Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments

Climate change has significant negative impact on agriculture in tropical region. Inrecent years, research on climate change has focused mainly on food crops while horticultural crops have received little attention. This paper is an overview of Indonesian future climate projection for precipitation, temperature and extreme climate, climate change impact and adaptation strategies on vegetable and fruit crops and future challenge for horticultural development under climate change. The climate change will decrease crop productivity and quality, increase the incidence of new pest and disease, and the outbreaks on vegetable and fruit crops. Further climate change will disrupt water availability, alter climate-crop suitability and cause crop failure due to extreme climate. Several adaptation measures have been developed in farming system, among other adjustment of planting time, using resistant varieties to environmental strees, adopting irrigation technology for efficient water use, using green house and increasing farmers and extention service capacity through climate field school. For future research it is necessary to assess climate projections with several scenarios and Global Circular Models (GCMs) and their impact on future vegetable and fruits crops by developing crop modeling which should be given a priority of in agriculture. This information crucially needed for adaptation strategy and a long term agricultural planning in the future.Keywords: Vegetable, fruit, climate change, global circular model, adaptation AbstrakPerubahan iklim berdampak negatif terhadap pertanian di daerah tropis. Selama ini penelitian dampak perubahan iklim terhadap pertanian lebih banyak dilakukan pada tanaman pangan, sementara pada tanaman hortikultura, khususnya sayuran dan buah-buahan masih terbatas. Tulisan ini merupakan tinjauan tentang proyeksi dampak perubahan iklim di Indonesia yang meliputi curah hujan, suhu udara, dan iklim ekstrim terhadap produksi tanaman buah dan sayuran, di samping berbagai upaya adaptasi yang telah dilakukan dan tantangan pembangunan hortikultura ke depan. Perubahan iklim pada tanaman sayuran dan buah-buahan terbukti menurunkan kuantitas dan kualitas produksi, munculnya hama penyakit baru, meningkatnya serangan hama dan penyakit, gagal panen, penurunan kapasitas air irigasi, perubahan kesesuian lahan dan tanaman. Beberapa langkah adaptasi yang sudah dilakukan yaitu penyesuaian sistem usaha tani yang meliputi penggunaan varietas toleran cekaman lingkungan, penyesuian waktu tanam, penggunaan teknik irigasi hemat air, pengembangan teknologi pencarian sumber daya air baru, penggunaan rumah kasa/rumah plastik, peningkatan kemampuan petani dan penyuluh dalam memahami perubahan iklim melalui sekolah lapang. Ke depan masih perlu dilakukan kajian proyeksi iklim dengan berbagai skenario dan berbagai Global circular model (GCM) serta kajian dampak perubahan iklim terhadap tanaman sayur dan buah unggulan melalui pengembangan pemodelan sistem usaha tani. Informasi proyeksi dampak perubahan iklim diperlukan sebagai upaya adaptasi dan perencanaan pembangunan pertanian yang dikaitkan dengan perubahan iklim.Kata kunci: Buah-buahan, sayuran, perubahan iklim, global circular model, adaptasi

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The influence of model structure on groundwater recharge rates in climate-change impact studies

Hydrogeology Journal ◽

10.1007/s10040-016-1367-1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 24 (5) ◽

pp. 1171-1184 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

Christian Moeck ◽

Philip Brunner ◽

Daniel Hunkeler

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Model Structure ◽

Impact Studies ◽

Change Impact ◽

Recharge Rates

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Future changes in hydrological extremes of a Mediterranean catchment: what can we say in an uncertainty context?

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13806 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Lila Collet ◽

Thibault Lemaitre-Basset ◽

Guillaume Thirel ◽

Juraj Parajka ◽

Guillaume Evin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Uncertainty Analysis ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Total Uncertainty ◽

River Catchment ◽

Low Flows ◽

Hydrological Extremes ◽

Hydrological Hazards ◽

Change Impact

The Mediterranean region is a hot spot for climate change impact on the water cycle where water resources are anticipated to decrease and hydrological extremes to intensify while population and water use conflicts growth would keep rising. However, the analysis of the uncertainty related to hydrological projections is generally poorly quantified and difficult to translate to decision-makers. In this study, an in-depth analysis of projections and uncertainties for extreme high- and low-flows was performed. Climatic projections derived from a recent downscaling method over France (Adamont, Verfaillie et al., 2017) were used, and hydrological projections were produced on the H&#233;rault River catchment based on two different Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), five global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM) couples, three hydrological models (HMs), and twenty-nine calibration schemes (Lemaitre-Basset et al., sub). This ensemble was analysed with the QUALYPSO approach (Evin et al., 2019) that allows transient uncertainty analysis of ensembles derived from incomplete GCM/RCM matrix. The quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) used in QUALYPSO evaluates the contribution of each impact modelling step to the total uncertainty. For high-flows, GCMs and RCPs contribute the most to the total uncertainty at the short and long lead-time, respectively. For low-flows, HMs structure and calibration period are the most important sources of uncertainty across 2006-2100. While high-flow projections show a significant mean increase of 30% by 2085 compared to the historical period (confidence intervals: [-1%; +64%]), low-flows would slightly decrease (-7%) by 2085, but with a higher uncertainty (confidence interval: [-24%; +13%]). The time horizons for which a change (e.g. -50, -20, -10, &#8230;, +10, +20, +50%) in high- and low-flows intensity becomes robust (i.e. when more than 66% of the ensemble is above/below a given threshold) were also assessed. This provides strong messages to water managers of the H&#233;rault River catchment who can then anticipate the time needed to prepare and adapt to climate change impacts for extreme hydrological hazards.References:Evin, G., Hingray, B., Blanchet, J., Eckert, N., Morin, S., & Verfaillie, D. (2019). Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 32, 18. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0606.1Lemaitre-Basset, T., Collet, L., Thirel, G., Parajka, J., Evin, G., Hingray, B. (submitted) Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis on hydrological extremes in a Mediterranean catchment. Hydrological Sciences JournalVerfaillie, D., D&#233;qu&#233;, M., Morin, S., & Lafaysse, M. (2017). The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(11), 4257&#8211;4283. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017

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The impact of climate change on urban transport resilience in a changing world

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133314538741 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 38 (4) ◽

pp. 448-463 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

David Jaroszweski ◽

Elizabeth Hooper ◽

Lee Chapman

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Smart Cities ◽

Urban Transport ◽

Transport Systems ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact

The assessment of the potential impact of climate change on transport is an area of research very much in its infancy, and one that requires input from a multitude of disciplines including geography, engineering and technology, meteorology, climatology and futures studies. This paper investigates the current state of the art for assessments on urban surface transport, where rising populations and increasing dependence on efficient and reliable mobility have increased the importance placed on resilience to weather. The standard structure of climate change impact assessment (CIA) requires understanding in three important areas: how weather currently affects infrastructure and operations; how climate change may alter the frequency and magnitude of these impacts; and how concurrent technological and socio-economic development may shape the transport network of the future, either ameliorating or exacerbating the effects of climate change. The extent to which the requisite knowledge exists for a successful CIA is observed to decrease from the former to the latter. This paper traces a number of developments in the extrapolation of physical and behavioural relationships on to future climates, including a broad move away from previous deterministic methods and towards probabilistic projections which make use of a much broader range of climate change model output, giving a better representation of the uncertainty involved. Studies increasingly demand spatially and temporally downscaled climate projections that can represent realistic sub-daily fluctuations in weather that transport systems are sensitive to. It is recommended that future climate change impact assessments should focus on several key areas, including better representation of sub-daily extremes in climate tools, and recreation of realistic spatially coherent weather. Greater use of the increasing amounts of data created and captured by ‘intelligent infrastructure’ and ‘smart cities’ is also needed to develop behavioural and physical models of the response of transport to weather and to develop a better understanding of how stakeholders respond to probabilistic climate change impact projections.

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Climate change impact on West African rivers under an ensemble of CORDEX climate projections

Climate Services ◽

10.1016/j.cliser.2018.05.003 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 ◽

pp. 36-48 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Philipp Stanzel ◽

Harald Kling ◽

Hannes Bauer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

West African ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Change Impact

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Applications of Aqua crop Model for Improved Field Management Strategies and Climate Change Impact Assessment: A Review

Modern Concepts & Developments in Agronomy ◽

10.31031/mcda.2018.03.000558 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Abadi Berhane

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Impact Assessment ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Crop Model ◽

Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽

Field Management ◽

Change Impact

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CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – Bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

10.5194/essd-2017-51 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Abdelkader Mezghani ◽

Andreas Dobler ◽

Jan Erik Haugen ◽

Rasmus Eduard Benestad ◽

Kajsa Maria Parding ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Systematic Bias ◽

Model Simulations ◽

Change Impact ◽

Annual Means ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract. The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections – Bias Corrected Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to 5 × 5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) assuming two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase constantly by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5, which is accelerating assuming the RCP8.5 scenario and can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 % to 10 % and by 8 % to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent exhibiting spatial variations which depends on the selected season, location, future horizon and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between −7 % and +40 %, expected to occur in summer assuming the RCP4.5 scenarios and in winter assuming the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, at the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at http://dx.doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d.

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