Decision Support for Offshore Operations in Remote Arctic Areas TOSC: An Optimization Toolbox Based on Bayesian Networks

SSPA Sweden AB has developed a decision support tool for Arctic offshore operations in close cooperation with the ship owner Transatlantic. With their icebreaking offshore supply vessels, Transatlantic has experience in both offshore operations and ice breaking for the Swedish Maritime Administration, which gives them a unique competence for Arctic offshore tasks. Founded on these experiences SSPA has created a toolbox based on Bayesian networks to provide the decision maker with the required competence to plan, dimension and organise offshore operations. The demands on the model given by Transatlantic for this tool were to include an accurate planning possibility, it should be handy and flexible, successively extendable, based scientifically and it should reflect the operators experience and even experience transfer. The developed tool is based on so called Bayesian Networks. With the help of the graphical directed arrows it is possible to describe complex links and relations between: - specific customer demands and service needs, - supply tasks, icebreaking management, anchor handling, towing, etc., - local external environmental conditions, ice, weather, - surrounding infrastructure, base harbours, transports, - external requirements, national rules, permissions, classification requirements, - possible abnormalities, undesired events, danger of accident, - emergency preparedness, redundant resources, - resources, vessels in use, land-based resources, helicopters, etc. By combining risk analysis methodology, statistics and expert judgements the tool belays and incorporates high safety, cost-benefit, well-reasoned strategies, alternative plans of action and purposive solutions.