Modified Rapture All Round: The First Elections to the Scottish Parliament

1999 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-322 ◽  
Author(s):  
William L. Miller

AS ELECTION DAY APPROACHED IT SEEMED CERTAIN THAT LABOUR would come out on top and the Scottish National Party (SNP) would come second. Thanks to the new German-style electoral system it also seemed certain that Labour could not win an overall majority in the new Scottish Parliament and that the Conservatives would get some parliamentary representation however low their vote. But each of the parties had hopes and ambitions as well as expectations. Labour hoped to get over 60 seats in the new parliament of 129, enough at least to have the option of forming a minority government. The SNP hoped to get well over 40 seats, enough to let it assume the undisputed role of the opposition, and to mark a further step along the road to independence. The Liberal Democrats hoped to be more than a small but useful coalition partner in the new parliament. Out in the country they hoped the new electoral system would end the traditional handicap of a Liberal Democrat vote being dismissed as a ‘wasted vote’ and so let their votes rise to equal their underlying level of popular support. ‘Other’ parties and candidates hoped that the new electoral system and the new inclusive politics would somehow include them.

Subject Fresh election scenarios. Significance Opinion polls suggest that no single party will win an overall majority in the House of Commons on May 7. They also imply that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will do extremely well, substantially increasing its representation from its current six seats to around 25-45 seats. Furthermore, polls also indicate that the third party in terms of current parliamentary representation -- the Liberal Democrats, junior partners in the governing coalition -- may struggle to retain that status and could fall as low as 15-25 seats. If that occurred, the formation of a new coalition arrangement led either by the Conservatives or Labour would be much more complicated than in May 2010, when the election ended without an overall majority. This has led to speculation that another general election could follow relatively swiftly after May -- even within this calendar year. Impacts The May 2015 election may well not produce a result that can last for a five-year term. The Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 makes the swift dissolution of parliament for a fresh election more challenging. Still, there is a scenario in which another contest could occur in 2015. However, a fresh election in 2016-17 is more likely than one held a few months later.


Subject Scottish independence drive. Significance Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon launched a fresh independence drive on April 28. Speaking at the spring conference of her Scottish National Party (SNP) in Edinburgh, she said it was “Scotland’s intent to stay part of the European family of nations”. The conference saw delegates back plans for an independent Scottish currency, the declaration of a climate emergency and the establishment of a non-party Citizens’ Assembly to generate debate about Scotland’s future. Impacts The SNP’s anti-Brexit stance and efforts to help EU citizens will bolster migrant communities’ support for both the party and independence. A major non-party, grassroots march in Glasgow on May 4 kicked off a new programme of demonstrations to raise independence support. The 20-year anniversary of the opening of the Scottish Parliament in July will drive further debate and reflection on Scotland’s future. Unionist parties will focus increasingly on the single issue of rejecting independence to galvanise their support.


Author(s):  
Igor L. Kurs

For the first time in the national historiography, various aspects of the internal political struggle in Scotland regarding its political status in 2007–2011 are considered. The key actors in this struggle are identified, the forms and tools used by various political forces to realise their goals are highlighted, and the issue of the Scottish National Party as a government party is explored. The activity of two organisations – «National Conversation» and the Calman Commission, created at the initiative of two opposing camps of Scottish politics, is analysed. It is noted that as a result of their work, the discussion about the political future of the region was brought to a qualitatively new level, and all the main political forces in the region recognised the need to expand the powers of the Scottish Parliament.


Subject The Scottish Referendums Bill. Significance The persistent risk of no-deal Brexit is strengthening the case for Scottish independence; now a majority of Scots want independence within two years, according to recent polls. If the Scottish Parliament passes the Referendums Bill, it could grant Scottish ministers the power to call a new independence referendum. Impacts Labour’s lack of clarity on a Scottish independence referendum could boost support for other pro-unionist parties in Scotland. A UK election before Brexit, with the threat of no deal remaining, will play into the hands of the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP). The push towards independence will likely be strongly influenced by the impact of Brexit, which is currently unpredictable.


1994 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 616-629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Brand ◽  
James Mitchell ◽  
Paula Surridge

Using data from the 1992 Scottish and British Election Surveys, the authors examine various models which might explain the changes in the level and type of Scottish National Party voting. In the analysis they are also concerned with voters for other parties who support the central SNP policy: independence, for Scotland. The protest, relative deprivation, identity, and new social movement models are stated and explored. The authors conclude that a major problem for the SNP is that the basic Scottish identity, to which the Nationalists want to appeal, is felt almost as strongly by Labour voters as by those who choose the SNP. The SNP has not been able to establish a reputation as a credible party of government which could take over the role of the spokesperson for the national community. At the same time, it is not likely to disappear as the major challenger in Scottish politics.


Contention ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
David McKeever

This article is a study of the consequences of brokerage for movements, and particularly for the role of political parties within social movements. My findings indicate that brokerage creates opportunities for minor groups to play a crucial role in mobilization, something that comes at a cost to a movement’s structure. I make my case with a study of brokerage in action, based on activist interviews, events data, and network data collected from the Scottish independence movement. Results demonstrate that the likelihood of the governing Scottish National Party participating in movement events only increases with the number of participating movement organizations. As the movement organizations transitioned from a referendum campaign to an autonomous movement, under-resourced peripheral groups took the lead in brokering the Nationalist movement.


2018 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 197-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm Petrie

ABSTRACTThis paper presents an alternative interpretation of Scottish politics between 1945 and 1970, a period that witnessed the decline of a once-powerful Unionist tradition, the revival of Liberalism and the rise of the Scottish National party (SNP). While existing accounts have focused principally upon social and economic factors, this study foregrounds the role of ideology and rhetoric. During the 1940s and early 1950s, Scottish Unionists were, like their Conservative colleagues elsewhere in Britain, able to construct a popular, but essentially negative, anti-socialist coalition that prioritised the defence of individual liberty. This electoral alliance, defined by opposition to Labour's programme of nationalisation and expressed via an individualist idiom, was able to attract broad support; it was, however, always provisional, and proved increasingly difficult to sustain after the Conservative party returned to office in 1951. It was, this paper suggests, the fragmenting of this anti-socialist coalition in the late 1950s and early 1960s that created the opportunity for both the Liberals and the SNP to present alternative renderings of this individualist appeal, and to emerge as credible political alternatives. Crucially, by the 1960s, individual liberty was beginning to be understood in constitutional rather than economic terms.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieran Wright

Abstract This article presents an original account of the tactical options available to political parties in multi-level settings. It applies that framework to the case of post-devolution Scotland via an analysis of First Minister’s Questions sessions in the Scottish Parliament. It shows how Scottish Labour adopted a less left-leaning justification for its stance on the constitutional issue in the years after the party lost power at Holyrood to the Scottish National Party. Consequently, the party failed to present itself as a clearly left of centre alternative to the SNP and downplayed the progressive case for Scotland remaining in the UK.


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