scholarly journals External Debt and its Impact on Exchange Rates in the Philippines

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-103
Author(s):  
Mikayla Mendoza ◽  
Andrew Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is a crucial macroeconomic factor within emerging and transition economies. External debt is a driving force for the growth of an economy. This study then aims to determine the impact of external debt on the exchange rate of the Philippines by examining the impact of external debt accumulation on the Philippines' exchange rates. The researcher applies a correlational time series analysis in order to capture the impact of external debt, debt services on external debt, and foreign reserves on the exchange rate of the Philippines within the period from 1980 to 2019. The relationships between variables based on the developed theoretical framework are analyzed through multiple regression analysis. Empirical results show that external debt and debt services positively impact the exchange rate, while foreign reserves exhibit a negative relationship. The corresponding coefficients indicate that a change in any of the independent variables will cause significant but marginal fluctuations in the exchange rate in the case of the Philippines. The author concludes that external debt encourages the growth of exchange rates in the long run in the case of the Philippines due to its positive relationship. This implies that the Philippine government should aim to focus on more efficient external debt management strategies to enhance the value of the exchange rate of the Philippine Peso relative to other countries. Accordingly, the researcher recommends that the government take the necessary means to reduce the country's external debt to better the economy.

scholarly journals Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nkire Nneamaka Loretta ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

This study examines the effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomics Performance in Nigeria from 1980-2019. The variables of interest include External Debt, Reserves, Exchange Rate, External Debt Servicing and Government Expenditure were analyzed using co-integration, auto-redistribution lag model (ARDL) and Granger Causality test to understand the long and short run relationship between the variables. Result revealed that there is a unidirectional relationship between foreign reserves and the exchange rate. Exchange rate Granger causes foreign reserves in Nigeria, while foreign reserves do not granger cause exchange rate Granger. This means that as the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates, it always has an impact on Nigeria's foreign reserves. The study recommends among other thing that the government should ensure that the country's foreign reserves are used and managed efficiently. This is because it has been established that foreign reserves have a beneficial impact on macroeconomic performance and stimulate economic growth both of which help to enhance the Nigerian economy.

scholarly journals FENOMENA KURS RUPIAH SEBELUM DAN SELAMA COVID-19

NIAGAWAN ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Pebri Hastuti ◽  
La Ane ◽  
Melati Yahya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wilcoxon Test ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic was first announced by the government on March 2, 2020. COVID-19 has caused many impacts on various economic sectors in Indonesia. Not only in Indonesia but the impact of Covid-19 has disrupted world economic chains. In fact, it has the potential to cause an economic crisis in a number of countries if it is not dealt with quickly and appropriately. Especially in the exchange rate of the rupiah against the United States of America (US) which is increasingly weakening. This study aims to determine differences in the rupiah exchange rate before and during the co-19. The author uses library research instruments, documentation studies, internet browsing, where the data taken is secondary data from relevant agencies obtained from Bank Indonesia publications through Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data, data obtained from Jisdor is the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar. This study uses quantitative methods with data analysis tools used are different test methods namely Wilcoxon Test with the help of the computer program SPSS Version 21. Where the data is taken from 7 November 2019 to 28 February 2020 before Covid-19 and during Covid-19 on March 2 until June 30, 2020. The method aims to find out significant differences between the rupiah exchange rates before and during the pandemic. The results of data processing showed that there were significant differences between the rupiah exchange rates before and during the pandemic. So it can be concluded that the spread of Covid-19 in the community will further weaken the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US Dollar.

scholarly journals FENOMENA KURS RUPIAH SEBELUM DAN SELAMA COVID-19

NIAGAWAN ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Pebri Hastuti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wilcoxon Test ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Pandemi COVID-19 pertama kali diumumkan oleh pemerintah pada 2 Maret 2020. COVID-19 telah menyebabkan banyak dampak pada berbagai sektor perekonomian di Indonesia. Tidak hanya di Indonesia bahkan dampak Covid-19 telah mengganggu mata rantai ekonomi dunia. Bahkan, berpotensi menimbulkan krisis ekonomi di sejumlah negara jika tidak ditangani dengan cepat dan tepat. Khususnya pada nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) yang semakin hari semakin melemah.  Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perbedaan kurs rupiah sebelum dan selama terjadi covid-19. Penulis menggunakan instrumen penelitian kepustakaan, studi dokumentasi, browsing internet, dimana data yang diambil merupakan data skunder dari instansi terkait yang di peroleh dari publikasi Bank Indonesia melalui data Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor), data yang di peroleh dari Jisdor tersebut yaitu  kurs rupiah terhadap dolar AS. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif dengan alat analisis data yang digunakan yaitu metode uji beda yaitu Wilcoxon Test dengan bantuan program komputer SPSS Versi 21. Dimana datanya diambil dari tanggal 7 Novermber 2019 sampai 28 Februari 2020 sebelum terjadi covid-19 dan selama terjadinya covid-19 pada tanggal 2 maret sampai 30 Juni 2020. Metode tersebut bertujuan untuk mengetahui perbedaan yang signifikan diantara kurs rupiah sebelum dan selama terjadi pandemi. Hasil pengolahan data didapat menunjukkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan antara kurs rupiah sebelum dan selama pandemi. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa merebaknya penyebaran Covid-19 di masyarakat akan semakin melemahkan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika. Kata Kunci:  Pandemi covid-19, kurs rupiah ,kebijakan moneter AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic was first announced by the government on March 2, 2020. COVID-19 has caused many impacts on various economic sectors in Indonesia. Not only in Indonesia but the impact of Covid-19 has disrupted world economic chains. In fact, it has the potential to cause an economic crisis in a number of countries if it is not dealt with quickly and appropriately. Especially in the exchange rate of the rupiah against the United States of America (US) which is increasingly weakening. This study aims to determine differences in the rupiah exchange rate before and during the co-19. The author uses library research instruments, documentation studies, internet browsing, where the data taken is secondary data from relevant agencies obtained from Bank Indonesia publications through Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data, data obtained from Jisdor is the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar. This study uses quantitative methods with data analysis tools used are different test methods namely Wilcoxon Test with the help of the computer program SPSS Version 21. Where the data is taken from 7 November 2019 to 28 February 2020 before covid-19 and during covid-19 on March 2 until June 30, 2020. The method aims to find out significant differences between the rupiah exchange rates before and during the pandemic. The results of data processing showed that there were significant differences between the rupiah exchange rates before and during the pandemic. So it can be concluded that the spread of Covid-19 in the community will further weaken the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US Dollar. Keyword: Covid pandemic 19, rupiah exchange rate, monetary policy

scholarly journals The Impact of Russia’s Oil-Dominated Energy Economic Changes on the Exchange Rate of Russian Ruble – Chinese Renminbi

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 173
Author(s):  
Maoguo Wu ◽  
Yue Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Close Relation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Pillar Industry ◽  
The Impact

Russia’s economic development has a close relation with China, due to geographical and historical reasons. This paper investigates whether the ruble – renminbi exchange rate changes accordingly when the pillar industry of Russia is drastically changing, and how the exchange rate changes and how it affects Russia’s economic development. In this paper, data of 7 variables spanning 122 months are selected based on related literature and availability of data. Regression analysis and empirical tests are carried out consequently. The results show that the energy price index represented by oil prices is negatively correlated with the exchange rate, and the explanatory power is as high as 41.1%. Following basic arbitrage methods and strategies, this paper verifies the feasibility of using arbitrage by comparing actual exchange rates with forecasted exchange rates. According to empirical results, problems witnessed in the process of ruble internationalization provides policy implications for China. China’s economy is utilized as an example to discuss the shortcomings of Russia’s economy. Related solutions are proposed.

scholarly journals The Stock Market and Exchange Rates in Five South Asian Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firmansyah Firmansyah ◽  
Shanty Oktavilia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The composite price index and return of stocks are the important indicators, both as a measure of the company's portfolio performance, as well as an indicator of macroeconomic health and the aggregate investment. In addition, the stock prices are also influenced by macroeconomic variables and one of the most important is the exchange rates. The objective of this study is to determine the behavior of exchange rate affects the stock returns in Southeast Asia, pre and post of the 2008 world financial crisis. By employing the daily stock market return in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore more than seventeen years from 1 September 1999 to 31 March 2017, this study utilizes Engle-Granger error correction model and cointegration approach to investigate and compare the long and short run of the structural effect of the exchange rates on stock returns. To differentiate the behavior of variables between pre and post occurrence of 2008 world financial crisis, the estimation of the model is divided into two periods. This study finds that the exchange rate growth influence the stock returns in the long and short run, and proves that the cointegration between the two variables exist in all countries. The study has the implication that the exchange rate, which the one of the fundamental measures of a country's macroeconomic health, is an important determinant of influencing stock return, even its effects are responded by the stock return in one day.

scholarly journals A Study on the Pass-Through Rate of the Exchange Rate on the Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Import Price in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Chaofeng Tang ◽  
Kentaka Aruga
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Monetary Reform ◽  
Lag Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Liquid Natural Gas ◽  
The Impact

The Chinese liquid natural gas (LNG) import price has been unstable because the stability of LNG import prices is related to changes in the exchange rates. This paper analyzes the pass-through rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Japanese Yen (JPY) on the Chinese LNG import price. The Time-Varying Parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is adopted to verify the pass-through rate of the exchange rates on the LNG import price using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Since September 2005, the JPY pass-through rate on the Chinese LNG import price has been decreasing while that of the CNY has been increasing. Notably, the pass-through rate of CNY began to exceed that of JPY after 2008. Moreover, since 2005, the lag effect of the CNY on the Chinese LNG import price became longer compared to JPY. If any new currency reform of the CNY is implemented in the future, then the impact of JPY on the Chinese LNG import price could be reduced and the lag effect of the CNY on the Chinese LNG import price could become longer. Therefore, the fluctuation of the CNY is becoming an important factor in understanding the movements of the Chinese LNG import price. This implies the significance of considering the effect of the exchange rate on an energy market when the market is influenced by a monetary reform of the importing country.

scholarly journals Methods of assessing the impact of dollarization on economic development

VUZF Review ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-25
Author(s):  
Оlena Chukurna
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Machine Building ◽  
Building Industry ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The article considers the transformation of the money function as a consequence of the impact of dollarization on the economic development of countries in the global context. The economic substantiation of the process of dollarization of the economy, which is connected with the function of money, is proved. The influence of dollarization on the macro – and macro levels of the economy is substantiated. Approaches to methods of estimating dollarization on the economic development of the country in the context of globalization are proposed. The article defines the degree of dependence of the machine-building industry of Ukraine on the processes of dollarization of the world economy through the use of the effect of transferring the dynamics of changes in exchange rates to the price dynamics in the machine-building industry. Using the ARIMA model, the effect of transferring the exchange rate to prices for mechanical engineering products is proved. The expediency of using the ARIMA forecasting model to predict the further spread of the effect of the change in exchange rates on prices. An approach is proposed to determine the sensitivity of domestic prices for the products of engineering enterprises to changes in the exchange rate through modified elasticity coefficients. It was determined factors affecting the size of the effect of transfer of the exchange rate on domestic prices for the products of machine-building enterprises.

scholarly journals Web Intelligent for Forecasting Exchange Rate Currency using Clever Extraction Agent Combine with Financial Data Mining

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Khammapun Khantanapoka
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Exchange Rate Forecasting ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pattern Index

From the current economic climate results in fluctuations of currency exchange rates in all countries. Since the most countries use USD as the reference exchange rate. The exchange rate will change from day to day so variety of factors which affect the exchange rate forecasting in the exchange rates in advance are critical to evaluate for the impact of the economic system of each country. It is important for investment decisions, exports, and profitability in the money market. It was reported on website (www) in the daily exchange rate changes. We use clever search agent (CSA) gather information from financial website generate to financial data mining. Kohonen Neural Networks is the method to determine similarity of internet documents using pattern index of financial document. And Ontology Structure of Sentence is the method to determine keyword using pattern index of financial content. Both are important components of Financial Data Mining. It is analyzed for exchange rate forecasting about USD/ Pounds. Our experimental forecast exchange rates for currency's USD / Great Britain Pounds by compare three algorithms as fallows GA, Meiosis Genetic Algorithms (MGA). This research propose new algorithm is called Dash Predator Swarm Optimization (DP2SO) which are accurate in prediction than other methods in generation of Genetic algorithm (GA) 35.83-41.52% which it depend on the accuracy of the information in each factor which are important finance dataset. It will present the future trends of exchange rate to the individual website.

scholarly journals The Impact of Australian Consumer Price Index on the Exchange Rate of Australian Dollar - Chinese Renminbi

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Maoguo Wu ◽  
Yue Yu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Australian Dollar ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of Australian consumer price index on Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi exchange rate. As two major economies in Asia Pacific, China and Australia are conducting ever-increasing volume of economic transactions. Massive Chinese investment, particularly in properties, has caused steady increase in Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi. Recent slowdown of Chinese economic growth and Chinese investment in Australia caused both Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi to fall significantly. This paper utilizes data from May 2005 to January 2016 and empirically tests the relation between Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi. In compliance with classical theories of exchange rates, empirical results find that a negative relation exists between Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 Process and the Exchange Rate Relation: An Application on Turkey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eda Dineri ◽  
İbrahim Çütçü
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The recent shocks in supply and demand in the world are not due to unexpected economic reasons; in fact, they are related to Covid-19 that causes rapidly spreading global health problems and life threats around the world. While the global powers are dealing with the social problems created by Covid-19 pandemic, they should not neglect the economic changes created by this pandemic. The most important of these economic changes in developing countries with high fragility is exchange rates, because exchange rates can directly affect many macroeconomic variables, from inflation to foreign trade, from the balance of payments to interests. In countries with high fragility due to the effect of pandemic, economic uncertainty causes fluctuations in the exchange rate. Is the reason for the change in the exchange rate, the number of cases or economic risks that may occur due to possible health problems?In this study, the impact of the number of new cases and the number of new deaths for the process of Covid-19 pandemic on the exchange rate in Turkey is examined. The daily data consider the number of new cases, the number of new deaths and exchange rate for the period of 16.03.2020–06.05.2020. The first step of the analysis, the stationary of the series is tested by Lee and Strazicich (2003) unıt root test which allowed structural break. Hatemi-J (2008) Cointegration Test that allow two structural breaks and Hacker-Hatemi-J Bootstrap causality test are used in the analysis. In the results of the Hatemi- J (2008) cointegration test, there is a medium and long-term relationship, with under structural breaks between the number of new cases and the number of new deaths and the exchange rate. According to the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that the number of new cases and the number of new deaths have a significant effect on the exchange rate, causing uncertainty in the economy.JEL Classification: I19, F31, C22

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