Hybrid Event Tree Analysis of Ship Grounding Probability

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dianqing Li ◽  
Wenyong Tang ◽  
Shengkun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Fuzzy Probability ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Ship Grounding ◽  
Tree Method ◽  
Hybrid Event

The probability of occurrence of human-error-dominated event can not be effectively handled by using conventional event tree method. Furthermore, it is impossible to consider the sensitivity and uncertainty of basic events’ probabilities in conventional event tree method. To overcome these disadvantages, the concepts of the fuzzy error rate and the fuzzy error possibility were introduced to represent the failure probability of human-error-dominated event, while the fuzzy probability was used to represent the failure probability of non-human-error-dominated event. Based on them, the fuzzy probability of ship grounding with piloting failure was calculated by hybrid event tree method. Moreover, the fuzzy sensitivity index and the fuzzy uncertainty index were defined. Some grounding probability reducing measures were verified by sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results indicate that the proposed approach is very useful in analyzing the probability of occurrence of human-error-dominated event.

Development of Accidental Scenarios Involving Human Errors for Risk Assessment in Restricted Waters

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo Taverna Martins Pereira de Abreu ◽  
Marcos Coelho Maturana ◽  
Marcelo Ramos Martins
Keyword(s):  
Human Error ◽  
Human Performance ◽  
Typical Feature ◽  
Performance Model ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
Technical Failure ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis

Abstract The navigation in restricted waters imposes several challenges when compared to open sea navigation. Smaller dimensions, higher traffic density and the dynamics of obstacles such as sandbanks are examples of contributors to the difficulty. Due to these aspects, local experienced maritime pilots go onboard in order to support the ship’s crew with their skills and specific regional knowledge. Despite these efforts, several accidents still occur around the world. In order to contribute to a better understanding of the events composing accidental sequences, this paper presents a hybrid modelling specific for restricted waters. The main techniques used are the fault tree analysis and event tree analysis. The former provides a framework to investigate the causes, while the latter allows modelling the sequence of actions necessary to avoid an accident. The models are quantified using statistical data available in the literature and a prospective human performance model developed by the Technique for Early Consideration of Human Reliability (TECHR). The results include combined estimates of human error probabilities and technical failure probabilities, which can be used to inform the causation factor for a waterway risk analysis model. In other words, given that the ship encounters a potential accidental scenario while navigating, the proposed models allow computing the failure probability that of the evasive actions sequence. The novelty of this work resides on the possibility of explicitly considering dynamicity and recovery actions when computing the causation factor, what is not a typical feature of similar works. The results obtained were compared with several results available in the literature and have been shown to be compatible.

AN APPROACH FOR HUMAN ERROR MODES AND EFFECTS ANALYSIS USING HTA+ETA

2008 ◽  
Vol 15 (05) ◽  
pp. 465-478
Author(s):  
SUN ZHIQIANG ◽  
XIE HONGWEI ◽  
SHI XIUJIAN ◽  
LIU FENGQIANG ◽  
LI ZHENGYI
Keyword(s):  
Task Analysis ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
Hierarchical Task Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Generic Framework ◽  
Analytical Tools

A framework for human error modes and effects analysis is presented. The methods of hierarchical task analysis and event tree analysis are introduced as the basic analytical tools, and a novel generic framework for human errors classification is presented as the guidance to identify human errors. Firstly, the process of human error modes and effects analysis is discussed, and the hierarchical task analysis method is introduced briefly. Secondly, the framework for human errors classification is discussed in detail. Thirdly, the multi-states event tree is designed to model the accident scenario. Finally, two scenarios are selected as the examples to illustrate the proposed process of human error modes and effects analysis.

scholarly journals Analysis and risk assessment of risk technical systems to develop of methodology for teaching students using the method event tree (event tree analysis)

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 63-73
Author(s):  
Tsvetelina Simeonova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Sample Sequence ◽  
Student Training ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Risk Analysis And Management ◽  
Tree Method

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for risk analysis, assessment and management using the event tree method. A sample sequence of risk analysis actions is shown with the use the event tree method in determining the probability of realizing a dangerous event including an exemplary event tree pattern according the example under consideration and with the possibility of calculations and for determining the risk at the accepted value of the damage. A methodology for risk analysis is proposed based on the event tree applicable to student training on risk analysis and management.  

Human Factor in the Life Cycle and Safety of Machines and Pipelines

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sviatoslav A. Timashev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Human Reliability Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Main Components

The paper is an overview (using references listed below) and describes the main components, means and methods of a holistic and quantitative human reliability analysis (QHRA) using quantitative values of human error when performing Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). It also deals with qualitative assessment of the influence of the human factor (HF) reliability on safety and risk analysis of potentially dangerous man-machine-structures-environment systems (PDMMSES). Qualitative risk analysis of such man-machine-structures-environment (MMSE) systems is based on using the event-decision technique in combination with a generalized socio-psychological model of the decision making person (DMP). Three types of DMP’s are considered: members of maintenance/repair crews, diagnosticians and different rank DMP’s that operate or own the PDMMSES.

scholarly journals HUMAN FACTOR INFLUENCE ON SYSTEMS MAINTENANCE OPERATIONS

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ljubisa Papic
Keyword(s):  
Human Error ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Key Words Human ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
Initial Event ◽  
Systems Maintenance ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Maintenance Problem

The method of cause-effect diagram is used in the subject investigation to detect and systematize human factors (human errors) that affect the results performing for the mining machines maintenance operation, i.e. sources that cause a maintenance problem. Event Tree Analysis is used as additional method in regard to cause-effect diagram. This method described certain logical events which come from primary initial event – error of maintainer. Event tree is in the subject investigation developed in order to find modes for mitigation waste (injury), rather than prevent waste. Key words: Human factor, maintenance operation, human error cause, "Swiss chese" model, event tree, human reliability prediction.

Impact Analysis of Human Errors on Operation Reliability in Power System

2014 ◽  
Vol 584-586 ◽  
pp. 2597-2603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Kai Bao ◽  
Jun Xi Tang ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Chuang Xin Guo ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Human Error Probability

Based on modification of CREAM extended method, an approach is proposed to calculate the human error probability suitable to power system situation and an operation reliability assessment model is firstly put forward. Then the event tree analysis method is introduced to analyze the impact of human error on operation reliability. Simulation results of IEEE-RTS79 demonstrate that human error makes a significant impact on the operation reliability.

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