Solar Irradiance Fluctuation Prediction Methodology Using Artificial Neural Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 142 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Oktavia Kamadinata ◽  
Tan Lit Ken ◽  
Tohru Suwa
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Movement Direction ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Sampling Points ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract Renewable energy is an attractive alternative source of energy to fossil fuels, as it can help prevent global warming and air pollution. Solar energy, one of the most promising renewable energy sources, can be converted into electricity using photovoltaic power generation systems. Anywhere on the Earth, solar irradiance generally fluctuates during the day but depends on atmospheric conditions. Thus, when a photovoltaic power generation system is connected to a conventional electricity network, predicting near-future global solar irradiance, especially its drastic increases and decreases, is critical to stabilize the network. In this research, a simple method utilizing artificial neural networks to predict large increases and decreases in global solar irradiance is developed. The red–blue ratio (RBR) values, which are extracted from a set of sampling points in images of the sky, as well as the corresponding global solar irradiance values, are used as the artificial neural network inputs. The direction of the movement of clouds is predicted using RBR data at the sampling points. Then, solar irradiance is predicted using the RBR values along the axis closest to the predicted cloud movement direction and the corresponding solar irradiance measurements. The proposed methodology is able to predict both large increases and decreases in solar irradiance greater than 50 through 100 W/m2 1 min in advance with a 40% prediction error. A significant reduction in computational effort is achieved compared to existing sky image-based methodologies using limited sky image data.

scholarly journals DETERMINATION OF RESS GENERATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

2020 ◽  
pp. 76-83
Author(s):  
О. Rubanenko ◽  
D. Danylchenko ◽  
V. Teptya
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Artificial Neural

Paper considers the perspectives and potential of using renewable energy sources to decide the global warming problem. The World trend of increasing electricity generation by photovoltaic power stations according to the International Renewable Energy Agency and the trend of increasing the installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations in Ukraine, which supply the generated capacity at a "green" tariff according to the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy utilities of Ukraine. Opportunities and conditions of using artificial neural networks to defined the power generation of photovoltaic power stations on the example of the power plant "Tsekinivska-2" 4–5 turns are investigated. A platform developed by the European Commission – Photovoltaic Geographical Information System – was used to create a database for the creation and training of artificial neural networks. Regularities of change of meteorological satellite data and their influence on electricity generation of photovoltaic power stations are established. For this purpose, the software complex MATLAB was used, namely the module for the creation of artificial neural networks – Neural Networks Toolbox. The height of the sun is conditionally considered constant and its value is repeated from year to year or has a slight deviation, so it can be used as an indicator of the hour and can be considered known in advance, so determined by empirical formulas and changes only under certain astrophysical laws. Regarding the temperature at 2 m and the wind at 10 m, these meteorological data are known, as they are needed not only for forecasting the operation of renewable energy sources but also in agriculture. Therefore, data related to solar radiation are considered to be the most problematic, as this value is the most difficult to determine. Satellite data may have an error, the installation of weather stations, namely quality pyranometers is a costly procedure, but will help provide a training sample of quality data. To forecast with satisfactory accuracy, it is necessary to collect data for 1 year of operation of the weather station. The nntool and Anfis MATLAB modules were used to predict generation. But the obtained results can be used to assess the effectiveness of the photovoltaic power stations, but they are unsatisfactory for the operational balancing of the system.

scholarly journals Prediction of Solar Irradiance Based on Artificial Neural Networks

Inventions ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waleed I. Hameed ◽  
Baha A. Sawadi ◽  
Safa J. Al-Kamil ◽  
Mohammed S. Al-Radhi ◽  
Yasir I. A. Al-Yasir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Open Circuit Voltage ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Short Circuit ◽  
Short Circuit Current ◽  
Open Circuit ◽  
Pv Module ◽  
Artificial Neural

Prediction of solar irradiance plays an essential role in many energy systems. The objective of this paper is to present a low-cost solar irradiance meter based on artificial neural networks (ANN). A photovoltaic (PV) mathematical model of 50 watts and 36 cells was used to extract the short-circuit current and the open-circuit voltage of the PV module. The obtained data was used to train the ANN to predict solar irradiance for horizontal surfaces. The strategy was to measure the open-circuit voltage and the short-circuit current of the PV module and then feed it to the ANN as inputs to get the irradiance. The experimental and simulation results showed that the proposed method could be utilized to achieve the value of solar irradiance with acceptable approximation. As a result, this method presents a low-cost instrument that can be used instead of an expensive pyranometer.

The Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation for Turkey by Artificial Neural Networks and a Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average Model -2023 Generation Targets by Renewable Energy Resources

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
özlem karadag albayrak
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Generation ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Renewable Energy Generation

Abstract Turkey attaches particular importance to energy generation by renewable energy sources in order to remove negative economic, environmental and social effects caused by fossil resources in energy generation. Renewable energy sources are domestic and do not have any negative effect, such as external dependence in energy and greenhouse gas, caused by fossil resources and which constitute a threat for sustainable economic development. In this respect, the prediction of energy amount to be generated by Renewable Energy (RES) is highly important for Turkey. In this study, a generation forecasting was carried out by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods by utilising the renewable energy generation data between 1965-2019. While it was predicted by ANN that 127.516 TWh energy would be generated in 2023, this amount was estimated to be 45.457 TeraWatt Hour (TWh) by ARIMA (1.1.6) model. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was calculated in order to specify the error margin of the forecasting models. This value was determined to be 13.1% by ANN model and 21.9% by ARIMA model. These results suggested that the ANN model provided a more accurate result. It is considered that the conclusions achieved in this study will be useful in energy planning and management.

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