Estimate Uncertainty: Miscommunication About Definitions of Engineering Terminology

2019 ◽  
Vol 142 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
John Meluso ◽  
Jesse Austin-Breneman ◽  
Jose Uribe
Keyword(s):  
System Performance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Parameter Estimate ◽  
Fortune 500 ◽  
System Level ◽  
Future Design ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Current Design ◽  
Engineered Systems

Abstract Communication has been shown to affect the design of large-scale complex engineered systems. Drawing from engineering design, communication, and management literature, this work defines miscommunication as when communication results in a “deficiency” or “problem” that hinders parties from fulfilling their values. This article details a consequential example of miscommunication at a Fortune 500 engineering firm with the potential to affect system performance. In phase 1, interviews with engineering practitioners (n = 82) identified disagreement about what constitutes a parameter “estimate” in the design process. Phase 2 surveyed engineering practitioners (n = 128) about whether estimates communicated for system-level tracking approximate “current” design statuses or “future” design projections. The survey found that both definitions existed throughout the organization and did not correlate with subsystem, position, or design phase. Engineers inadvertently aggregated both current and future estimates into single system-level parameters that informed decision-making, thereby constituting widespread or systemic miscommunication. Thus, even technical concepts may be susceptible to miscommunication and could affect system performance.

Optimization of Complex Engineered Systems Under Risk and Uncertainty

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung-Kyum Choi ◽  
Mervyn Fathianathan ◽  
Dirk Schaefer
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Optimization Procedure ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Structural Problems ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
Karhunen Loeve Transform

The advances in information technology significantly impact the engineering design process. The primary objective of this research is to develop a novel probabilistic decision support tool to assist management of structural systems under risk and uncertainty by utilizing a stochastic optimization procedure and IT tools. The proposed mathematical and computational framework will overcome the drawbacks of the traditional methods and will be critically demonstrated through large-scale structural problems. The efficiency of the proposed procedure is achieved by the combination of the Karhunen-Loeve transform with the stochastic analysis of polynomial chaos expansion to common optimization procedures. The proposed technology, comprising new and adapted current capabilities, will provide robust and physically reasonable solutions for practical engineering problems.

Gaming the System: An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategies and their Effects on System Performance

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
John Meluso ◽  
Jesse Austin-Breneman
Keyword(s):  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
System Level ◽  
Conservation Strategy ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Bias Estimation ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems

Parameter estimates in large-scale complex engineered systems (LaCES) affect system evolution, yet can be difficult and expensive to test. Systems engineering uses analytical methods to reduce uncertainty, but a growing body of work from other disciplines indicates that cognitive heuristics also affect decision-making. Results from interviews with expert aerospace practitioners suggest that engineers bias estimation strategies. Practitioners reaffirmed known system features and posited that engineers may bias estimation methods as a negotiation and resource conservation strategy. Specifically, participants reported that some systems engineers “game the system” by biasing requirements to counteract subsystem estimation biases. An agent-based model (ABM) simulation which recreates these characteristics is presented. Model results suggest that system-level estimate accuracy and uncertainty depend on subsystem behavior and are not significantly affected by systems engineers' “gaming” strategy.

scholarly journals On the use of coordination strategies in complex engineered system design projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arianne X. Collopy ◽  
Eytan Adar ◽  
Panos Y. Papalambros
Keyword(s):  
System Design ◽  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
System Level ◽  
Engineering Project ◽  
Design Work ◽  
Coordination Strategies ◽  
Technical Leadership ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Design Projects

Abstract Coordination of distributed design work is an important activity in large-scale and complex engineered systems (LSCES) design projects. Coordination strategies have been studied formally in system design optimization and organizational science. This article reports on a study to identify what strategies are used in coordination practice. While the literature primarily offers prescriptive coordination strategies, this study focussed on the contribution of individuals’ behaviours to system-level coordination. Thus, a coordination strategy is seen as a particular set of individual actions and behaviours. We interviewed professionals with expertise in systems engineering, project management and technical leadership at two large aerospace design organizations. Through qualitative thematic analysis, we identified two strategies used to facilitate coordination. The first we call authority-based and is enabled by technical know-how and the use of organizational authority; the second we call empathetic leadership and includes interpersonal skills, leadership traits and empathy. These strategies emerged as complementary and, together, enabled individuals to coordinate complex design tasks. We found that skills identified in competency models enable these coordination strategies, which in turn support management of interdependent work in the organization. Studying the role of individuals contributes an expanded view on how coordination facilitates LSCES design practice.

Ontology-Based Representation of Meta-Design in Designing Decision Workflows

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ru Wang ◽  
Guoxin Wang ◽  
Yan Yan ◽  
Maryam Sabeghi ◽  
Zhenjun Ming ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Thermal System ◽  
Design Decision ◽  
Design Processes ◽  
Future Design ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Hierarchical Decision ◽  
Enterprise Agility ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
Product And Process

Utilizing the enterprise capital related the knowledge of design processes has become a crucial to improve enterprise agility and respond to shifts or changes in markets. The complexity and uncertainty of design processes raise the challenge of capturing tacit knowledge and the ability to provide assistance in designing design processes. In this paper, an ontology is proposed for capturing, representing and documenting the knowledge related to hierarchical decision workflows in the meta-design of complex engineered systems. The ontology is developed in the context of Decision Support Problem Technique (DSPT), taking into account the requirements being able to guide assistance in designing design workflows, and integrating problem, product and process information in a design decision-making process. Then, the method of building procedure and design of process templates are presented to facilitate the reuse of the populated template instances in future design. Finally, the meta-design of the heat exchanger in a small thermal system is presented as an example to illustrate the effectiveness of this approach.

Ontology-Based Representation of Meta-Design in Designing Decision Workflows

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ru Wang ◽  
Guoxin Wang ◽  
Yan Yan ◽  
Maryam Sabeghi ◽  
Zhenjun Ming ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Thermal System ◽  
Design Decision ◽  
Design Processes ◽  
Future Design ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Hierarchical Decision ◽  
Enterprise Agility ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
Product And Process

Utilizing the enterprise capital related the knowledge of design processes has become crucial to improve enterprise agility and respond to shifts or changes in markets. The complexity and uncertainty of design raise the challenge of capturing tacit knowledge and the ability to aid in designing design processes. In this paper, ontology is proposed for capturing, representing, and documenting the knowledge related to hierarchical decision workflows in the meta-design of complex engineered systems. The ontology is developed in the context of decision support problem technique (DSPT), considering the requirements being able to guide assistance in designing design workflows, and integrating problem, product, and process information in a design decision-making process. Then, the approach for building procedure of process templates is presented to facilitate the reuse of the populated template instances in future design. Finally, the meta-design of the heat exchanger in a small thermal system is presented as an example to illustrate the effectiveness of this approach.

Preference Modeling for Government-Owned Large-Scale Complex Engineered Systems: A Satellite Case Study

2017 ◽  
pp. 513-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanumanthrao Kannan ◽  
Syed Shihab ◽  
Maximilian Zellner ◽  
Ehsan Salimi ◽  
Ali Abbas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Preference Modeling ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Engineered Systems
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