Impact of Climate Change on the North Sea Offshore Energy Sector

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Fournier ◽  
Galina Guentchev ◽  
Justin Krijnen ◽  
Andy Saulter ◽  
Caroline Acton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Energy Industry ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Indicators ◽  
The North Sea

The complex nature of the energy industry across extraction, transportation, processing, delivery and decommissioning creates significant challenges to how the sector responds, adapts and mitigates against risks posed by the changing future climate. Any disruption in this interconnected system will affect both industry and society. For example, in the summer of 2005 Hurricane Katrina and a month later Hurricane Rita had wide reaching impacts on the US offshore Oil and Gas industry which resulted in an increase in global oil prices due to loss of production and refinery shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico. Preparing, mitigating and adapting to these climate changes is dependent upon identifying appropriate climate indicators as well as the associated critical operational thresholds and design criteria of the identified vulnerable assets. The characterization and understanding of the likely changes in these climate indicators will form the basis for adaptation plans and mitigating actions. The Met Office in collaboration with energy industry partners, under the Copernicus Clim4energy European project, has developed a Climate Change Risk Assessment tool, which allows the visualization and extraction of the most recent sea level and wave climate information to evaluate their future changes. This study illustrates the application of this tool for evaluation of the potential vulnerability of an offshore infrastructure in the North Sea. The analysis shows that for this asset there is a small increase in sea level of 0.20–0.30 m at the location of interest by 2050. However, there is a small decrease or no consistent changes projected in the future wave climate. This wave signal is small compared to the uncertainty of the wave projections and the associated inter-annual variability. Therefore, for the 2050s time horizon, at the location of interest, there is no strong impact of climate change at the annual scale on the significant wave height, the sea level and thus the associated climate change driven extreme water level. However, further analysis are required at the seasonal and monthly scales.

scholarly journals Wave Climate Change in the North Sea and Baltic Sea

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Bonaduce ◽  
Joanna Staneva ◽  
Arno Behrens ◽  
Jean-Raymond Bidlot ◽  
Renate Anna Irma Wilcke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea

Wave climate change by the end of the 21st century (2075–2100) was investigated using a regional wave climate projection under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The performance of the historical run (1980–2005) in representing the present wave climate was assessed when compared with in situ (e.g., GTS) and remote sensing (i.e., Jason-1) observations and wave hindcasts (e.g., ERA5-hindcast). Compared with significant wave height observations in different subdomains, errors on the order of 20–30% were observed. A Principal Component (PC) analysis showed that the temporal leading modes obtained from in situ data were well correlated (0.9) with those from the historical run. Despite systematic differences (10%), the general features of the present wave climate were captured by the historical run. In the future climate projection, with respect to the historical run, similar wave climate change patterns were observed when considering both the mean and severe wave conditions, which were generally larger during summer. The range of variation in the projected extremes (±10%) was consistent with those observed in previous studies both at the global and regional spatial scales. The most interesting feature was the projected increase in extreme wind speed, surface Stokes drift speed and significant wave height in the Northeast Atlantic. On the other hand, a decrease was observed in the North Sea and the southern part of the Baltic Sea basin, while increased extreme values occurred in the Gulf of Bothnia during winter.

What can idealized storm surge simulations tell us about worst case scenarios?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elin Andrée ◽  
Jian Su ◽  
Martin Drews ◽  
Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen ◽  
Asger Bendix Hansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Sea Coast ◽  
North Sea Coast

<p>The potential impacts of extreme sea level events are becoming more apparent to the public and policy makers alike. As the magnitude of these events are expected to increase due to climate change, and increased coastal urbanization results in ever increasing stakes in the coastal zones, the need for risk assessments is growing too.</p><p>The physical conditions that generate extreme sea levels are highly dependent on site specific conditions, such as bathymetry, tidal regime, wind fetch and the shape of the coastline. For a low-lying country like Denmark, which consists of a peninsula and islands that partition off the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea from the North Sea, a better understanding of how the local sea level responds to wind forcing is urgently called for.</p><p>We here present a map for Denmark that shows the most efficient wind directions for generating extreme sea levels, for a total of 70 locations distributed all over the country’s coastlines. The maps are produced by conducting simulations with a high resolution, 3D-ocean model, which is used for operational storm surge modelling at the Danish Meteorological Institute. We force the model with idealized wind fields that maintain a fixed wind speed and wind direction over the entire model domain. Simulations are conducted for one wind speed and one wind direction at a time, generating ensembles of a set of wind directions for a fixed wind speed, as well as a set of wind speeds for a fixed wind direction, respectively.</p><p>For each wind direction, we find that the maximum water level at a given location increases linearly with the wind speed, and the slope values show clear spatial patterns, for example distinguishing the Danish southern North Sea coast from the central or northern North Sea Coast. The slope values are highest along the southwestern North Sea coast, where the passage of North Atlantic low pressure systems over the shallow North Sea, as well as the large tidal range, result in a much larger range of variability than in the more sheltered Inner Danish Waters. However, in our simulations the large fetch of the Baltic Sea, in combination with the funneling effect of the Danish Straits, result in almost as high water levels as along the North Sea coast.</p><p>Although the wind forcing is completely synthetic with no spatial and temporal structure of a real storm, this idealized approach allows us to systematically investigate the sea level response at the boundaries of what is physically plausible. We evaluate the results from these simulations by comparison to peak water levels from a 58 year long, high resolution ocean hindcast, with promising agreement.</p>

Decline in Atlantic wolffish Anarhichas lupus in the North Sea: Impacts of fishing pressure and climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna K. Bluemel ◽  
Simon Fischer ◽  
David W. Kulka ◽  
Christopher P. Lynam ◽  
Jim R. Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Fishing Pressure ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Anarhichas Lupus ◽  
Atlantic Wolffish

scholarly journals Mean sea level variability in the North Sea: Processes and implications

2014 ◽  
Vol 119 (10) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Sönke Dangendorf ◽  
Francisco M. Calafat ◽  
Arne Arns ◽  
Thomas Wahl ◽  
Ivan D. Haigh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Mean Sea Level Variability

scholarly journals Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 105230
Author(s):  
Michael Weinert ◽  
Moritz Mathis ◽  
Ingrid Kröncke ◽  
Thomas Pohlmann ◽  
Henning Reiss
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Marine Protected Areas ◽  
Benthic Species ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea

scholarly journals The effects of climate change on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1525-1557
Author(s):  
K. O'Driscoll ◽  
B. Mayer ◽  
J. Su ◽  
M. Mathis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Pollutants ◽  
North Sea ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Persistent Organic Pollutants ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Sea

Abstract. The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and γ-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models. To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10 yr periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. Since estimates of future concentration levels of POPs in the atmosphere, oceans and rivers are not available, our approach was to reutilise 2005 values in the atmosphere, rivers and at the open ocean boundaries for every year of the simulations. In this way, we attribute differences between the three 10 yr simulations to climate change only. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilised, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model. Dry gas deposition and volatilisation of γ-HCH increase in the future relative to the present. In the water column, total mass of γ-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment, γ-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, both of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.

scholarly journals Hydrogeological characterisation of a glacially affected barrier island – the North Frisian Island of Föhr

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 5085-5119 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Burschil ◽  
W. Scheer ◽  
R. Kirsch ◽  
H. Wiederhold
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Underground Structure ◽  
Empirical Relation ◽  
Geophysical Methods ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Hydrogeological Model ◽  
Borehole Data ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
D Model

Abstract. We present the application of geophysical investigations to characterise and improve the geological/hydrogeological model through the estimation of petrophysical parameters for groundwater modelling. Seismic reflection and airborne electromagnetic surveys in combination with borehole information enhance the 3-D geological model and allow a petrophysical interpretation of the subsurface. The North Sea Island of Föhr has a very complex underground structure what was already known from boreholes. The local waterworks use a freshwater body embedded in saline groundwater. Several glaciations disordered the Youngest Tertiary and Quaternary sediments by glaciotectonic thrust-faulting as well as incision and refill of glacial valleys. Both underground structures have a strong impact on the distribution of freshwater bearing aquifers. An initial hydrogeological model of Föhr was built from borehole data alone and was restricted to the southern part of the island where in the sandy areas of the Geest a large freshwater body was formed. We improved the geological/hydrogeological model by adding data from different geophysical methods, e.g. airborne electromagnetics (EM) for mapping the resistivity of the entire island, seismic reflections for detailed cross sections in the groundwater catchment area, and geophysical borehole logging for calibration of these measurements. An integrated evaluation of the results from the different geophysical methods yields reliable data. To determinate petrophysical parameter about 18 borehole logs, more than 75 m deep, and nearby airborne EM inversion models were analyzed concerning resistivity. We establish an empirical relation between measured resistivity and hydraulic conductivity for the specific area – the North Sea island of Föhr. Five boreholes concerning seismic interval velocities discriminate sand and till. The interpretation of these data was the basis for building the geological/hydrogeological 3-D model. We fitted the relevant model layers to all geophysical and geological data and created a consistent 3-D model. This model is the fundament for groundwater simulations considering forecasted changes in precipitation and sea level rise due to climate change.

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