Performance of CMIP5 global climate models for climate simulation in Southeast Asia

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suchada Kamworapan ◽  
Chinnawat Surussavadee
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Simulation

scholarly journals Performance of SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA multi-model experiments in simulating temperature and rainfall in Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 374-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Tuyet ◽  
Ngo Duc Thanh ◽  
Phan Van Tan
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Red River ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Red River Delta ◽  
North Central ◽  
Climate Downscaling

The study examined the performance of six regional climate experiments conducted under the framework of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA) project and their ensemble product (ENS) in simulating temperature at 2 m (T2m) and rainfall (R) in seven climatic sub-regions of Vietnam. The six experiments were named following the names of their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs), i.e., CNRM, CSIRO, ECEA, GFDL, HADG and MPI. The observation data for the period 1986–2005 from 66 stations in Vietnam were used to compare with the model outputs. Results showed that cold biases were prominent among the experiments and ENS well reproduced the seasonal cycle of temperature in the Northeast, Red River Delta, North Central and Central Highlands regions. For rainfall, all the experiments showed wet biases and CSIRO exhibited the best. A scoring system was elaborated to objectively rank the performance of the experiments and the ENS experiment was reported to be the best.

scholarly journals Evaluation of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Climatological Temperature and Precipitation for Southeast Asia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suchada Kamworapan ◽  
Chinnawat Surussavadee
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Total Error ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Ensemble Average ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Intercomparison Project

This study evaluates the performances of all forty different global climate models (GCMs) that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for simulating climatological temperature and precipitation for Southeast Asia. Historical simulations of climatological temperature and precipitation of the 40 GCMs for the 40-year period of 1960–1999 for both land and sea and those for the century of 1901–1999 for land are evaluated using observation and reanalysis datasets. Nineteen different performance metrics are employed. The results show that the performances of different GCMs vary greatly. CNRM-CM5-2 performs best among the 40 GCMs, where its total error is 3.25 times less than that of GCM performing worst. The performance of CNRM-CM5-2 is compared with those of the ensemble average of all 40 GCMs (40-GCM-Ensemble) and the ensemble average of the 6 best GCMs (6-GCM-Ensemble) for four categories, i.e., temperature only, precipitation only, land only, and sea only. While 40-GCM-Ensemble performs best for temperature, 6-GCM-Ensemble performs best for precipitation. 6-GCM-Ensemble performs best for temperature and precipitation simulations over sea, whereas CNRM-CM5-2 performs best over land. Overall results show that 6-GCM-Ensemble performs best and is followed by CNRM-CM5-2 and 40-GCM-Ensemble, respectively. The total errors of 6-GCM-Ensemble, CNRM-CM5-2, and 40-GCM-Ensemble are 11.84, 13.69, and 14.09, respectively. 6-GCM-Ensemble and CNRM-CM5-2 agree well with observations and can provide useful climate simulations for Southeast Asia. This suggests the use of 6-GCM-Ensemble and CNRM-CM5-2 for climate studies and projections for Southeast Asia.

Simulation and Projection of Summer Convective Afternoon Rainfall Activities over Southeast Asia in CMIP6 Models

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Wan-Ru Huang ◽  
Ya-Hui Chang ◽  
Liping Deng ◽  
Pin-Yi Liu
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Breeze ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
The Future ◽  
Local Weather

AbstractConvective afternoon rainfall (CAR) events, which tend to generate a local rainfall typically in the afternoon, are among the most frequently observed local weather patterns over Southeast Asia during summer. Using satellite precipitation estimations as an observational base for model evaluation, this study examines the applicability of ten global climate models provided by the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating the CAR activities over Southeast Asia. Analyses also focus on exploring the characteristics and maintenance mechanisms of related projections of CAR activities in the future. Our analyses of the historical simulation indicate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg are the two best models for simulating CAR activities (including amount, frequency, and intensity) over Southeast Asia. Analyses also demonstrate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg outperform their earlier version (i.e., EC-Earth) in CMIP5 owing to the increase in its spatial resolution in CMIP6. For future projections, our examinations of the differences in CAR activities between the future (2071–2100, under the ssp858 run) and the present (1985–2014, under historical run) indicate that CAR events will become fewer but more intense over most land areas of Southeast Asia. Possible causes of the projected increase (decrease) in CAR intensity (frequency) are attributed to the projected increase (decrease) in the local atmospheric humidity (sea breeze convergence and daytime thermal instability). These findings provide insight into how the local weather/climate over Southeast Asia is likely to change under global warming.

scholarly journals Improvement of ENSO Simulation Based on Intermodel Diversity

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 998-1015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Central Pacific

Abstract In this study, a new methodology is developed to improve the climate simulation of state-of-the-art coupled global climate models (GCMs), by a postprocessing based on the intermodel diversity. Based on the close connection between the interannual variability and climatological states, the distinctive relation between the intermodel diversity of the interannual variability and that of the basic state is found. Based on this relation, the simulated interannual variabilities can be improved, by correcting their climatological bias. To test this methodology, the dominant intermodel difference in precipitation responses during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated, and its relationship with climatological state. It is found that the dominant intermodel diversity of the ENSO precipitation in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is associated with the zonal shift of the positive precipitation center during El Niño. This dominant intermodel difference is significantly correlated with the basic states. The models with wetter (dryer) climatology than the climatology of the multimodel ensemble (MME) over the central Pacific tend to shift positive ENSO precipitation anomalies to the east (west). Based on the model’s systematic errors in atmospheric ENSO response and bias, the models with better climatological state tend to simulate more realistic atmospheric ENSO responses. Therefore, the statistical method to correct the ENSO response mostly improves the ENSO response. After the statistical correction, simulating quality of the MME ENSO precipitation is distinctively improved. These results provide a possibility that the present methodology can be also applied to improving climate projection and seasonal climate prediction.

scholarly journals Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models: evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 277-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Schiemann ◽  
Panos Athanasiadis ◽  
David Barriopedro ◽  
Francisco Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Katja Lohmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Global climate models (GCMs) are known to suffer from biases in the simulation of atmospheric blocking, and this study provides an assessment of how blocking is represented by the latest generation of GCMs. It is evaluated (i) how historical CMIP6 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations perform compared to CMIP5 simulations and (ii) how horizontal model resolution affects the simulation of blocking in the CMIP6-HighResMIP (PRIMAVERA – PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high-resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment) model ensemble, which is designed to address this type of question. Two blocking indices are used to evaluate the simulated mean blocking frequency and blocking persistence for the Euro-Atlantic and Pacific regions in winter and summer against the corresponding estimates from atmospheric reanalysis data. There is robust evidence that CMIP6 models simulate blocking frequency and persistence better than CMIP5 models in the Atlantic and Pacific and during winter and summer. This improvement is sizeable so that, for example, winter blocking frequency in the median CMIP5 model in a large Euro-Atlantic domain is underestimated by 33 % using the absolute geopotential height (AGP) blocking index, whereas the same number is 18 % for the median CMIP6 model. As for the sensitivity of simulated blocking to resolution, it is found that the resolution increase, from typically 100 to 20 km grid spacing, in most of the PRIMAVERA models, which are not re-tuned at the higher resolutions, benefits the mean blocking frequency in the Atlantic in winter and summer and in the Pacific in summer. Simulated blocking persistence, however, is not seen to improve with resolution. Our results are consistent with previous studies suggesting that resolution is one of a number of interacting factors necessary for an adequate simulation of blocking in GCMs. The improvements reported in this study hold promise for further reductions in blocking biases as model development continues.

scholarly journals RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2emissions

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (33) ◽  
pp. 19656-19657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher R. Schwalm ◽  
Spencer Glendon ◽  
Philip B. Duffy
Keyword(s):  
Close Agreement ◽  
Recent Progress ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Simulation Based

Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons. Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO2emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO2emissions in 2100.

Extreme Events in High Resolution CMCC Regional and Global Climate Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Antonella Sanna ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Myriam Montesarchio
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models
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