Subnational estimates of factors associated with under-five mortality in Kenya: a spatio-temporal analysis, 1993–2014

BackgroundTo improve child survival, it is necessary to describe and understand the spatial and temporal variation of factors associated with child survival beyond national aggregates, anchored at decentralised health planning units. Therefore, we aimed to provide subnational estimates of factors associated with child survival while elucidating areas of progress, stagnation and decline in Kenya.MethodsTwenty household surveys and three population censuses conducted since 1989 were assembled and spatially aligned to 47 subnational Kenyan county boundaries. Bayesian spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression models accounting for inadequate sample size and spatio-temporal relatedness were fitted for 43 factors at county level between 1993 and 2014.ResultsNationally, the coverage and prevalence were highly variable with 38 factors recording an improvement. The absolute percentage change (1993–2014) was heterogeneous ranging between 1% and 898%. At the county level, the estimates varied across space and over time with a majority showing improvements after 2008 which was preceded by a period of deterioration (late-1990 to early-2000). Counties in Northern Kenya were consistently observed to have lower coverage of interventions and remained disadvantaged in 2014 while areas around Central Kenya had and historically have had higher coverage across all intervention domains. Most factors in Western and South-East Kenya recorded moderate intervention coverage although having a high infection prevalence of both HIV and malaria.ConclusionThe heterogeneous estimates necessitates prioritisation of the marginalised counties to achieve health equity and improve child survival uniformly across the country. Efforts are required to narrow the gap between counties across all the drivers of child survival. The generated estimates will facilitate improved benchmarking and establish a baseline for monitoring child development goals at subnational level.

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Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the 2019-nCoV Epidemic at the County Level in Hubei Province, China

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17072563 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (7) ◽

pp. 2563 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Wentao Yang ◽

Min Deng ◽

Chaokui Li ◽

Jincai Huang

Keyword(s):

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Spatial Interaction ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Temporal Patterns ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Hubei Province ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

County Level ◽

Spatial Clusters ◽

Spatio Temporal

Understanding the spatio-temporal characteristics or patterns of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic is critical in effectively preventing and controlling this epidemic. However, no research analyzed the spatial dependency and temporal dynamics of 2019-nCoV. Consequently, this research aims to detect the spatio-temporal patterns of the 2019-nCoV epidemic using spatio-temporal analysis methods at the county level in Hubei province. The Mann–Kendall and Pettitt methods were used to identify the temporal trends and abrupt changes in the time series of daily new confirmed cases, respectively. The local Moran’s I index was applied to uncover the spatial patterns of the incidence rate, including spatial clusters and outliers. On the basis of the data from January 26 to February 11, 2020, we found that there were 11 areas with different types of temporal patterns of daily new confirmed cases. The pattern characterized by an increasing trend and abrupt change is mainly attributed to the improvement in the ability to diagnose the disease. Spatial clusters with high incidence rates during the period were concentrated in Wuhan Metropolitan Area due to the high intensity of spatial interaction of the population. Therefore, enhancing the ability to diagnose the disease and controlling the movement of the population can be confirmed as effective measures to prevent and control the regional outbreak of the epidemic.

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The Spatio-temporal Analysis of b-value in the Banda Arc, Indonesia

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/873/1/012010 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 873 (1) ◽

pp. 012010

Author(s):

Muhammad Bani Al-Rasyid ◽

Mira Nailufar Rusman ◽

Daniel Hamonangan ◽

Pepen Supendi ◽

Kartika Hajar Kirana

Keyword(s):

Temporal Variation ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

B Value ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽

Tectonic Structure ◽

Time Period ◽

Banda Arc ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The Impact ◽

Large Earthquakes

Abstract Banda arc is a complex tectonic structure manifests by high seismicity due to the collision of a continent and an intra-oceanic island arc. Using the relocated earthquakes data from ISC-EHB and BMKG catalogues from the time period of 1960 to 2018, we have conducted a spatial and temporal variation of b-value using the Guttenberg-Richter formula in the area. Our results show that the spatial distribution of low b-values located in the south of Ambon Island and southeast of Buru Island. On the other hand, the temporal variation of b-value shows a decrease in the northern part of the Banda sea probably high potential to produce large earthquakes in the future. Therefore, further mitigation is needed to minimize the impact of earthquakes in the area.

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The impact of child health interventions and risk factors on child survival in Kenya, 1993–2014: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis with counterfactual scenarios

BMC Medicine ◽

10.1186/s12916-021-01974-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Peter M. Macharia ◽

Noel K. Joseph ◽

Robert W. Snow ◽

Benn Sartorius ◽

Emelda A. Okiro

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Child Health ◽

Child Survival ◽

Ecological Factors ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Infection Prevalence ◽

Intervention Coverage ◽

Under Five ◽

Maternal Autonomy ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background During the millennium development goals period, reduction in under-five mortality (U5M) and increases in child health intervention coverage were characterised by sub-national disparities and inequities across Kenya. The contribution of changing risk factors and intervention coverage on the sub-national changes in U5M remains poorly defined. Methods Sub-national county-level data on U5M and 43 factors known to be associated with U5M spanning 1993 and 2014 were assembled. Using a Bayesian ecological mixed-effects regression model, the relationships between U5M and significant intervention and infection risk ecological factors were quantified across 47 sub-national counties. The coefficients generated were used within a counterfactual framework to estimate U5M and under-five deaths averted (U5-DA) for every county and year (1993–2014) associated with changes in the coverage of interventions and disease infection prevalence relative to 1993. Results Nationally, the stagnation and increase in U5M in the 1990s were associated with rising human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and reduced maternal autonomy while improvements after 2006 were associated with a decline in the prevalence of HIV and malaria, increase in access to better sanitation, fever treatment-seeking rates and maternal autonomy. Reduced stunting and increased coverage of early breastfeeding and institutional deliveries were associated with a smaller number of U5-DA compared to other factors while a reduction in high parity and fully immunised children were associated with under-five lives lost. Most of the U5-DA occurred after 2006 and varied spatially across counties. The highest number of U5-DA was recorded in western and coastal Kenya while northern Kenya recorded a lower number of U5-DA than western. Central Kenya had the lowest U5-DA. The deaths averted across the different regions were associated with a unique set of factors. Conclusion Contributions of interventions and risk factors to changing U5M vary sub-nationally. This has important implications for targeting future interventions within decentralised health systems such as those operated in Kenya. Targeting specific factors where U5M has been high and intervention coverage poor would lead to the highest likelihood of sub-national attainment of sustainable development goal (SDG) 3.2 on U5M in Kenya.

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Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and its determinants of Hand, Food and Mouth Diseases in Shaanxi province, China: a county level analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-19793/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Li Ding ◽

Ning Zhang ◽

Bin Zhu ◽

Jinlin Liu ◽

Xue Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Diseases ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Shaanxi Province ◽

Annual Growth Rate ◽

County Level ◽

Mouth Diseases ◽

Temporal Characteristics ◽

Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background: Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the common intestinal infectious diseases worldwide, which caused a huge economic and disease burden in many counties. In China, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention included the HFMD into the Class C reported infectious diseases. The average annual growth rate of HFMD is 16.43%. Shaanxi is a special region which across three temperature zones. Hence, in this study, the spatial-temporal analysis of Shaanxi would reveal the characteristics of distribution of HFMD and explore the related determinants of HFMD.Methods: The county-level and municipal data of Shaanxi province from 2009 to 2018 were applied to research the spatio-temporal characteristics of HFMD and its meteorological determinants. Time series analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were applied to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of HFMD. This study used spatial econometric panel models to explore the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors.Results: The incidence rate of HFMD displayed no long-term changing pattern from temporal perspective. The high incidence rate of HFMD were observed from June to September, which is the season with a climate characterized by heavy rain, high temperature, and high humidity. The high spot is mainly located in central region in Shaanxi. The Low-low clusters were mainly found in Northern Shaanxi. As for the meteorological factors analyzed in this study, the waterfall, temperature and humidity in one specific and surrounding region is positive association with incidence rate of HFMD in specific region.Conclusion: The results could be applied by government and general public to take effective measures to prevent diseases. The region-targeted policies could be enacted and implemented in the future. The local government needs take responsible for the health management of immigration and mobile population. The citizen should cultivate good living habits such as hand-washing habit and the eating habit.

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