The Government Deficit and the Exchange Rate

1999 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 753-763 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Stoker
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

Cosmetic changes will not save Venezuelan economy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Domestic Currency ◽  
Economic Adjustment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

Significance Venezuela’s economic adjustment, announced on August 17 by President Nicolas Maduro, has met with international scepticism. There is little confidence that the redenomination of the domestic currency will achieve intended aims of reducing hyperinflation or kick-starting economic reactivation. Impacts The government will be under pressure to explain the economic measures, specifically the pegging of the exchange rate to the petro. The exodus of Venezuelans will accelerate despite efforts by neighbouring countries to prevent the outflow. Maduro’s claim that US sanctions are to blame for the woeful state of the economy will maintain credibility among government supporters.

scholarly journals Is Real Depreciation or More Government Deficit Expansionary? The Case of Slovenia

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Labor Cost ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
The Real ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of the real exchange rate, the government deficit and other relevant variables on aggregate output in Slovenia. Few of the previous studies have applied the AD/AS model to examine the impacts of major macroeconomic variables on aggregate output. This paper makes contributions to the literature by applying a rigorous model to examine how real GDP is affected by the real exchange rate, fiscal policy and other related variables. The exponential GARCH model is applied in empirical work. The paper finds that real depreciation of the Euro may affect Slovenia’s aggregate output positively or negatively and that more central government deficit as a percent of GDP does not affect aggregate output. In addition, Slovenia’s aggregate output is positively associated with the real stock price, the real oil price and real total labor cost or wage and is negatively influenced by the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. Recent real depreciation of the Euro would help Slovenia’s aggregate output whereas expansionary fiscal policy would not be effective in stimulating the economy.

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model Of Exchange Rate Determination And Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 44-55
Author(s):  
Aima Khan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Nonlinear Feedback ◽  
Exchange Rate Determination ◽  
Past Behavior ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

Objective: The objective of this paper is to develop a model of exchange rate determination and forecasting to provide reasonable forecasts for the exchange rate to facilitate long-term investments. Design: The study develops the model using the system dynamics method. Grounded on the fundamental theories, the model incorporates nonlinear feedback relationships of interest rate, inflation, per capita income, terms of trade, and oil prices with the exchange rate. Findings: The simulation results indicate the robustness of the model to mimic not only the long term past behavior of the exchange rate but also its ability to provide a reliable long-term forecast for the exchange rate. The model is portable and applies to any oil-exporting country after calibration. Policy Implications: The study has practical implications for individuals, businesses, and the Government because they are all influenced by the exchange rate movements. Specifically, this model provides a useful tool for long term strategic financial planning of oil firms. Originality: The study develops a model for exchange rate accounting for nonlinear feedback relationships among the variables.

scholarly journals PENGARUH SUBSIDI BBM TERHADAP IMPOR MINYAK BUMI PERIODE 1980 – 2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Riwi Sumantyo ◽  
Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Data Use ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

The study on the effect of fuel subsidies toward oil import is a controversial topicdiscussions. This study will explore the effect of fuel subsidies on oil import by addingseveral independent variables, consist of; the number of vehichles, the exchange rateand inflation. Data use time series data from 1980-2013. The tool of analyze is OrdinaryLeast Squares Method (OLS).Based on the results show that the simultaneous testexplains that the fuel subsidies, the number of vehichles, the exchange rate, and inflationhave a significant effect on oil import. However partially, the variables of fuel subsidies,the number of vehichles, and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effecton oil import. Inflation does not affect on oil import. The coefficient of determinationuses Adjusted R-square test is about 98%. The implication of this study is governmentscan increase oil production Indonesia. The government should facilitate the licensing ofinvestment and rejuvenate the old oil wells. It aims to reduce Indonesia dependence onoil import so that it can save foreign exchange reserves.

scholarly journals External Debt and its Impact on Exchange Rates in the Philippines

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-103
Author(s):  
Mikayla Mendoza ◽  
Andrew Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is a crucial macroeconomic factor within emerging and transition economies. External debt is a driving force for the growth of an economy. This study then aims to determine the impact of external debt on the exchange rate of the Philippines by examining the impact of external debt accumulation on the Philippines' exchange rates. The researcher applies a correlational time series analysis in order to capture the impact of external debt, debt services on external debt, and foreign reserves on the exchange rate of the Philippines within the period from 1980 to 2019. The relationships between variables based on the developed theoretical framework are analyzed through multiple regression analysis. Empirical results show that external debt and debt services positively impact the exchange rate, while foreign reserves exhibit a negative relationship. The corresponding coefficients indicate that a change in any of the independent variables will cause significant but marginal fluctuations in the exchange rate in the case of the Philippines. The author concludes that external debt encourages the growth of exchange rates in the long run in the case of the Philippines due to its positive relationship. This implies that the Philippine government should aim to focus on more efficient external debt management strategies to enhance the value of the exchange rate of the Philippine Peso relative to other countries. Accordingly, the researcher recommends that the government take the necessary means to reduce the country's external debt to better the economy.

scholarly journals Forecast Foreign Exchange Rate: The Case Study of PKR/USD

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Muhammad Asadullah ◽  
Nawaz Ahmad ◽  
Maria José Palma Lampreia Dos-Santos
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Suitable Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
Future Exchange

The main aim of this paper is to forecast the future values of the exchange rate of the USD. Dollar (USD) and Pakistani Rupee (PR). For this purpose was used the ARIMA model to forecast the future exchange rates, because the time series was stationary at first difference.  Data reported to five years ranging from the first day of April 2014 to 31st March 2019. The results proved that ARIMA (1,1,9) is the most suitable model to forecast the exchange rate. The difference between the forecasted values and actual values are less than 1%; therefore, it was found that the ARIMA is robust and this model will be helpful for the government functionaries, monetary policymakers, economists and other stakeholders to identify and forecast the future trend of the exchange rate and make their policies accordingly.

Blunders could baulk Brazil's reform agenda

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Legal Battle

Significance The controversial move, followed by a still undefined legal battle as groups of victims of the 1964-85 dictatorship and their families sought to ban coup celebrations, added another to an already long list of controversies and political blunders by the far-right government which took office on January 1. These are not only quickly undermining its popularity, but also increasingly threatening its ability to achieve what it has defined as its top priority, passing an ambitious pensions reform. Impacts The left-leaning opposition is as yet failing to capitalise much on the government's serial blunders. The opposition will struggle to unite following clashes within the left and centre-left camp during the 2018 election campaign. The government risks continuing to fall into self-laid traps. Market jitters over the pension reform's prospects risk further falls in stock prices and the exchange rate.

The Value and Distribution of the Benefits of North Sea Oil and Gas, 1970—1985

1977 ◽  
Vol 82 ◽  
pp. 41-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. A. B. Page
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Absolute Size ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The North ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

Oil and gas from the North Sea will make the United Kingdom a net exporter of energy in the 1980s and supply a substantial portion of its needs through the 1990s. In value terms, the benefits are principally to the balance of payments and government revenue. The former is improved slightly relative to the pre-oil price rise position, but significantly compared with either the present balance or that of other industrial countries. The absolute size of these benefits and the share of the government in the total are extremely sensitive to the assumptions made about changes in the exchange rate, including those which result from the improvement in the balance of payments. Many decisions about the distribution of the benefits are already being taken, for example in policies for the energy sector and the exchange rate. It is therefore too late to plan to allocate all the benefits to a single purpose, and it may be undesirable to do so.

Exchange-Rate Exposure of Taiwanese Exporting Firms

2000 ◽  
Vol 03 (02) ◽  
pp. 201-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaoshin Chiao ◽  
Ken Hung
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Exporting Firms ◽  
Exchange Rate Exposure ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange-rate exposure of Taiwanese exporting firms. Particularly, we consider the effects of the timing of the three liberalization events through which the government carried out explicit policies to open gradually its foreign exchange and stock markets. First, we cannot corroborate that most exporting firms are individually exposed to exchange-rate risk. However, we cannot reject that the exporting firms are jointly exposed to exchange-rate risk in all sub-periods. Second, the timing of the three liberalization events greatly affects the exchange-rate exposure of Taiwanese exporting firms. Finally, the determinants of possibly time-varying exchange-rate exposure of exporting firms are exports-to-sales ratio, firm size, and the timing of the three liberalization events.

scholarly journals Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nkire Nneamaka Loretta ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

This study examines the effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomics Performance in Nigeria from 1980-2019. The variables of interest include External Debt, Reserves, Exchange Rate, External Debt Servicing and Government Expenditure were analyzed using co-integration, auto-redistribution lag model (ARDL) and Granger Causality test to understand the long and short run relationship between the variables. Result revealed that there is a unidirectional relationship between foreign reserves and the exchange rate. Exchange rate Granger causes foreign reserves in Nigeria, while foreign reserves do not granger cause exchange rate Granger. This means that as the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates, it always has an impact on Nigeria's foreign reserves. The study recommends among other thing that the government should ensure that the country's foreign reserves are used and managed efficiently. This is because it has been established that foreign reserves have a beneficial impact on macroeconomic performance and stimulate economic growth both of which help to enhance the Nigerian economy.

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