Epidemiological waves - types, drivers and modulators in the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction: A discussion of 'waves' of the COVID-19 epidemic in different countries is a part of the national conversation for many, but there is no hard and fast means of delineating these waves in the available data and their connection to waves in the sense of mathematical epidemiology is only tenuous. Methods: We present an algorithm which processes a general time series to identify substantial, significant and sustained periods of increase in the value of the time series, which could reasonably be described as 'observed waves'. This provides an objective means of describing observed waves in time series. Results: The output of the algorithm as applied to epidemiological time series related to COVID-19 corresponds to visual intuition and expert opinion. Inspecting the results of individual countries shows how consecutive observed waves can differ greatly with respect to the case fatality ratio. Furthermore, in large countries, a more detailed analysis shows that consecutive observed waves have different geographical ranges. We also show how waves can be modulated by government interventions and find that early implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions correlates with a reduced number of observed waves and reduced mortality burden in those waves. Conclusion: It is possible to identify observed waves of disease by algorithmic methods and the results can be fruitfully used to analyse the progression of the epidemic.

Humility and Informing the Public Conversation

This chapter highlights the importance of humility in preventing the contagion next time. Shaping a healthier world means informing a public conversation which prioritizes what matters most for health. It means elevating the subjects discussed in this book to the center of the national conversation about health, a conversation currently focused on the curative power of medicine at the expense of the forces that shape health. In this task, humility is key. Humility helps us to listen and engage with respect, compassion, and an openness to alternative perspectives. Throughout COVID-19, we saw how hubris and closeminded partisanship undermined, again and again, the possibility of such a conversation, hindering efforts to support health. Going forward, we need an approach to health which embraces humility and constructive engagement with the public conversation, towards the aim of building a healthier world.

Enduring Victoria: Iconoclasm and Restoration at the British Embassy in Tehran

The Government Art Collection (GAC) shares British art, culture and creativity through displays in UK Government buildings worldwide. It is the most widely distributed collection of British art, displayed in 129 countries where it is seen by thousands of visitors each year, and makes an important contribution to UK cultural diplomacy. New acquisitions continually develop the diversity of representation within the collection to better reflect contemporary British society.The Collection holds a number of portraits of Queen Victoria that are displayed in UK diplomatic buildings in Moscow, Paris, Tehran, Tokyo, Tunis, Washington and New Delhi, amongst others.  Over two centuries, these portraits have silently witnessed Britain’s changing position in the world while recalling her former influence. The first part of this article will focus on George Hayter’s portrait of Queen Victoria, painted 1862-63, and displayed in the British Ambassador's residence in Tehran, Iran. This is one of many autograph copies of the artist’s original 1838-40 coronation portrait, currently on display at the Palace of Holyroodhouse in Edinburgh. It features an unusual Persian inscription and was commissioned specifically for the new embassy building in Tehran, completed in 1875, shortly before Queen Victoria was entitled Empress of India, and has been displayed there ever since.The second part of the article will reflect on the display of art recently installed in the British Ambassador's Residence in Tehran, and the curatorial challenges this presented in a country with a long and troubled relationship with Britain. This new display was itself a consequence of an iconoclastic attack on Victoria’s image in 2011 when the embassy was stormed by Iranian protesters - the latest event in a turbulent history.At a time when the UK is having a profound national conversation about how it engages internationally, can Victoria’s image help to build cultural relations in diplomatic spaces or is it only a relic of an imperial past?

Campaign for Charleston

The Union campaign against Charleston and its environs lasted from November 1861 to February 1865. It included a naval blockade, classic siege operations on Morris Island against Confederate fortifications, and the 545-day bombardment of the city. Confederate defenses relied on engineering expertise and technological innovations in the form of torpedoes and submarines. Because Union forces confronted Confederate defenses for such an extended period of time along a lengthy coastline connected to South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, the campaign for Charleston had far-reaching effects. It created a refugee crisis, caused the breakdown of law and order, disrupted farming in interior counties, unleashed slave uprisings, and changed women’s relationship to the state. Because the Union occupation of the coastal Sea Islands was stable from the opening months of the war, this campaign featured prominent experiments with military emancipation, free labor, and the recruiting and use of African American soldiers in combat, such as the 1st South Carolina and the 54th Massachusetts, that profoundly shaped the national conversation about emancipation and civil rights.

Launching a Cross-disciplinary and Cross-national Conversation on Engaged Fatherhood

The aim of this chapter is to explain the motivations for launching an international, cross-disciplinary conversation on fatherhood engagement. This volume stemmed from a Meeting of Experts from three sectors: Health and Wellbeing, Social Policy, and Work and Organizations. This chapter illuminates the unique learning opportunity afforded by coming together to examine the differential and common struggles across these three fields to support engaged fatherhood. The chapter is divided in four parts covering (1) the urgency and importance of supporting fatherhood engagement, (2) the benefits of studying and supporting fatherhood engagement from a cross-sectoral perspective, (3) the main contribution of each chapter in this volume, and (4) our grateful acknowledgements of the many people who made this collaboration possible.

Development of an Equity, Diversity, Inclusion, and Anti-racism Pledge as the Foundation for Action in an Academic Department of Neurology

Recent racial inequities as illustrated by the health disparities in COVID-19 infections and deaths, the recent killings of Black men and women by law enforcement, and the widening socioeconomic inequality and have brought systemic racism into a national conversation. These unprecedented times may have deleterious consequences, increasing stress, and trauma for many members of the neurology workforce. The Equity, Diversity, Inclusion and Anti-Racism Committee within our Department of Neurology provides infrastructure and guidance to foster a culture of belonging and addresses the well-being of faculty, staff, and trainees. Here, we present the creation and implementation of our Equity, Diversity, Inclusion, and Anti-Racism (EDIA) Pledge, which was central to our committee's response to these unprecedented times. We outline the process of developing this unique EDIA Pledge and provide a roadmap for approaching these important topics through a Continuing Medical Education Neurology Grand Rounds aimed at fostering a diverse, inclusive, equitable, and antiracist work environment. Through the lived experiences of 4 faculty members, we identify the impact of bias and microaggressions and encourage allyship and personal development for cultural intelligence. We hope that these efforts will inspire neurology departments and other academic institutions across the globe to make a similar pledge.

Internal political struggle in Scotland on the issue of the region status in 2007–2011

For the first time in the national historiography, various aspects of the internal political struggle in Scotland regarding its political status in 2007–2011 are considered. The key actors in this struggle are identified, the forms and tools used by various political forces to realise their goals are highlighted, and the issue of the Scottish National Party as a government party is explored. The activity of two organisations – «National Conversation» and the Calman Commission, created at the initiative of two opposing camps of Scottish politics, is analysed. It is noted that as a result of their work, the discussion about the political future of the region was brought to a qualitatively new level, and all the main political forces in the region recognised the need to expand the powers of the Scottish Parliament.

Living History

The national conversation about immigration shifted as the Great Depression gave way to World War II. This is apparent in two works that concern the “origin story” of America: the musical Knickerbocker Holiday (1938) and the film Where Do We Go from Here? (1944). Whereas Knickerbocker Holiday paints America as vulnerable to the fascism that had taken hold in Europe, Where Do We Go from Here? holds up the nation as a bastion of freedom and democracy. Weill also tried to feel out the international market with The Firebrand of Florence (1945), but that proved to be the greatest professional miscalculation of his U.S. career. This chapter also discusses the composer’s other wartime activities.

Ink-Stained Word Coiners

Neologizing journalists such as Damon Runyon, Walter Winchell, and the Alsop brothers auditioned one coinage after another, some of which became part of the national conversation (although most didn’t). Columnists such as David Brooks and Thomas Friedman insistently coin words and phrases, few of which have caught on. Inventing words seems to be an occupational hazard of writing a newspaper column. Damon Runyon and Walter Winchell invented words so prolifically that their patois became known as “Runyonese,” and “Winchellese.” Runyon and Winchell were just one of a long line of newspaper columnists whose colorful coinages and overheard slang became part of the American vernacular. Beatnik originated with San Francisco Chronicle columnist Herb Caen, southern strategy with Joseph Alsop, and bleeding heart (liberal do-gooders) with Westbrook Pegler.