
Density Functional Theory Calculations ◽  
Cd Spectra ◽  
Functional Theory ◽  
Polyproline Ii ◽  
Solvent Dependence ◽  
Explicit Consideration ◽  
New Interpretation ◽  
Implicit And Explicit ◽  
Explicit Water

In this work, we carry out new time-dependent density functional theory calculations on the cationic tripeptide GAG in implicit and explicit water to determine the transitions that give rise to the observed CD signals of polyproline II and β-strand conformations. Our results reveal a plethora of electronic transitions that are governed by configurational interactions between multiple molecular orbital transitions of comparable energy. We also show that reproducing the CD spectra of polyproline II and β-strand conformations requires the explicit consideration of water molecules. The structure dependence of delocalized occupied orbitals contributes to the experimentally-observed invalidation of Flory’s isolated pair hypothesis.

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