On Long Term Statistics of Ocean Storms Starting From Partitioned Sea States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Laface ◽  
Felice Arena ◽  
Christophe Maisondieu ◽  
Alessandra Romolo
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Open Sea ◽  
Storm Duration ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
Actual Seas

The paper proposes an analysis of ocean storms carried out starting from significant wave height time series of HOMERE sea-states hindcast database based on WAVEWATCH III model. Considering that wave spectra often exhibit multiple peaks due to the coexistence of wind waves and swells, here sea states are described by partitioned sea states that can be interpreted physically as representing independent wave systems. The analysis presented here in the paper deals with the contribution of swells to the storm peaks and on how they influence the long term statistics. The sensitivity of return values of significant wave height to swell contribution is investigated via an application of the Equivalent Triangular Storm Model (ETS). The ETS model provides analytical solution for the calculation of the return period R(Hs>h) of a sea storm whose maximum significant wave height exceeds a given threshold h. The approach of ETS consists in substituting each actual storm with an ETS described by two parameters: the storm intensity, that is the triangle height and it is equal to the maximum significant wave height during the actual storm; the storm duration, that is achieved imposing the equality between the maximum expected wave height of actual and equivalent storms. It has been experimentally proved that the actual storm and associated ETS are statistically equivalent because they have the same maximum significant wave height and the same probability P(Hmax>H) that the maximum wave height exceeds a given threshold H. The sequence of ETSs obtained in this way represents the equivalent sea, while the sequence of actual storms is the actual sea. The equivalent and actual seas present the same wave risk because they are characterized by the same number of storm events, each of them with the same intensity and the same P(Hmax>H). For the proposed analysis a set of four points from open sea to the coast is considered in area of the Gulf of Biscay (France). The results show that the contribution of swells is more significant for the storms of small and medium intensity and decreases for increasing storm intensities. Further return values variability neglecting swell is less than 7% at any point for return periods up to 100 years.

On Sampling Between Data of Significant Wave Height for Long-Term Analysis With Equivalent Triangular Storm Model

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felice Arena ◽  
Valentina Laface
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Storm Duration ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
Mean Time

This work proposes an analysis of storms in Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, which is carried out by applying the Boccotti’s Equivalent Triangular Storm (ETS) model. The ETS model represents any actual storm by means of two parameters. The former gives the storm intensity, which is equal to the maximum significant wave height during the actual storm; the latter represents the storm duration and it is such that the maximum expected wave height is the same in the actual storm and in the equivalent triangular storm. Data from buoys of the NOAA-NDBC (National Data Buoy Center, USA) are used in the applications, by considering different sampling Δt between two consecutive records, which varies between 1 and 6 hours. The sensitivity of the ETS model with the variation of Δt is investigated for the long-term modeling of severe storms. The results show that the structure of storms is strongly modified as Δt increases: both the intensity and the duration may change significantly. The effects of this results for long term statistics are investigated by means of the return period R(Hs > h) of a storm in which the maximum significant wave height exceeds the threshold h, which is evaluated by using data with different sampling Δt between two consecutive records. Finally for different values of the return period R, the return value of significant wave height and the mean persistence Dm(h), giving the mean time during which the significant wave height is greater than fixed threshold (in the storms where the threshold is exceeded), are calculated.

Statistical Uncertainty in Long-Term Distributions of Significant Wave Height

1996 ◽  
Vol 118 (4) ◽  
pp. 284-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Guedes Soares ◽  
A. C. Henriques
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Fitting Procedure ◽  
The One ◽  
Homogeneous Data

This work examines some aspects involved in the estimation of the parameters of the probability distribution of significant wave height, in particular the homogeneity of the data sets and the statistical methods of fitting a distribution to data. More homogeneous data sets are organized by collecting the data on a monthly basis and by separating the simple sea states from the combined ones. A three-parameter Weibull distribution is fitted to the data. The parameters of the fitted distribution are estimated by the methods of maximum likelihood, of regression, and of the moments. The uncertainty involved in estimating the probability distribution with the three methods is compared with the one that results from using more homogeneous data sets, and it is concluded that the uncertainty involved in the fitting procedure can be more significant unless the method of moments is not considered.

scholarly journals Long-Term and Seasonal Trends in Global Wave Height Extremes Derived from ERA-5 Reanalysis Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 1015
Author(s):  
Alicia Takbash ◽  
Ian R. Young
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Significant Wave

A non-stationary extreme value analysis of 41 years (1979–2019) of global ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis) significant wave height data is undertaken to investigate trends in the values of 100-year significant wave height, Hs100. The analysis shows that there has been a statistically significant increase in the value of Hs100 over large regions of the Southern Hemisphere. There have also been smaller decreases in Hs100 in the Northern Hemisphere, although the related trends are generally not statistically significant. The increases in the Southern Hemisphere are a result of an increase in either the frequency or intensity of winter storms, particularly in the Southern Ocean.

scholarly journals ON LONG-TERM STATISTICS FOR OCEAN AND COASTAL WAVES

1978 ◽  
Vol 1 (16) ◽  
pp. 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel K. Ochi
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Contingency Table ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Coastal Waves ◽  
Normal Probability ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Confidence Domain

This paper discusses the statistical properties of long-term ocean and coastal waves derived from analysis of available data. It was found from the results of the analysis that the statistical properties of wave height and period obey the bi-variate log-normal probability law. The method to determine the confidence domain for a specified confidence coefficient is presented so that reliable information in severe seas where data are always sparse can be obtained from a contingency table. Estimation of the extreme significant wave height expected in the long-term is also discussed.

scholarly journals Wind Wave Growth at Short Fetch

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (7) ◽  
pp. 1597-1606 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Lamont-Smith ◽  
T. Waseda
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Retention Rates ◽  
Horizontal Distance ◽  
Wave Tank ◽  
Significant Wave

Abstract Wave wire data from the large wind wave tank of the Ocean Engineering Laboratory at the University of California, Santa Barbara, are analyzed, and comparisons are made with published data collected in four other wave tanks. The behavior of wind waves at various fetches (7–80 m) is very similar to the behavior observed in the other tanks. When the nondimensional frequency F* or nondimensional significant wave height H* is plotted against nondimensional fetch x*, a large scatter in the data points is found. Multivariate regression to the dimensional parameters shows that significant wave height Hsig is a function of U2x and frequency F is a function of U1.25x, where U is the wind speed and x is the horizontal distance, with the result that in general for wind waves at a particular fetch in a wave tank, approximately speaking, the wave frequency is inversely proportional to the square root of the wind speed and the wavelength is proportional to the wind speed. Similarly, the wave height is proportional to U1.5 and the orbital velocity is proportional to U. Comparison with field data indicates a transition from this fetch law to the conventional one [the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP)] for longer fetch. Despite differences in the fetch relationship for the wave tank and the field data, the wave height and wave period satisfy Toba’s 3/2 power law. This law imposes a strong constraint on the evolution of wind wave energy and frequency; consequently, the energy and momentum retention rate are not independent. Both retention rates grow with wind speed and fetch at the short fetches present in the wave tank. The observed retention rates are completely different from those typically observed in the field, but the same constraint (Toba’s 3/2 law) holds true.

scholarly journals Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 2955-3001
Author(s):  
H. Cannaby ◽  
M. D. Palmer ◽  
T. Howard ◽  
L. Bricheno ◽  
D. Calvert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Significant Wave

Abstract. Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ~ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean – NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled (~ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980–2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2 year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ~ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

scholarly journals VALIDATION OF JASON-2 AND ENVISAT WIND SPEED AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT DATA IN THE INTERTROPICAL ZONE

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Colaço Melo Dos Passos ◽  
Nelson Violante Carvalho ◽  
Uggo Ferreira Pinho ◽  
Alexandre Pereira Cabral ◽  
Frederico F. Ostritz
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Altimeter Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wave Measurements ◽  
Satellite Radar

ABSTRACT. The estimates of significant wave height (SWH) and wind speed at 10 meter height (u10) from the Jason-2 and ENVISAT satellites, over the intertropical region, are analysed. Some authors have tested the dependency of satellite radar wind/wave measurements on local environmental conditions, particularly on wave age, with no conclusive results. Our data show that Jason-2 overestimates high values of SWH and underestimates low values, while ENVISAT exhibits the opposite behaviour. The correlation coefficient between buoy measurements and altimeter data is around 0.95, with bias and root mean square error (RMSE) of, 3 and 15 cm respectively. On the other hand, Jason-2 underestimates u10 throughout the whole measured range, while ENVISAT overestimates throughout the whole range for speeds over 3 m/s. The correlation coefficient is around 0.90, with bias and RMSE around 0.20 cm and 1.5 m/s, respectively. The altimeter estimates in the intertropical region are similar to those obtained with global coverage, hence the sensitivity to sea state to extract wind speed and wave height is not so obvious in our data set. Therefore, the results indicate that the algorithms employed have a fair enough performance in the intertropical region.Keywords: wind waves, wind speed, altimeter, Jason-2, ENVISAT. RESUMO. As estimativas de altura significativa de onda (SWH) e de intensidade do vento a 10 metros de altura (u10) dos altímetros dos satélites Jason-2 e ENVISAT, obtidas na região intertropical, são analisadas. Alguns trabalhos apontam para uma possível dependência da esbeltez das ondas, e portanto do estado de mar, para extração de u10 e SWH, o que tornaria os algoritmos empregados dependentes da localidade. Os resultados aqui obtidos mostram que o Jason-2 em geral superestima altos valores de SWH e subestima baixos valores, enquanto que para o ENVISAT a tendência encontrada é a inversa. Foram obtidos coeficientes de correlação entre a SWH de boias e dos altímetros em torno de 0,95, e bias e erro médio quadrático (RMSE) de aproximadamente 3 e 15 cm, respectivamente. Em relação à u10, o Jason-2 subestima ligeiramente os valores, independente da faixa de intensidade do vento, enquanto que o ENVISAT os superestimam em quase todas as faixas de intensidade, exceto para ventos menores que 3 c/s. Os coeficientes de correlação se encontram em torno de 0,90, com bias e erro médio quadrático de, respectivamente, aproximadamente 0,20 cm e 1,5 c/s. Os resultados indicam que o desempenho na região intertropical é similar aos resultados obtidos empregando medições globais, que são altamente concentradas em altas latitudes no Hemisfério Norte. O efeito da condição do estado de mar para extração de SWH e u10, caso seja importante, não aparenta ser considerável no conjunto de dados aqui empregado. Portanto, os resultados apontam para um desempenho bastante aceitável de tais algoritmos quando empregados na região intertropical.Palavras-chave: altura significativa de ondas, intensidade do vento, altimetria, Jason-2, ENVISAT.

scholarly journals Characteristics of high monsoon wind-waves observed at multiple stations in the eastern Arabian Sea

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Amrutha ◽  
V. Sanil Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Spatial Distance ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Eastern Arabian Sea ◽  
Crest Height

Abstract. The growth and decay of surface wind-waves during one-month period in a typical Indian summer monsoon is investigated based on the data collected at 9 to 15 m water depth at 4 locations in the nearshore waters of the eastern Arabian Sea covering a spatial distance of ~ 350 km. The significant wave height varied from 0.7 to 5.5 m during the data collection considered in the analysis. The heights of waves during the measurement period often exceed 3 m. The most extreme wave height is 1.50 to 1.62 times the significant wave height and the most extreme crest height of the wave is 1.23 to 1.35 times the significant wave height of the same 30-minutes record. The average ratio of crest height of the wave to the height of the same wave is 0.58 to 0.67. The height of waves having maximum crest height is smaller than the maximum wave height during 30 minutes period. Measured waves are predominantly swell, but since the majority of wave generation during the monsoon is adjacent to the study area and the wind–wave coupling is strong, wave periods are rarely above 15 s. The numerical wave model could estimate the wave height reasonably well during the wave growth compared to the wave decay period. Hovmöller diagrams show a considerable spatial variability in the wave and wind pattern in the Indian Ocean during the high wave event at the eastern Arabian Sea.

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