scholarly journals The status and future of tidal marshes in New Jersey faced with sea level rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-192
Author(s):  
Judith S. Weis ◽  
Elizabeth Burke Watson ◽  
Beth Ravit ◽  
Charles Harman ◽  
Metthea Yepsen
Keyword(s):  
New Jersey ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Tidal Marshes ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Marsh Loss ◽  
Migration Pathways

Salt marshes are key coastal ecosystems that provide habitats for wildlife, including invertebrates, fishes, and birds. They provide ecosystem services such as protection from storm surges and waves, attenuation of flooding, sequestration of pollutants (e.g., blue carbon), and nutrient removal. They are currently under great threat from sea level rise (SLR). We collected information about trends in the horizontal extent (acreage) of New Jersey salt marshes and recent elevation changes compared with the current local rate of SLR in New Jersey, which is between 5 and 6 mm year−1. We found pervasive, although variable, rates of marsh loss that resulted from both anthropogenic disturbance as well as edge erosion and interior ponding expected from SLR. Elevation trends suggest that the current rates of SLR exceed most marsh elevation gains, although some Phragmites-dominated marshes keep pace with SLR. Four potential remedies to address current coastal trends of marsh loss were described in the context of New Jersey’s regulatory and management environment: protection of marsh inland migration pathways, altered management of Phragmites, thin layer sediment placement, and living shoreline installations. Proactive steps are necessary if coastal wetland ecosystems are to be maintained over the next few decades.

scholarly journals Impact of Barrier Breaching on Wetland Ecosystems under the Influence of Storm Surge, Sea-Level Rise and Freshwater Discharge

Wetlands ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 771-785 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorong Li ◽  
Nicoletta Leonardi ◽  
Andrew J. Plater
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wetland Ecology ◽  
Barrier Beach ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Wetland Habitats

Abstract Coastal wetland ecosystems and biodiversity are susceptible to changes in salinity brought about by the local effects of climate change, meteorological extremes, coastal evolution and human intervention. This study investigates changes in the salinity of surface water and the associated impacts on back-barrier wetlands as a result of breaching of a barrier beach and under the compound action of different surge heights, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), river discharge and rainfall. We show that barrier breaching can have significant effects in terms of vegetation die-back even without the occurrence of large storm surges or in the absence of SLR, and that rainfall alone is unlikely to be sufficient to mitigate increased salinity due to direct tidal flushing. Results demonstrate that an increase in sea level corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario for year 2100 causes a greater impact in terms of reedbed loss than storm surges up to 2 m with no SLR. In mitigation of the consequent changes in wetland ecology, regulation of relatively small and continuous river discharge can be regarded as a strategy for the management of coastal back-barrier wetland habitats and for the maintenance of brackish ecosystems. As such, this study provides a tool for scoping the potential impacts of storms, climate change and alternative management strategies on existing wetland habitats and species.

Preventing local extinctions of tidal marsh endemic Seaside Sparrows and Saltmarsh Sparrows in eastern North America

The Condor ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 121 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel G Roberts ◽  
Rebecca A Longenecker ◽  
Matthew A Etterson ◽  
Chris S Elphick ◽  
Brian J Olsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Jersey ◽  
North America ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Persistence ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Saltmarsh Sparrow ◽  
Management Actions

Abstract Globally limited to 45,000 km2, salt marshes and their endemic species are threatened by numerous anthropogenic influences, including sea-level rise and predator pressure on survival and nesting success. Along the Atlantic coast of North America, Seaside (Ammospiza maritima) and Saltmarsh (A. caudacuta) sparrows are endemic to salt marshes, with Saltmarsh Sparrows declining by 9% annually. Because vital rates and factors affecting population persistence vary for both species, local estimates are necessary to best predict population persistence in response to management actions. We used a metapopulation model to estimate the population viability of the breeding Seaside and Saltmarsh sparrow populations in coastal New Jersey over a 42-yr period. We incorporated empirical data on the vital rates and abundances of these populations and simulated the effect of low (0.35 m) and high (0.75 m) levels of sea-level rise. We found that the Seaside Sparrow population persisted under both sea-level rise scenarios; however, the Saltmarsh Sparrow population reached a quasi-extinction threshold within 20 yr. Using the same framework, we modeled potential management scenarios that could increase the persistence probability of Saltmarsh Sparrows and found that fecundity and juvenile survival rates will require at least a 15% concurrent increase for the local population to persist beyond 2050. Future field research should evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of management actions, such as predator control, for increasing Saltmarsh Sparrow vital rates in order to maintain the species in coastal New Jersey.

scholarly journals Evaluating indicators of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise along a historical marsh loss gradient

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (9) ◽  
pp. 2107-2117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennert Schepers ◽  
Matthew L. Kirwan ◽  
Glenn R. Guntenspergen ◽  
Stijn Temmerman
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Marsh Loss

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Storm Surges and Sea-level Rise on Nesting Habitat of Red-breasted Mergansers (Mergus serrator) on Barrier Islands in New Brunswick, Canada

Waterbirds ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn R. Craik ◽  
Alan R. Hanson ◽  
Rodger D. Titman ◽  
Matthew L. Mahoney ◽  
Éric Tremblay
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Barrier Islands ◽  
Nesting Habitat ◽  
Mergus Serrator ◽  
And Sea Level

The potential impacts of sea level rise on the coastal region of New Jersey, USA

2008 ◽  
Vol 90 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. P. Cooper ◽  
Michael D. Beevers ◽  
Michael Oppenheimer
Keyword(s):  
New Jersey ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Region

Salt marshes adjustment to anthropogenic pressures and sea-level rise

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Rita Carrasco ◽  
Katerina Kombiadou ◽  
Miguel Amado
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ria Formosa ◽  
Sediment Loads ◽  
Human Interventions ◽  
South Portugal ◽  
And Sea Level

<p>It is predictable that salt marshes in regions, where sediment loads are high, should be stable against a broader range of relative sea level scenarios than those in sediment-poor systems. Despite extensive theoretical and laboratory studies, additional syntheses of marsh ‘persistence’ indicators under human interventions and accelerated sea-level rise rates are still needed. This study investigates the recent lateral changes occurring in lagoon-type marshes of the Ria Formosa lagoon (south Portugal) in the presence of human interventions and sea-level rise, to identify the major drivers for past marsh evolution and to estimate potential future trends. The conducted analysis assessed the past geomorphological adjustment based on imagery analysis and assessed its potential future adjustment to sea-level rise (~100 years) based on modelled land cover changes (by employing the SLAMM model within two sea-level rise scenarios).</p><p>Salt marshes in the Ria Formosa showed slow lateral growth rates over the last 70 years (<1 mm∙yr<sup>-1</sup>), with localized erosion along the main navigable channels associated with dredging activities. Higher change rates were noted near the inlets, with stronger progradation near the natural inlets of the system, fed by sediment influx pulses. Any potential influence of sea-level increase to an intensification of marsh-edge erosion in the past, could not be distinguished from human-induced pressures in the area. No significant sediment was exchanged between the salt marshes and tidal flats, and no self-organization pattern between them was observed in past. The related analysis showed that landcover changes in the salt marsh areas are likely to be more prominent in the future. The obtained results showed evidence of non-linearity in marsh response to high sea-level rise rates, which could indicate to the presence of critical thresholds and potential negative feedbacks within the system, with significant implications to marsh resilience.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (45) ◽  
pp. 11861-11866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andra J. Garner ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
Robert E. Kopp ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
York City ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Tidal Level

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.

scholarly journals Biogeomorphic modeling to assess resilience of tidal marsh restoration to sea level rise and sediment supply

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Gourgue ◽  
Jim van Belzen ◽  
Christian Schwarz ◽  
Wouter Vandenbruwaene ◽  
Joris Vanlede ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tidal Marsh ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Suspended Sediments ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Tidal Marshes ◽  
Marsh Restoration ◽  
Tidal Marsh Restoration ◽  
Increasing Demand

Abstract. There is an increasing demand for creation and restoration of tidal marshes around the world, as they provide highly valued ecosystem services. Yet, tidal marshes are strongly vulnerable to factors such as sea level rise and declining sediment supply. How fast the restored ecosystem develops, how resilient it is to sea level rise, and how this can be steered by restoration design, are key questions that are typically challenging to assess. In this paper, we apply a biogeomorphic model to a planned tidal marsh restoration by dike breaching. Our modeling approach integrates tidal hydrodynamics, sediment transport and vegetation dynamics, accounting for relevant fine-scale flow-vegetation interactions (less than 1 m2) and their impact on vegetation and landform development at the landscape scale (several km2) and on the long term (several decades). Our model performance is positively evaluated against observations of vegetation and geomorphic development in adjacent tidal marshes. Model scenarios demonstrate that the restored tidal marsh can keep pace with realistic rates of sea level rise and that its resilience is more sensitive to the availability of suspended sediments than to the rate of sea level rise. We further demonstrate that restoration design options can steer marsh resilience, as it affects the rates and spatial patterns of biogeomorphic development. By varying the width of two dike breaches, which serve as tidal inlets to the restored marsh, we show that a larger difference in the width of the two inlets leads to more diversity in restored habitats. This study showcases that biogeomorphic modeling can support management choices in restoration design to optimize tidal marsh development towards sustainable restoration goals.

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