scholarly journals Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nkire Nneamaka Loretta ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government

This study examines the effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Foreign Reserves on Macroeconomics Performance in Nigeria from 1980-2019. The variables of interest include External Debt, Reserves, Exchange Rate, External Debt Servicing and Government Expenditure were analyzed using co-integration, auto-redistribution lag model (ARDL) and Granger Causality test to understand the long and short run relationship between the variables. Result revealed that there is a unidirectional relationship between foreign reserves and the exchange rate. Exchange rate Granger causes foreign reserves in Nigeria, while foreign reserves do not granger cause exchange rate Granger. This means that as the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates, it always has an impact on Nigeria's foreign reserves. The study recommends among other thing that the government should ensure that the country's foreign reserves are used and managed efficiently. This is because it has been established that foreign reserves have a beneficial impact on macroeconomic performance and stimulate economic growth both of which help to enhance the Nigerian economy.

scholarly journals External Debt and its Impact on Exchange Rates in the Philippines

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-103
Author(s):  
Mikayla Mendoza ◽  
Andrew Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is a crucial macroeconomic factor within emerging and transition economies. External debt is a driving force for the growth of an economy. This study then aims to determine the impact of external debt on the exchange rate of the Philippines by examining the impact of external debt accumulation on the Philippines' exchange rates. The researcher applies a correlational time series analysis in order to capture the impact of external debt, debt services on external debt, and foreign reserves on the exchange rate of the Philippines within the period from 1980 to 2019. The relationships between variables based on the developed theoretical framework are analyzed through multiple regression analysis. Empirical results show that external debt and debt services positively impact the exchange rate, while foreign reserves exhibit a negative relationship. The corresponding coefficients indicate that a change in any of the independent variables will cause significant but marginal fluctuations in the exchange rate in the case of the Philippines. The author concludes that external debt encourages the growth of exchange rates in the long run in the case of the Philippines due to its positive relationship. This implies that the Philippine government should aim to focus on more efficient external debt management strategies to enhance the value of the exchange rate of the Philippine Peso relative to other countries. Accordingly, the researcher recommends that the government take the necessary means to reduce the country's external debt to better the economy.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Tourism Sector Output in Nigeria

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-55
Author(s):  
Ogbeba Ehigocho Peace ◽  
Oji-Okoro Izuchukwu ◽  
Abba Abubakar Shehu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Government

It has been a major source of contention among economics scholars, that tourism is a major driver of socio-economic development in the world and serves as a major source of revenue across countries. Hence, this paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on tourism sector output in Nigeria for the period of 1995 to 2015, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), granger causality test and co-integration approach to ascertain this relationship. Results revealed that exchange rate fluctuation indeed has a significantly negative effect on tourism sector output in Nigeria, and that an increased fluctuation reduces the contribution of the tourism sector to GDP. The granger Causality test result showed that there is a unidirectional causality and long run relationship between contribution of tourism sector to GDP and the contribution of the Tourism sector to employment, real effective exchange rate, and the international number of tourist arrival. Among various recommendations in the study is for the government of Nigeria to review existing economic policies that affect the exchange rate fluctuation, as these some of this policies may be responsible for the consistent increase in exchange rate fluctuation, as these could substantially reduce the number of tourist arrival and tourism sector output.

FORECASTING THE RUBLE EXCHANGE RATE BASED ON THE MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 73-81
Author(s):  
L. A. CHALDAEVA ◽  
◽  
A. A. DANILIN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Major Factors

This article covers the forecasts of the USD/RUB exchange rate based on the econometric model. The major factors effect on the national currency exchange rate are interest rate, inflation, and price of oil. The reasons of the exchange rate fluctuation have been presented in this paper. A possible scenario of future USD/RUB fluctuations has been considered in this article.

Exchange-rate fluctuation and pricing behavior in China’s wood-based panel exporters: evidence from panel data

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (10) ◽  
pp. 1392-1404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Zhonghua Yin ◽  
Jianbang Gan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
International Market ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Pricing To Market ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Pricing Behavior ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

As the largest wood-based panel producing and exporting country, China has experienced sharp reductions in the growth rate of its wood-based panel exports because of pressure caused by exchange-rate fluctuation. These fluctuations were exacerbated by the global financial crisis. China’s wood-based panel exporters need to adjust their pricing strategy to cope with the changes of international market conditions. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the relationship between exchange-rate fluctuation and the pricing behavior of China’s wood-based panel exporters. To evaluate the impact of the exchange rate on China’s wood-based panel export prices across multiple destinations, a pricing-to-market model incorporating panel data was used. The empirical results suggest that although complete exchange-rate pass-through exists widely in China’s wood-based exports, China’s fiberboard and plywood exporters tended to adopt different pricing strategies in the international wood-based panel market during the post-crisis era. China’s fiberboard exporters often used the pricing-to-market model to determine prices in the main export destination countries, while China’s plywood exporters tended to amplify the exchange-rate effects. This indicates that China’s plywood exporters have stronger international market power than China’s fiberboard exporters, partly because China’s plywood exporters have more advantages in terms of skilled labor.

Employment Adjustments of Regular and Non-Regular Workers to Exogenous Shocks: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Fluctuation

ILR Review ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 001979391988796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Izumi Yokoyama ◽  
Kazuhito Higa ◽  
Daiji Kawaguchi
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Japanese Yen ◽  
Specific Human Capital

The authors investigate the adjustments in employment of regular and non-regular workers, exploiting the exchange-rate fluctuation and heterogeneous dependence on international trade across firms as a source of exogenous variation. An analysis of panel data of Japanese manufacturers reveals that the appreciation of the Japanese yen spontaneously decreased the sales of exporters and the employment of non-regular workers, but it did not reduce the employment of regular workers. This finding provides support for the claim that firms are likely to adjust the employment of non-regular workers to absorb exogenous shocks and to insulate regular workers from the shocks in an uncertain business environment. In exploring the mechanism driving these results, the authors also find that exporters use the employment of non-regular workers and wages of regular workers as adjustment margins for the exchange-rate fluctuation to hoard regular workers, who presumably hold higher levels of firm-specific human capital.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate and International Trade: Case From Indonesian Manufacturing Sector

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-266
Author(s):  
Anung Yoga Anindhita
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to Exchange rate fluctuation in Floating Exchange Rate Regime is considered to have impacts on the international trade through its adjustment to the price and its volatility to the trade risk. This paper is aimed at estimating those impacts on the international trade of manufacturing sector in Indonesia for period 2007 to 2014. To conduct estimation, it uses multiple regression analysis on two models: First, the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials; Second, the export of manufacturing sector. The results show that the exchange rate impacts both work significantly on the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials. The finding implies that, through the import of raw-and-auxiliary materials, manufacturing sector is very susceptible to the shock caused by exchange rate changes. Meanwhile, the export of manufacturing sector is not able to take advantage of the depreciation of the exchange rate due to the lack of competitiveness.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5210

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS ON BALI TOURISM SECTOR

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ignatius Adhi Nugroho ◽  
Stephanie Gunawan ◽  
Agni Alam Awirya ◽  
Putriana Nurman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Event Studies ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate

<p>Trade, hotel, and restaurant sector which represents tourism sector is the biggest contributor for Bali economy sector. It accounts for more than 30% of Bali income. Most of the income comes from foreign tourists’ expenditure which accounts for more than half of the local tourists’ with the foreign tourists’ arrival of 36% more of the locals’. The fact therefore underlines the importance of foreign tourist growth observation due to its significance for Bali economy. This research aims at estimating the change of tourists’ arrival because of the fluctuation of rupiah (depreciation and appreciation) which allegedly thought as one of the underlying factors affecting the number of tourists’ arrival. This research also aims at analyzing the sensitivity of foreign tourists’ to the change of traveling cost and at analyzing the tourists’ destination shift should there be any change of traveling cost and also at analyzing the characteristics of the foreign tourists affected by the exchange rate fluctuations. Event studies shows that exchange rate fluctuation does not affect foreign tourists’ decision on coming to Bali. This is due to the fact that foreign tourists’ arrival escalates regardless the exchange rate fluctuation (depreciation and appreciation). Meanwhile, descriptive analysis shows that only minority of foreign tourists are affected by exchange rate fluctuations with underlying characteristic of the country of origin. Moreover, despite the rise of traveling cost to Bali, more than 50% respondents choose to travel to Bali and although there is a change of destination, more than 30% respondents choose other Asian countries as a replacement. It is also revealed that the older the tourists, the less the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on their decision to visit Bali.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document