A Literature Review on Rail Transport of Hazmat Release Risk Analysis

Author(s):  
Zheyong Bian ◽  
Xiang Liu

Abstract Rail plays an important role in hazmat transportation, transporting over two million carloads of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States annually. Compared with a truck trailer carrying a single hazmat car, a train has much more severe consequence of hazmat release due to carrying multiple connected hazmat cars (e.g., 50 to 120 flammable liquid cars). It is of high priority for the government and railroad companies to enhance the railroad hazmat transportation safety since the train accidents can cause severe railroad hazmat release incidents. Based on the data provided by Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) of the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S.DOT), there are over 300 accident causes, including infrastructure failure defects, rolling stock failures, human errors, weather conditions, etc. It is significant to understand the relationship between hazmat transportation risk and accident cause to provide guidance for developing, evaluating, and prioritizing accident prevention strategies, thereby mitigating hazmat transportation risk. Therefore, this paper reviews the literature on rail transport of hazmat release risk analysis in order to capture the event chain leading to hazmat release, possible risk factors, and the state of the art on existing risk analysis methodologies. We reviewed the related references based on a five-step process: (1) train accident occurrence, (2) number of cars derailed, (3) number of hazardous material cars derailed, (4) number of hazmat cars releasing, and (5) release consequences. First, many severe hazmat release incidents are caused by train accidents, particularly train derailments. Prior research found that over 70% of freight train mainline derailments were caused by either infrastructure defects or rolling stock failures. Possible strategies for reducing the probability of train accidents include the prevention of track defects, equipment condition monitoring to reduce in-service failures, and the use of more advanced train control technologies to reduce human error. Second, number of cars derailed is an important factor causing hazmat releasing. Based on the reviewed literature, the total number of cars derailed depends on accident cause, speed, train length, and point of derailment. Third, the literature implied that the total number of hazmat cars derailed is related to train length, number of hazmat cars and non-hazmat cars in a train, and their placement. Fourth, the number of hazmat cars releasing contents is influenced by hazardous materials car safety design, accident speed, etc. Finally, the consequences of a release can be measured by different metrics, such as property damage, environmental impact, traffic delay, or the affected population. Geographical information systems (GIS) can be used for consequence analysis integrated with other databases such as census and rail network data.

Author(s):  
Xiang Liu ◽  
Tejashree Turla ◽  
Zhipeng Zhang

Rail plays a key role in the transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat). Improving railroad hazmat transportation safety is a high priority for both industry and government. Many severe railroad hazmat release incidents occur because of train accidents. The Federal Railroad Administration identifies over 300 accident causes, including infrastructure defects, rolling stock failures, human factors, and other causes. Understanding how hazmat transportation risk varies with accident cause is a key step in identifying, developing, evaluating, and prioritizing cost-justified accident prevention strategies, thereby mitigating hazmat transportation risk. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated, generalized risk analysis methodology that can estimate accident-cause-specific hazmat transportation risk, accounting for various train and track characteristics, such as train length, speed, point of derailment, the number and placement of tank cars in a train, tank car safety design, and population density along rail lines. Using the two major causes of accidents on freight railroads—broken rails and track geometry defects—as an example, this paper demonstrates a step-by-step analytical procedure and decision support tool to assess how accident frequency, severity, and hazmat transportation risk vary by accident cause. The research method can be adapted for risk analysis at corridor- or network-level accounting for other accident causes.


2017 ◽  
Vol 2608 (1) ◽  
pp. 134-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Liu

This research developed an integrated, generalized risk analysis methodology for comparing hazardous materials transportation risk in unit trains versus mixed trains for the same amount of traffic demand. The risk methodology accounted for FRA track class, method of operation, annual traffic density, train length, speed, point of derailment, the number and placement of tank cars in a train, tank car placement, tank car safety design, and population density along the rail line. With these inputs, the methodology estimates train derailment rate, the probability of tank car derailment and release, and release consequence by train configuration. The analysis showed that tank car positions could affect the risk comparison between unit trains and mixed trains in transporting hazardous materials. In particular, if all tank cars were in positions that were least prone to derailment, distributing tank cars to many unit trains could reduce the overall risk. Otherwise, consolidating tank cars into unit trains could lead to a lower risk. The methodology has been implemented in a computer-aided decision support tool that automatically calculates the risk values for various track, rolling stock, and operational characteristics.


2011 ◽  
Vol 361-363 ◽  
pp. 1230-1239
Author(s):  
Zong Feng Zou ◽  
Bao Quan Zhang

The related issues of hazardous materials transportation in recent years are summarized and reviewed from the following aspects: hazardous materials transportation risk evaluation models, road routing models, the application of related technology, early warning for emergency response and joint action mechanism and platform construction, the research situation and development pattern of unified monitoring platform, etc. Analysis shows that it is essential to establish more in-depth and scientific quantitative models based on the attainment of more comprehensive and continuous data as well as the consideration of various constraints. It is a direction for future research to develop comprehensive application of technology and to establish HAZMAT transportation joint control platform in large area, and the leading and facilitating role of government should be paid more attention on joint control platform construction in large area.


Polar Record ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 30 (174) ◽  
pp. 189-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin M. Harris

AbstractAs a result of new provisions in the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty a number of countries are reviewing the management plans for protected areas in Antarctica. The United States and New Zealand have initiated a review of the 15 existing sites in the Ross Sea region, using an independent party, the International Centre for Antarctic Information and Research, to facilitate and coordinate the process. Management provisions are being revised to comply with the Protocol, and improved maps for the sites are being prepared using Geographical Information Systems. Visits in 1993/94 gathered field information, and thus far two sites have had new plans drafted: these are proceeding through the international review process. Input and comment is invited from interested parties with experience in these areas.


10.2196/14609 ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. e14609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence Fulton ◽  
Clemens Scott Kruse

Background Hospital-based back surgery in the United States increased by 60% from January 2012 to December 2017, yet the supply of neurosurgeons remained relatively constant. During this time, adult obesity grew by 5%. Objective This study aimed to evaluate the demand and associated costs for hospital-based back surgery by geolocation over time to evaluate provider practice variation. The study then leveraged hierarchical time series to generate tight demand forecasts on an unobserved test set. Finally, explanatory financial, technical, workload, geographical, and temporal factors as well as state-level obesity rates were investigated as predictors for the demand for hospital-based back surgery. Methods Hospital data from January 2012 to December 2017 were used to generate geospatial-temporal maps and a video of the Current Procedural Terminology codes beginning with the digit 63 claims. Hierarchical time series modeling provided forecasts for each state, the census regions, and the nation for an unobserved test set and then again for the out-years of 2018 and 2019. Stepwise regression, lasso regression, ridge regression, elastic net, and gradient-boosted random forests were built on a training set and evaluated on a test set to evaluate variables important to explaining the demand for hospital-based back surgery. Results Widespread, unexplained practice variation over time was seen using geographical information systems (GIS) multimedia mapping. Hierarchical time series provided accurate forecasts on a blind dataset and suggested a 6.52% (from 497,325 procedures in 2017 to 529,777 in 2018) growth of hospital-based back surgery in 2018 (529,777 and up to 13.00% by 2019 [from 497,325 procedures in 2017 to 563,023 procedures in 2019]). The increase in payments by 2019 are estimated to be US $323.9 million. Extreme gradient-boosted random forests beat constrained and unconstrained regression models on a 20% unobserved test set and suggested that obesity is one of the most important factors in explaining the increase in demand for hospital-based back surgery. Conclusions Practice variation and obesity are factors to consider when estimating demand for hospital-based back surgery. Federal, state, and local planners should evaluate demand-side and supply-side interventions for this emerging problem.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence Fulton ◽  
Clemens Scott Kruse

BACKGROUND Hospital-based back surgery in the United States increased by 60% from January 2012 to December 2017, yet the supply of neurosurgeons remained relatively constant. During this time, adult obesity grew by 5%. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate the demand and associated costs for hospital-based back surgery by geolocation over time to evaluate provider practice variation. The study then leveraged hierarchical time series to generate tight demand forecasts on an unobserved test set. Finally, explanatory financial, technical, workload, geographical, and temporal factors as well as state-level obesity rates were investigated as predictors for the demand for hospital-based back surgery. METHODS Hospital data from January 2012 to December 2017 were used to generate geospatial-temporal maps and a video of the Current Procedural Terminology codes beginning with the digit 63 claims. Hierarchical time series modeling provided forecasts for each state, the census regions, and the nation for an unobserved test set and then again for the out-years of 2018 and 2019. Stepwise regression, lasso regression, ridge regression, elastic net, and gradient-boosted random forests were built on a training set and evaluated on a test set to evaluate variables important to explaining the demand for hospital-based back surgery. RESULTS Widespread, unexplained practice variation over time was seen using geographical information systems (GIS) multimedia mapping. Hierarchical time series provided accurate forecasts on a blind dataset and suggested a 6.52% (from 497,325 procedures in 2017 to 529,777 in 2018) growth of hospital-based back surgery in 2018 (529,777 and up to 13.00% by 2019 [from 497,325 procedures in 2017 to 563,023 procedures in 2019]). The increase in payments by 2019 are estimated to be US $323.9 million. Extreme gradient-boosted random forests beat constrained and unconstrained regression models on a 20% unobserved test set and suggested that obesity is one of the most important factors in explaining the increase in demand for hospital-based back surgery. CONCLUSIONS Practice variation and obesity are factors to consider when estimating demand for hospital-based back surgery. Federal, state, and local planners should evaluate demand-side and supply-side interventions for this emerging problem.


1991 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 100-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
George F. List ◽  
Pitu B. Mirchandani ◽  
Mark A. Turnquist ◽  
Konstantinos G. Zografos

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 477-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Bubbico ◽  
Sergio Di Cave ◽  
Barbara Mazzarotta

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