Arming for conflict, arming for peace? How small arms imports affect intrastate conflict risk

Although a prevalent technology of conflict, the impact of small arms imports on the risk of intrastate conflict outbreak has not been examined so far. This article argues that small arms not only enhance general military capabilities, but also contribute to state capacities necessary for conflict prevention. These two mechanisms are incorporated in a formal model of power shifts. The derived hypotheses are tested on 146 countries for the period 1993–2014. Using split-population and penalized fixed-effects logit models as innovative estimation methods for rare-events data, small arms imports are found to have no or even a risk-reducing impact.

Physiological response of weaned piglets to two transport durations observed in a Canadian commercial setting

Observational studies describing the impact of transport duration on weaned piglet welfare are limited. Current Canadian transport regulations are heavily informed by studies involving market hogs. Due to physiological differences between weaned piglets and market hogs, additional data on their response to transport are needed for age-specific evidence-based recommendations. A cohort study was conducted to describe and compare mortality, injury, weight change, hematological or biochemical changes in hydration, muscle injury and stress response observed in weaned piglets undergoing short duration (SD, <3h), or long duration (LD, >30 h) commercial summertime transport events. Data collection on 440 of 11,434 transported piglets occurred the morning of the day before transport (T0), at arrival (T1) and approximately three to four days (78-93h) after arrival at the nursery barn (T2). Low mortality occurred over all transport events (0.06%) with no association observed between transport duration and odds of death during transport (P=0.62). The incidence of lameness between T0 and T1 was low (1.84% of the 435 focal piglets scored) with all lameness cases identified as mild in severity. Lesions on ears and skin were more prevalent than other injury types after transport (T1) and may have been related to mixing aggression associated with weaning rather than transport alone. LD piglets weighed 0.39 kg less than SD piglets at T1 (P<0.01), but no difference in group weight was observed at T2 (P=0.17). Hematological and biochemical differences were present between groups at T1. LD piglets had increased hematocrit levels compared to SD piglets (P=0.01) suggesting increased body water losses. SD piglets showed greater levels of muscle injury compared to LD piglets including elevated aspartate aminotransferase (P<0.01) and creatine kinase (P<0.01). However, these parameters were within normal reference ranges for piglets of this age group. Indicators of physiological stress response including cortisol and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratios were elevated in SD piglets compared to LD piglets (P=0.02 and P<0.01, respectively). The results of this study demonstrate that both short and long transport durations can result in detectable physiological changes in weaned piglets. The overall impact of these durations on piglet welfare should be further explored by analyzing behavioural time budgets during and after transport.

Outlier Detection for Pandemic-Related Data Using Compositional Functional Data Analysis

With accurate data, governments can make the most informed decisions to keep people safer through pandemics such as the COVID-19 coronavirus. In such events, data reliability is crucial and therefore outlier detection is an important and even unavoidable issue. Outliers are often considered as the most interesting observations, because the fact that they differ from the data majority may lead to relevant findings in the subject area. Outlier detection has also been addressed in the context of multivariate functional data, thus smooth functions of several characteristics, often derived from measurements at different time points (Hubert et al. in Stat Methods Appl 24(2):177–202, 2015b). Here the underlying data are regarded as compositions, with the compositional parts forming the multivariate information, and thus only relative information in terms of log-ratios between these parts is considered as relevant for the analysis. The multivariate functional data thus have to be derived as smooth functions by utilising this relative information. Subsequently, already established multivariate functional outlier detection procedures can be used, but for interpretation purposes, the functional data need to be presented in an appropriate space. The methodology is illustrated with publicly available data around the COVID-19 pandemic to find countries displaying outlying trends.

Крымский период жизни Басана Городовикова

Introduction. The article deals with the Crimean period (August 1941 – June 1942) in the life of Basan Badminovich Gorodovikov, Hero of the Soviet Union and a major military and political figure of Kalmykia. The present article aims at describing and analyzing this less-known period of his biography, which was significant and full of dramatic events. Data and research methods. For the purposes of this research, the author has used a wide range of archival materials, as well as memoirs of participants of the partisan movement in the Crimea (including unpublished papers). Results. The author describes the first battles in the north of the Crimea in which Gorodovikov’s regiment was engaged; then, its retreat into the mountains and transition to partisans, the creation of a partisan detachment and the actions behind enemy lines. The activities of Gorodovikov’s detachment are shown against the general background of the partisan movement in the Crimea; special attention given to the discussion of warfare under the specific conditions on the peninsula. The article focuses on the role of the military personnel, especially at the first stage of the partisan movement, revealing, among other things, the problems in the relationship between the command staff of the 48th cavalry division and the partisan leaders in the Crimea. For the first time, the article sheds light on the history of awarding Gorodovikov with the Order of the Red Banner, which was the first award of the Crimean partisans. The dramatic story of his evacuation from the partisan forest to the “Bol´shaia zemlia” is also documented in detail; with previously unknown documents and materials introduced in this paper. The undertaken research allows to conclude that the Crimean period in the life of Gorodovikov was one of the most dramatic in his biography. During a difficult period for the Crimea, he became the commander of one of the most successful partisan detachments, which after he left was officially named after him, its first commander. Notably, Gorodovikov was among the first Crimean partisans to be awarded a military order and to get a promotion in rank and in office.

EP.TH.25Common General Surgical Never Events: An In-depth Analysis of Never Events data held by NHS England

Background There is little available data on common general surgical NE. Lack of this information may have affected our attempts to reduce the incidence of these potentially serious clinical incidents. The purpose of this study was to identify common general surgical NE from the data held by the National Health Service (NHS) England. Methods We analyzed NHS England NE data from April 2012 to February 2020 to identify common general surgical NE. Results There was a total of 797 general surgical NE identified under three main categories of Wrong-Site Surgery (n = 427;53.58%), Retained Items Post-Procedure (n = 355;44.54%) and Wrong Implant/Prosthesis and (n = 15;1.88%). We identified a total of 56 common general surgical themes - 25 each in Wrong-Site Surgery and Retained Foreign Body category and 6 in wrong implants. Wrong skin condition surgery was the commonest wrong-site surgery (n = 117;27.4%). There were 18 wrong side chest drains (4.2%) and 18 (4.2%) wrong side angioplasty/angiogram. There were 7 (1.6%) instances of confusion in pilonidal/perianal/perineal surgeries and 6 (1.4%) instances of biopsy of cervix rather than colon or rectum. Retained surgical swabs were the most common retained items (n = 165;46.5%). There were 28 (7.9%) laparoscopic retrieval bags with or without the specimen, 26 (7.3%) chest drain guidewires, 26 (7.3%) surgical needles; and 9 (2.5%) surgical drains. Wrong stents were the most common (n = 9;60%) wrong implant followed by wrong breast implants (n = 2;13.3%). Conclusion This study found 56 common general surgical Never Events. Increased awareness of these common themes of NE may ultimately help reduce their incidence.

SP7.1.5 Common General Surgical Never Events: Analysis of NHS England Never Events Data

Background There is little available data on common general surgical Never Events (NE). Lack of this information may have affected our attempts to reduce the incidence of these potentially serious clinical incidents. The purpose of this study was to identify common general surgical NE from the data held by the NHS England. Methods We analysed NHS England NE data from April 2012 to February 2020 to identify common general surgical NE. Results There was a total of 797 general surgical NE identified under three main categories of Wrong-Site Surgery (n = 427;53.58%), Retained Items Post-Procedure (n = 355; 44.54%), and Wrong Implant/ Prosthesis and (n = 15; 1.88%). We identified a total of 56 common general surgical themes - 25 each in the Wrong-Site Surgery and Retained Foreign Body category and 6 in wrong implants. Wrong skin condition surgery was the commonest wrong-site surgery (n = 117; 27.4%). There were 18 wrong side chest drains (4.2%) and 18 (4.2%) wrong side angioplasty/angiogram. There were 7 (1.6%) instances of confusion in pilonidal/perianal/perineal surgeries and 6 (1.4%) instances of biopsy of cervix rather than colon or rectum. Retained surgical swabs were the most common retained items (n = 165;46.5%). There were 28 (7.9%) laparoscopic retrieval bags with or without the specimen, 26 (7.3%) chest drain guidewires, 26 (7.3%) surgical needles; and 9 (2.5%) surgical drains. Wrong stents were most common (n = 9;60%) wrong implant followed by wrong breast implants (n = 2;13.3%). Conclusion This study found 56 common general surgical NE. Increased awareness of these common themes of NE may help reduce their incidence.

Priapism in a Healthy Male: A Rare Side Effect of Herbal Medicines Containing Withania somnifera

Priapism is an uncommon urological emergency. Drugs are known causes of priapism. Self-medication and use of over-the-counter drugs are very common in India. Withania somnifera is common over the counter herb used in India for anxiety, depression, boosting immunity, infertility, etc. Despite the unprohibited and over-the-counter use of drug, the efficacy and adverse events data are not available. We report a patient of anxiety and depression self-medicating with W. somnifera and multivitamins presenting with ischemic priapism.