The effect of climate change on the western rock lobster (Panulirus cygnus) fishery of Western Australia

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Caputi ◽  
Roy Melville-Smith ◽  
Simon de Lestang ◽  
Alan Pearce ◽  
Ming Feng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rock Lobster ◽  
Westerly Winds ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Panulirus Cygnus ◽  
El Nino Events

Environmental factors such as the Leeuwin Current (influenced by the El Niño – Southern Oscillation cycle) and westerly winds in late winter – spring significantly affect puerulus settlement of the western rock lobster ( Panulirus cygnus ) fishery. Climate change is causing an increase in water temperature that is seasonally variable, a weakening of westerly winds in winter, and an increase in the frequency of El Niño events. Rising water temperatures over 35 years may have resulted in a decrease in size at maturity and size of migrating lobsters from shallow to deep water, increases in abundance of undersized and legal-sized lobsters in deep water relative to shallow water, and shifts in catch to deep water. The size of migrating lobsters is related to the water temperature about the time of puerulus settlement (four years previously). Climate change effects on puerulus settlement, catchability, females moulting from setose to non-setose, timing of moults, and peak catch rates are assessed. As climate change models project that the warming trend will continue, these biological trends are likely to continue. The changes may have negative (increasing frequency of El Niño events) or positive (increasing water temperature) implications for the fishery, which need to be taken into account in stock assessments and management.

scholarly journals Climate change and the demise of Minoan civilization

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 525-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. A. Tsonis ◽  
K. L. Swanson ◽  
G. Sugihara ◽  
P. A. Tsonis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Geological Evidence ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Ancient Civilizations ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. Climate change has been implicated in the success and downfall of several ancient civilizations. Here we present a synthesis of historical, climatic, and geological evidence that supports the hypothesis that climate change may have been responsible for the slow demise of Minoan civilization. Using proxy ENSO and precipitation reconstruction data in the period 1650–1980 we present empirical and quantitative evidence that El Nino causes drier conditions in the area of Crete. This result is supported by modern data analysis as well as by model simulations. Though not very strong, the ENSO-Mediterranean drying signal appears to be robust, and its overall effect was accentuated by a series of unusually strong and long-lasting El Nino events during the time of the Minoan decline. Indeed, a change in the dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system occurred around 3000 BC, which culminated in a series of strong and frequent El Nino events starting at about 1450 BC and lasting for several centuries. This stressful climatic trend, associated with the gradual demise of the Minoans, is argued to be an important force acting in the downfall of this classic and long-lived civilization.

scholarly journals Effects of the 2016 El Niño on the Galapagos artisanal coastal fin-fish fishery

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose R Marin Jarrin ◽  
Pelayo Salinas-de-León
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Predatory Fish ◽  
Trophic Chain ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Catch Composition ◽  
The Impact ◽  
El Nino Events

El Niño events heavily influence physical characteristics in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and lead to a decrease in nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and to variation in the composition of the marine trophic chain. However, El Niño events can also provide an opportunity to evaluate the possible effects climate change may have on marine ecosystems. The Galapagos Marine Reserve coastal fin-fish fishery supports approximately 400 fishers that target species that include benthic/demersal predatory fish such as the endemic Galapagos whitespotted sandbass (Paralabrax albomaculatus), the regional endemic sailfin grouper (Mycteroperca olfax) and mottled scorpion fish (Pontinus clemensi), and the misty grouper (Hyporthodon mystacinus). The first two species are listed as vulnerable and endangered, respectively, on the IUCN red list of threatened species. Despite their potential effects on the biota, at present it is unclear how El Niño events influence artisanal fin-fish fisheries in the Galapagos. To study the impacts of El Niño events on the fishery, numerical percentage catch composition at the largest dock in Santa Cruz Island was recorded during March and April 2013, 2014 and 2016 and compared. Compositions were significantly different between 2016 and both 2013 and 2014, but not between 2013 and 2014. These differences appear to have been due to the appearance of uncommon demersal/benthic predatory fish such as Grape eye seabass (Hemilutjanus macrophthalmos) and Pacific dog snapper (Lutjanus novemfasciatus). Size frequency distributions also varied, with significantly larger sizes of several species observed in 2016 when compared to 2013 or 2014. These changes in catch composition and size may be a product of a reduction in nutrient concentration and primary production that led to an increase in water clarity and decrease in prey biomass that forced these benthic fish species to change their feeding behavior and strike at baits that usually would not be easily detected. Because of the conservative life history many of these benthic predatory fish exhibit and the absence of any form of management for fish species in the GMR, El Niño events may have profound effects on their populations due to the elimination of the largest individuals. Management actions, such as size and catch limits and closures, directed at reducing the impact of the fishery on these important fish populations in the near- (El Niños) and long-term (climate change) future should be encouraged.

scholarly journals Long Island Sound Temperature Variability and its Associations with the Ridge-trough Dipole and Tropical Modes of Sea Surface Temperature Variability

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin A. Schulte ◽  
Sukyoung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Water Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Dipole Pattern ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. Possible mechanisms behind the longevity of intense Long Island Sound (LIS) water temperature events are examined using an event-based approach. By decomposing a LIS surface water temperature time series into negative and positive events, it is revealed that the most intense LIS water temperature event in the 1979–2013 period occurred around 2012, coinciding with the 2012 ocean heat wave across the mid-Atlantic Bight. The LIS events are related to a ridge-trough dipole pattern whose strength and evolution can be measured using a dipole index. The dipole index was shown to be strongly correlated with LIS water temperature anomalies, explaining close to 64 % of cool-season LIS water temperature variability. Consistently, a major dipole pattern event coincided with the intense 2012 LIS warm event. A composite analysis revealed that long-lived intense LIS water temperature events are associated with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. The onset and mature phases of LIS cold events were shown to coincide with central Pacific El Niño events, whereas the termination of LIS cold events was shown to possibly coincide with canonical El Niño events or El Niño events that are a mixture of eastern and central Pacific El Niño flavors. The mature phase of LIS warm events was shown to be associated with negative SST anomalies across the central equatorial Pacific, though the results were not found to be robust. The dipole pattern was also shown to be related to tropical SST patterns and fluctuations in central Pacific SST anomalies were shown to evolve coherently with the dipole pattern and the strongly related East Pacific/North Pacific pattern on decadal time scales. The results from this study have important implications for seasonal and decadal prediction of the LIS thermal system.

scholarly journals Effects of the 2016 El Niño on the Galapagos artisanal coastal fin-fish fishery

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose R Marin Jarrin ◽  
Pelayo Salinas-de-León
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fish Species ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Predatory Fish ◽  
Trophic Chain ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Catch Composition ◽  
The Impact ◽  
El Nino Events

El Niño events heavily influence physical characteristics in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and lead to a decrease in nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and to variation in the composition of the marine trophic chain. However, El Niño events can also provide an opportunity to evaluate the possible effects climate change may have on marine ecosystems. The Galapagos Marine Reserve coastal fin-fish fishery supports approximately 400 fishers that target species that include benthic/demersal predatory fish such as the endemic Galapagos whitespotted sandbass (Paralabrax albomaculatus), the regional endemic sailfin grouper (Mycteroperca olfax) and mottled scorpion fish (Pontinus clemensi), and the misty grouper (Hyporthodon mystacinus). The first two species are listed as vulnerable and endangered, respectively, on the IUCN red list of threatened species. Despite their potential effects on the biota, at present it is unclear how El Niño events influence artisanal fin-fish fisheries in the Galapagos. To study the impacts of El Niño events on the fishery, numerical percentage catch composition at the largest dock in Santa Cruz Island was recorded during March and April 2013, 2014 and 2016 and compared. Compositions were significantly different between 2016 and both 2013 and 2014, but not between 2013 and 2014. These differences appear to have been due to the appearance of uncommon demersal/benthic predatory fish such as Grape eye seabass (Hemilutjanus macrophthalmos) and Pacific dog snapper (Lutjanus novemfasciatus). Size frequency distributions also varied, with significantly larger sizes of several species observed in 2016 when compared to 2013 or 2014. These changes in catch composition and size may be a product of a reduction in nutrient concentration and primary production that led to an increase in water clarity and decrease in prey biomass that forced these benthic fish species to change their feeding behavior and strike at baits that usually would not be easily detected. Because of the conservative life history many of these benthic predatory fish exhibit and the absence of any form of management for fish species in the GMR, El Niño events may have profound effects on their populations due to the elimination of the largest individuals. Management actions, such as size and catch limits and closures, directed at reducing the impact of the fishery on these important fish populations in the near- (El Niños) and long-term (climate change) future should be encouraged.

Beautiful on the Inside

2021 ◽  
pp. 116-141
Author(s):  
William H. Durham
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Mating Season ◽  
Food Scarcity ◽  
Marine Iguanas ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Marine Iguana ◽  
Over Time ◽  
El Nino Events

Marine iguanas stand in stark contrast to the Galápagos rails. They vary enormously in space by size and color, supporting classification into 11 subspecies (whereas rails are monotypic). And they vary in time, especially males, which change to bright colors in the mating season—some to the point of being bright red and green “Christmas iguanas.” They vary over time in an additional special way: iguanas shrink up to 20% (or 2.7 inches) during the food scarcity of El Niño events. They have evolved the capacity to shut down their normal stress response when the ocean gets warm, thus becoming quiescent and riding out the storm. The larger the iguanas, the more they shrink and the longer they survive. Furthermore, nearly all marine iguana subspecies have increased in size since 1905, while, at the same time, climate change has made El Niño events stronger and longer. Could climate change be driving the evolution of larger marine iguanas? Will iguanas be able to keep up as El Niño worsens?

scholarly journals Long Island Sound temperature variability and its associations with the ridge–trough dipole and tropical modes of sea surface temperature variability

Ocean Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin A. Schulte ◽  
Sukyoung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Water Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Dipole Pattern ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. Possible mechanisms behind the longevity of intense Long Island Sound (LIS) water temperature events are examined using an event-based approach. By decomposing an LIS surface water temperature time series into negative and positive events, it is revealed that the most intense LIS water temperature event in the 1979–2013 period occurred around 2012, coinciding with the 2012 ocean heat wave across the Mid-Atlantic Bight. The LIS events are related to a ridge–trough dipole pattern whose strength and evolution can be determined using a dipole index. The dipole index was shown to be strongly correlated with LIS water temperature anomalies, explaining close to 64 % of cool-season LIS water temperature variability. Consistently, a major dipole pattern event coincided with the intense 2012 LIS warm event. A composite analysis revealed that long-lived intense LIS water temperature events are associated with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. The onset and mature phases of LIS cold events were shown to coincide with central Pacific El Niño events, whereas the termination of LIS cold events was shown to possibly coincide with canonical El Niño events or El Niño events that are a mixture of eastern and central Pacific El Niño flavors. The mature phase of LIS warm events was shown to be associated with negative SST anomalies across the central equatorial Pacific, though the results were not found to be robust. The dipole pattern was also shown to be related to tropical SST patterns, and fluctuations in central Pacific SST anomalies were shown to evolve coherently with the dipole pattern and the strongly related East Pacific–North Pacific pattern on decadal timescales. The results from this study have important implications for seasonal and decadal prediction of the LIS thermal system.

scholarly journals Optimally growing initial errors of El Niño events in the CESM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Xu ◽  
Lei Chen ◽  
Wansuo Duan
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Initial Error ◽  
Initial Errors ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Type 3 ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractThe optimally growing initial errors (OGEs) of El Niño events are found in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method. Based on the characteristics of low-dimensional attractors for ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) systems, we apply singular vector decomposition (SVD) to reduce the dimensions of optimization problems and calculate the CNOP in a truncated phase space by the differential evolution (DE) algorithm. In the CESM, we obtain three types of OGEs of El Niño events with different intensities and diversities and call them type-1, type-2 and type-3 initial errors. Among them, the type-1 initial error is characterized by negative SSTA errors in the equatorial Pacific accompanied by a negative west–east slope of subsurface temperature from the subsurface to the surface in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. The type-2 initial error is similar to the type-1 initial error but with the opposite sign. The type-3 initial error behaves as a basin-wide dipolar pattern of tropical sea temperature errors from the sea surface to the subsurface, with positive errors in the upper layers of the equatorial eastern Pacific and negative errors in the lower layers of the equatorial western Pacific. For the type-1 (type-2) initial error, the negative (positive) temperature errors in the eastern equatorial Pacific develop locally into a mature La Niña (El Niño)-like mode. For the type-3 initial error, the negative errors in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific propagate eastward with Kelvin waves and are intensified in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Although the type-1 and type-3 initial errors have different spatial patterns and dynamic growing mechanisms, both cause El Niño events to be underpredicted as neutral states or La Niña events. However, the type-2 initial error makes a moderate El Niño event to be predicted as an extremely strong event.

scholarly journals Studies of the seasonal prediction of heavy late spring rainfall over southeastern China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouwen Zhang ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Hua Jiang ◽  
Wentao Ma
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
River Region ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractThe late spring rainfall may account for 15% of the annual total rainfall, which is crucial to early planting in southeastern China. A better understanding of the precipitation variations in the late spring and its predictability not only greatly increase our knowledge of related mechanisms, but it also benefits society and the economy. Four models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) were selected to study their abilities to forecast the late spring rainfall over southeastern China and the major sources of heavy rainfall from the perspective of the sea surface temperature (SST) field. We found that the models have better abilities to forecast the heavy rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region (MLYZR) with only a 1-month lead time, but they failed for a 3-month lead time since the occurrence of the heavy rainfall was inconsistent with the observations. The observations indicate that the warm SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean are vital to the simultaneously heavy rainfall in the MLYZR in May, but an El Niño event is not a necessary condition for determining the heavy rainfall over the MLYZR. The heavy rainfall over the MLYZR in May is always accompanied by warming of the northeastern Indian Ocean and of the northeastern South China Sea (NSCS) from April to May in the models and observations, respectively. In the models, El Niño events may promote the warming processes over the northeastern Indian Ocean, which leads to heavy rainfall in the MLYZR. However, in the real world, El Niño events are not the main reason for the warming of the NSCS, and further research on the causes of this warming is still needed.

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