Analysis of the Arctic sea ice conditions for 2011 at the onset of summer minimum

2012 ◽  
Vol 48 (9) ◽  
pp. 1027-1038 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. G. Platonov ◽  
I. N. Mordvintsev ◽  
V. V. Rozhnov ◽  
I. V. Alpatsky
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Summer Minimum

Prévoir les variations saisonnières de la glace de mer arctique et leurs impacts sur le climat

2020 ◽  
pp. 024
Author(s):  
Rym Msadek ◽  
Gilles Garric ◽  
Sara Fleury ◽  
Florent Garnier ◽  
Lauriane Batté ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Recent Effort ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Upper Level

L'Arctique est la région du globe qui s'est réchauffée le plus vite au cours des trente dernières années, avec une augmentation de la température de surface environ deux fois plus rapide que pour la moyenne globale. Le déclin de la banquise arctique observé depuis le début de l'ère satellitaire et attribué principalement à l'augmentation de la concentration des gaz à effet de serre aurait joué un rôle important dans cette amplification des températures au pôle. Cette fonte importante des glaces arctiques, qui devrait s'accélérer dans les décennies à venir, pourrait modifier les vents en haute altitude et potentiellement avoir un impact sur le climat des moyennes latitudes. L'étendue de la banquise arctique varie considérablement d'une saison à l'autre, d'une année à l'autre, d'une décennie à l'autre. Améliorer notre capacité à prévoir ces variations nécessite de comprendre, observer et modéliser les interactions entre la banquise et les autres composantes du système Terre, telles que l'océan, l'atmosphère ou la biosphère, à différentes échelles de temps. La réalisation de prévisions saisonnières de la banquise arctique est très récente comparée aux prévisions du temps ou aux prévisions saisonnières de paramètres météorologiques (température, précipitation). Les résultats ayant émergé au cours des dix dernières années mettent en évidence l'importance des observations de l'épaisseur de la glace de mer pour prévoir l'évolution de la banquise estivale plusieurs mois à l'avance. Surface temperatures over the Arctic region have been increasing twice as fast as global mean temperatures, a phenomenon known as arctic amplification. One main contributor to this polar warming is the large decline of Arctic sea ice observed since the beginning of satellite observations, which has been attributed to the increase of greenhouse gases. The acceleration of Arctic sea ice loss that is projected for the coming decades could modify the upper level atmospheric circulation yielding climate impacts up to the mid-latitudes. There is considerable variability in the spatial extent of ice cover on seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales. Better understanding, observing and modelling the interactions between sea ice and the other components of the climate system is key for improved predictions of Arctic sea ice in the future. Running operational-like seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice is a quite recent effort compared to weather predictions or seasonal predictions of atmospheric fields like temperature or precipitation. Recent results stress the importance of sea ice thickness observations to improve seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions during summer.

scholarly journals Inter-Relations between the Arctic Sea Ice and the General Circulation of the Atmosphere (Abstract)

1987 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 252-252
Author(s):  
G. Wendler ◽  
M. Jeffries ◽  
Y. Nagashima
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Zonal Circulation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Opposing Effects

Satellite imagery has substantially improved the quality of sea-Ice observation over the last decades. Therefore, for a 25-year period, a statistical study based on the monthly Arctic sea-ice data and the monthly mean 700 mbar maps of the Northern Hemisphere was carried out to establish the relationships between sea-ice conditions and the general circulation of the atmosphere. It was found that sea-ice conditions have two opposing effects on the zonal circulation intensity, depending on the season. Heavier than normal ice in winter causes stronger than normal zonal circulation in the subsequent months, whereas heavier than normal ice in the summer–fall causes weaker zonal circulation in the subsequent months. Analyzing the two sectors, the Atlantic and Pacific ones separately, a negative correlation was found, which means a heavy ice year in the Atlantic Ocean is normally associated with a light one in the Pacific Ocean and vice versa.

The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Deser ◽  
Robert Tomas ◽  
Michael Alexander ◽  
David Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The authors investigate the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss at the end of the twenty-first century using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a land surface model. The response was obtained from two 60-yr integrations: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of specified sea ice conditions for the late twentieth century (1980–99) and one with that of sea ice conditions for the late twenty-first century (2080–99). In both integrations, a repeating seasonal cycle of SSTs for 1980–99 was prescribed to isolate the impact of projected future sea ice loss. Note that greenhouse gas concentrations remained fixed at 1980–99 levels in both sets of experiments. The twentieth- and twenty-first-century sea ice (and SST) conditions were obtained from ensemble mean integrations of a coupled GCM under historical forcing and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario forcing, respectively. The loss of Arctic sea ice is greatest in summer and fall, yet the response of the net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean is largest in winter. Air temperature and precipitation responses also maximize in winter, both over the Arctic Ocean and over the adjacent high-latitude continents. Snow depths increase over Siberia and northern Canada because of the enhanced winter precipitation. Atmospheric warming over the high-latitude continents is mainly confined to the boundary layer (below ∼850 hPa) and to regions with a strong low-level temperature inversion. Enhanced warm air advection by submonthly transient motions is the primary mechanism for the terrestrial warming. A significant large-scale atmospheric circulation response is found during winter, with a baroclinic (equivalent barotropic) vertical structure over the Arctic in November–December (January–March). This response resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in February only. Comparison with the fully coupled model reveals that Arctic sea ice loss accounts for most of the seasonal, spatial, and vertical structure of the high-latitude warming response to greenhouse gas forcing at the end of the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Inter-Relations between the Arctic Sea Ice and the General Circulation of the Atmosphere

1987 ◽  
Vol 33 (114) ◽  
pp. 173-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Wendler ◽  
Y. Nagashima
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Zonal Circulation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Opposing Effects

AbstractSatellite imagery has substantially improved the quality of sea-ice observation over the last decades. Therefore, for a 25 year period, a statistical study based on the monthly Arctic sea-ice data and the monthly mean 700 mbar maps of the Northern Hemisphere was carried out to establish the relationships between sea-ice conditions and the general circulation of the atmosphere. It was found that sea-ice conditions have two opposing effects on the zonal circulation intensity, depending on the season. Heavier than normal ice in winter causes stronger than normal zonal circulation in the subsequent months, whereas heavier than normal ice in the summer-fall causes weaker zonal circulation in the subsequent months. Analyzing the two sectors, the Atlantic and Pacific ones separately, a negative correlation was found, which means a heavy ice year in the Atlantic Ocean is normally associated with a light one in the Pacific Ocean and vice versa.

scholarly journals Arctic sea-ice change: a grand challenge of climate science

2010 ◽  
Vol 56 (200) ◽  
pp. 1115-1121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir M. Kattsov ◽  
Vladimir E. Ryabinin ◽  
James E. Overland ◽  
Mark C. Serreze ◽  
Martin Visbeck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Grand Challenge ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Instrumental Records

AbstractOver the period of modern satellite observations, Arctic sea-ice extent at the end of the melt season (September) has declined at a rate of >11% per decade, and there is evidence that the rate of decline has accelerated during the last decade. While climate models project further decreases in sea- ice mass and extent through the 21st century, the model ensemble mean trend over the period of instrumental records is smaller than observed. Possible reasons for the apparent discrepancy between observations and model simulations include observational uncertainties, vigorous unforced climate variability in the high latitudes, and limitations and shortcomings of the models stemming in particular from gaps in understanding physical process. The economic significance of a seasonally sea-ice-free future Arctic, the increased connectivity of a warmer Arctic with changes in global climate, and large uncertainties in magnitude and timing of these impacts make the problem of rapid sea-ice loss in the Arctic a grand challenge of climate science. Meaningful prediction/projection of the Arctic sea-ice conditions for the coming decades and beyond requires determining priorities for observations and model development, evaluation of the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed sea-ice behavior as a part of the broader climate system, improved attribution of the causes of Arctic sea-ice change, and improved understanding of the predictability of sea-ice conditions on seasonal through centennial timescales in the wider context of the polar climate predictability.

Mission Based Ship Design Under Uncertain Arctic Sea Ice Conditions

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minjoo Choi ◽  
Stein Ove Erikstad ◽  
Sören Ehlers
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Arctic Change ◽  
Dynamic Route

For the design of an ice-going ship, determining its ice-capability is one of the key design aspects. Excessive ice-capability increases the ship’s acquisition cost and reduces its deadweight capacity. On the other hand, less ice-capability limits its serviceable area and it decreases the probability for the ship to complete its given/expected missions successfully. The ice conditions, which the ship would encounter during its operations, are dependent on its route planning, and they become a basis for the determination of its ice-capability. For the design of an ice-going ship, which is going to be operated under constant operational conditions, static route analysis or use of historical voyage data is sufficient to estimate its required ice-capability. However, if the operational conditions change dynamically, like the Arctic sea ice conditions, a dynamic route analysis is needed. Otherwise, the required ice-capability tends to be over-estimated by the static analysis. Sea ice conditions in the Arctic change dynamically from hour-to-hour. In addition, the forecast of its operational conditions has a high uncertainty due to lack of understanding of the Arctic sea ice. Thus, for the design of a ship for Arctic operation, we carry out transit simulations in a dynamic and stochastic manner in this paper and estimate the required ice-capability from the simulations’ result.

Navigation in the Russian Arctic: Sea Ice Caused Difficulties and Accidents

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nataliya Marchenko
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Russian Arctic ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
The North ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions

The 5 Russian Arctic Seas have common features, but differ significantly from each other in the sea ice regime and navigation specifics. Navigation in the Arctic is a big challenge, especially during the winter season. However, it is necessary, due to limited natural resources elsewhere on Earth that may be easier for exploitation. Therefore sea ice is an important issue for future development. We foresee that the Arctic may become ice free in summer as a result of global warming and even light yachts will be able to pass through the Eastern Passage. There have been several such examples in the last years. But sea ice is an inherent feature of Arctic Seas in winter, it is permanently immanent for the Central Arctic Basin. That is why it is important to get appropriate knowledge about sea ice properties and operations in ice conditions. Four seas, the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi have been examined in the book “Russian Arctic Seas. Navigation Condition and Accidents”, Marchenko, 2012 [1]. The book is devoted to the eastern sector of the Arctic, with a description of the seas and accidents caused by heavy ice conditions. The traditional physical-geographical characteristics, information about the navigation conditions and the main sea routes and reports on accidents that occurred in the 20th century have reviewed. An additional investigation has been performed for more recent accidents and for the Barents Sea. Considerable attention has been paid to problems associated with sea ice caused by the present development of the Arctic. Sea ice can significantly affect shipping, drilling, and the construction and operation of platforms and handling terminals. Sea ice is present in the main part of the east Arctic Sea most of the year. The Barents Sea, which is strongly influenced and warmed by the North Atlantic Current, has a natural environment that is dramatically different from those of the other Arctic seas. The main difficulties with the Barents Sea are produced by icing and storms and in the north icebergs. The ice jet is the most dangerous phenomenon in the main straits along the Northern Sea Route and in Chukchi Seas. The accidents in the Arctic Sea have been classified, described and connected with weather and ice conditions. Behaviour of the crew is taken into consideration. The following types of the ice-induced accidents are distinguished: forced drift, forced overwintering, shipwreck, and serious damage to the hull in which the crew, sometimes with the help of other crews, could still save the ship. The main reasons for shipwrecks and damages are hits of ice floes (often in rather calm ice conditions), ice nipping (compression) and drift. Such investigation is important for safety in the Arctic.

Arctic sea ice extent and thickness

1995 ◽  
Vol 352 (1699) ◽  
pp. 301-319 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Fast Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Current knowledge on Arctic sea ice extent and thickness variability is reviewed, and we examine whether measurements to date provide evidence for the impact of climate change. The total Arctic ice extent has shown a small but significant reduction of (2.1 ± 0.9)% during the period 1978-87, after apparently increasing from a lower level in the early 1970s. However, open water within the pack ice limit has also diminished, so that the reduction of sea ice area is only (1.8 ± 1.2)%. This stability conceals large interannual variations and trends in individual regions of the Arctic Ocean and sub-Arctic seas, which are out of phase with one another and so have little net impact on the overall hemispheric ice extent. The maximum annual global extent (occurring during the Antarctic winter) shows a more significant decrease of 5% during 1972-87. Ice thickness distribution has been measured by submarine sonar profiling, moored upward sonars, airborne laser prohlometry, airborne electromagnetic techniques and drilling. Promising new techniques include: sonar mounted on an AUV or neutrally buoyant float; acoustic tomography or thermometry; and inference from a combination of microwave sensors. In relation to climate change, the most useful measurement has been repeated submarine sonar profiling under identical parts of the Arctic, which offers some evidence of a decline in mean ice thickness in the 1980s compared to the 1970s. The link between mean ice thickness and climatic warming is complex because of the effects of dynamics and deformation. Only fast ice responds primarily to air temperature changes and one can predict thinning of fast ice and extension of the open water season in fast ice areas. Another region of increasingly mild ice conditions is the central Greenland Sea where winter thermohaline convection is triggered by cyclic growth and melt of local young ice. In recent years convection to the bottom has slowed or ceased, possibly related to moderation of ice conditions.

scholarly journals Inter-Relations between the Arctic Sea Ice and the General Circulation of the Atmosphere (Abstract)

1987 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 252
Author(s):  
G. Wendler ◽  
M. Jeffries ◽  
Y. Nagashima
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Zonal Circulation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Opposing Effects

Satellite imagery has substantially improved the quality of sea-Ice observation over the last decades. Therefore, for a 25-year period, a statistical study based on the monthly Arctic sea-ice data and the monthly mean 700 mbar maps of the Northern Hemisphere was carried out to establish the relationships between sea-ice conditions and the general circulation of the atmosphere. It was found that sea-ice conditions have two opposing effects on the zonal circulation intensity, depending on the season. Heavier than normal ice in winter causes stronger than normal zonal circulation in the subsequent months, whereas heavier than normal ice in the summer–fall causes weaker zonal circulation in the subsequent months. Analyzing the two sectors, the Atlantic and Pacific ones separately, a negative correlation was found, which means a heavy ice year in the Atlantic Ocean is normally associated with a light one in the Pacific Ocean and vice versa.

scholarly journals Inter-Relations between the Arctic Sea Ice and the General Circulation of the Atmosphere

1987 ◽  
Vol 33 (114) ◽  
pp. 173-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Wendler ◽  
Y. Nagashima
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Zonal Circulation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Opposing Effects

Abstract Satellite imagery has substantially improved the quality of sea-ice observation over the last decades. Therefore, for a 25 year period, a statistical study based on the monthly Arctic sea-ice data and the monthly mean 700 mbar maps of the Northern Hemisphere was carried out to establish the relationships between sea-ice conditions and the general circulation of the atmosphere. It was found that sea-ice conditions have two opposing effects on the zonal circulation intensity, depending on the season. Heavier than normal ice in winter causes stronger than normal zonal circulation in the subsequent months, whereas heavier than normal ice in the summer-fall causes weaker zonal circulation in the subsequent months. Analyzing the two sectors, the Atlantic and Pacific ones separately, a negative correlation was found, which means a heavy ice year in the Atlantic Ocean is normally associated with a light one in the Pacific Ocean and vice versa.

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