Government statistical agencies and the politics of credibility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Rocco
Keyword(s):  
2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 1199-1211
Author(s):  
Jennifer Parker ◽  
Kristen Miller ◽  
Yulei He ◽  
Paul Scanlon ◽  
Bill Cai ◽  
...  

The National Center for Health Statistics is assessing the usefulness of recruited web panels in multiple research areas. One research area examines the use of close-ended probe questions and split-panel experiments for evaluating question-response patterns. Another research area is the development of statistical methodology to leverage the strength of national survey data to evaluate, and possibly improve, health estimates from recruited panels. Recruited web panels, with their lower cost and faster production cycle, in combination with established population health surveys, may be useful for some purposes for statistical agencies. Our initial results indicate that web survey data from a recruited panel can be used for question evaluation studies without affecting other survey content. However, the success of these data to provide estimates that align with those from large national surveys will depend on many factors, including further understanding of design features of the recruited panel (e.g. coverage and mode effects), the statistical methods and covariates used to obtain the original and adjusted weights, and the health outcomes of interest.


Author(s):  
Brian Foley ◽  
Tony Champion ◽  
Ian Shuttleworth

AbstractThe paper compares and contrasts internal migration measured by healthcard-based administrative data with census figures. This is useful because the collection of population data, its processing, and its dissemination by statistical agencies is becoming more reliant on administrative data. Statistical agencies already use healthcard data to make migration estimates and are increasingly confident about local population estimates from administrative sources. This analysis goes further than this work as it assesses how far healthcard data can produce reliable data products of the kind to which academics are accustomed. It does this by examining migration events versus transitions over a full intercensal period; population flows into and out of small areas; and the extent to which it produces microdata on migration equivalent to that in the census. It is shown that for most demographic groups and places healthcard data is an adequate substitute for census-based migration counts, the exceptions being for student households and younger people. However, census-like information is still needed to provide covariates for analysis and this will still be required whatever the future of the traditional census.


1974 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginia H. Gibbons

Dates in parentheses at the end of each statement represent the combined holdings of the Stanford University-Hoover Institution libraries and are meant to serve as a guide to the publication history of the documents.The bibliography is arranged by country and then by issuing agency. The Arabic form of the agency has been used when available.This bibliography is not a comprehensive listing, but rather serves as an introduction to the wealth of material buried in the confusing array of publications of statistical agencies in the Middle East.


2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1005-1019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bronwyn Loong ◽  
Donald B. Rubin

AbstractSeveral statistical agencies have started to use multiply-imputed synthetic microdata to create public-use data in major surveys. The purpose of doing this is to protect the confidentiality of respondents’ identities and sensitive attributes, while allowing standard complete-data analyses of microdata. A key challenge, faced by advocates of synthetic data, is demonstrating that valid statistical inferences can be obtained from such synthetic data for non-confidential questions. Large discrepancies between observed-data and synthetic-data analytic results for such questions may arise because of uncongeniality; that is, differences in the types of inputs available to the imputer, who has access to the actual data, and to the analyst, who has access only to the synthetic data. Here, we discuss a simple, but possibly canonical, example of uncongeniality when using multiple imputation to create synthetic data, which specifically addresses the choices made by the imputer. An initial, unanticipated but not surprising, conclusion is that non-confidential design information used to impute synthetic data should be released with the confidential synthetic data to allow users of synthetic data to avoid possible grossly conservative inferences.


2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 367-394
Author(s):  
Tucker McElroy

Abstract Methodology for seasonality diagnostics is extremely important for statistical agencies, because such tools are necessary for making decisions whether to seasonally adjust a given series, and whether such an adjustment is adequate. This methodology must be statistical, in order to furnish quantification of Type I and II errors, and also to provide understanding about the requisite assumptions. We connect the concept of seasonality to a mathematical definition regarding the oscillatory character of the moving average (MA) representation coefficients, and define a new seasonality diagnostic based on autoregressive (AR) roots. The diagnostic is able to assess different forms of seasonality: dynamic versus stable, of arbitrary seasonal periods, for both raw data and seasonally adjusted data. An extension of the AR diagnostic to an MA diagnostic allows for the detection of over-adjustment. Joint asymptotic results are provided for the diagnostics as they are applied to multiple seasonal frequencies, allowing for a global test of seasonality. We illustrate the method through simulation studies and several empirical examples.


Author(s):  
Jose M Pavia ◽  
Natalia Salazar ◽  
Josep Lledo

Life tables have a substantial influence on both public pension systems andlife insurance policies. National statistical agencies construct life tables fromhypotheses death rate estimates to the (mx aggregated ), or death figures probabilities of demographic (q x ), after applying events (deaths, variousmigrations and births). The use of big data has become extensive acrossmany disciplines, including population statistics. We take advantage of thisfact to create new (more unrestricted) mortality estimators within the familyof period-based estimators, in particular, when the exposed-to-riskpopulation is computed through mid-year population estimates. We useactual data of the Spanish population to explore, by exploiting the detailedmicrodata of births, deaths and migrations (in total, more than 186 milliondemographic events), the effects that different assumptions have oncalculating death probabilities. We also analyse their impact on a sample ofinsurance product. Our results reveal the need to include granular data,including the exact birthdate of each person, when computing period mid-year life tables.


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