New discoveries of Geometridae (Lepidoptera) from the extreme southwest of the Russian Far East – result of climate impact?

New founds of 4 species of East Asian Geometridae: Megabiston plumosaria (Leech, 1891), Photoscotosia lucicolens (Butler, 1878), Callabraxas fabiolaria (Oberthür, 1884), and Dysstroma cinereata (Moore, 1867) in the extreme southwest of the Russian Far East are presented and discussed due to the actual distribution and its current trends. From them Ph. lucicolens is recorded from Russia and China (Jilin) for the first time. Identity of specimens of "Photoscotosia atrostrigata" and "Dysstroma cinereata" in Barcode of Life Database is revised to Ph. lucicolens and Paradysstroma corussaria (Oberthür, 1880) respectively. These founds probably indicate northern expansion of ranges of geometrid moth in accordance with the current climatic trend of global warming. Potential harmfulness of M. plumosaria in RFE is assumed. The validity of Dysstroma cinerea cesa Koçak & Kemal, 2001, as a substitute name for Dysstroma cinereata japonica (Heydemann, 1929) is substantiated.

Analysis of rainfall and temperatures for climatic trend in Kullu valley

Kullu valley is famous for tourism and agricultural activities but recently it has assumed importance for studies on climatic variability. There is an increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures but no trend in annual rainfall. The slope of regression line for annual rainfall was negative at Bajaura and positive at Katrain but both were non significant. The coefficient of variation for annual rainfall (22 %) and for monsoon rainfall (33 %) was showing the consistence of annual and southwest monsoon rainfall but, a shifting of monsoon from its wettest months was observed. The rainfall was most variable during post monsoon season at Bajaura and in winter at Katrain. The decreasing rate in rainfall was higher during the recent period than the decadal period. Monthly, seasonal and annual average minimum temperature was showing decreasing trend at Bajaura and an increasing trend at Katrain, but, maximum temperature is increasing at both the stations. The minimum temperature was most variable during the winter season whereas the maximum temperature was during summer. Higher the altitude higher the variability in minimum temperature but lower the altitude higher the variability in maximum temperature. Both maximum and minimum temperatures were showing a higher rate of increasing during the recent period.

The climatic trends of temperature and salinity in the Bering straight in the last decades

Представлены результаты расчетов линейных климатических трендов температуры и солености поверхностных вод Берингова пролива и прилегающих акваторий за временной период 1950 – 2020 гг., отдельно за август и февраль месяцы. Отмечается нагрев поступающей тихоокеанской воды в Чукотское море в летний период на +0,120С/10лет, в зимний период +0,140С/10лет. Одновременно происходит временной тренд в сторону уменьшения солености поступающих вод, это ‒0,060/00/10лет в летний сезон и ‒0,03 S0/00/10лет в зимний сезон. Таким образом в случае инерционного изменения климата через 100 лет вода в Беринговом проливе будет на 1,30С теплее и на 0,450/00 менее соленой. Сделаны оценки роста потока тепла через Берингов пролив в Чукотское море вследствие климатического тренда, который составляет +2,4*1019Дж/10лет. Отмечено, что направления трендов температуры и солености в Беринговом море и Беринговом проливе в сторону нагрева и уменьшения солености совпадают, а в Чукотском море климатические тенденции противоположные. The calculation of the climatic linear trends of the surface waters temperature and salinity in the Bering Strait and nearby water areas are presented. The time period is 1950 – 2020 years. The Time data for the warm season - August and the cold season - February series are shown separately. The heating of the incoming Pacific water into the Chukchi Sea is note. There is the summer period +0.120C/decade, in the winter period +0.140C/decade. At the same time, there is some trend towards decrease in salinity the straight water, this is ‒0.06psu/decade in the summer season and this is ‒0.03psu/decade in the winter season. Following of an inertial climate change in 100 years there is the Bering Strait water will be +1.30Cwarmer and ‒0.45psu/decade salty less. The estimate of the heat flux increase through the Bering Strait to the Chukchi Sea due to the climatic trend is +2.4*1019J/decade. There is a peculiarity that the time trends of temperature and salinity in the Bering Sea and the Bering Strait have the same direction to the heating and the salinity decrease, but at the same time the Chukchi Sea has the opposite tendency. An explanation of this discrepancy is given.

Effect of Time-Resolution of Rainfall Data on Trend Estimation for Annual Maximum Depths with a Duration of 24 Hours

The main challenge of this paper is to demonstrate that one of the most frequently conducted analyses in the climate change field could be affected by significant errors, due to the use of rainfall data characterized by coarse time-resolution. In fact, in the scientific literature, there are many studies to verify the possible impacts of climate change on extreme rainfall, and particularly on annual maximum rainfall depths, Hd, characterized by duration d equal to 24 h, due to the significant length of the corresponding series. Typically, these studies do not specify the temporal aggregation, ta, of the rainfall data on which maxima rely, although it is well known that the use of rainfall data with coarse ta can lead to significant underestimates of Hd. The effect of ta on the estimation of trends in annual maximum depths with d = 24 h, Hd=24 h, over the last 100 years is examined. We have used a published series of Hd=24 h derived by long-term historical rainfall observations with various temporal aggregations, due to the progress of recording systems through time, at 39 representative meteorological stations located in an inland region of Central Italy. Then, by using a recently developed mathematical relation between average underestimation error and the ratio ta/d, each Hd=24 h value has been corrected. Successively, commonly used climatic trend tests based on different approaches, including least-squares linear trend analysis, Mann–Kendall, and Sen’s method, have been applied to the “uncorrected” and “corrected” series. The results show that the underestimation of Hd=24 h values with coarse ta plays a significant role in the analysis of the effects of climatic change on extreme rainfalls. Specifically, the correction of the Hd=24 h values can change the sign of the trend from positive to negative. Furthermore, it has been observed that the innovative Sen’s method (based on a graphical approach) is less sensitive to corrections of the Hd values than the least-squares linear trend and the Mann–Kendall method. In any case, the analysis of Hd series containing potentially underestimated values, especially when d = 24 h, can lead to misleading results. Therefore, before conducting any trend analysis, Hd values determined from rainfall data characterized by coarse temporal resolution should always be corrected.

Effect of Grape Over-Ripening and Its Skin Presence on White Wine Alcoholic Fermentation in a Warm Climate Zone

The current trend of rising temperatures and sun irradiation associated to climate change is pushing traditional grape-producing areas with a warm climate towards a very accelerated ripening, leading to earlier harvesting dates and grape must with an unbalanced composition. However, this climatic trend could be exploited to produce other types of wine. In this sense, the increase in temperature could be used to produce wines with overripe grapes. In this regard, the aim of this research work is to evaluate the influence of different degrees and techniques of grape over-ripening to produce wines with the presence or absence of its skins during alcoholic fermentation. To this end, a physicochemical characterization of grape musts and wines obtained from overripe grapes and the monitoring of their fermentation has been performed. Over-ripening grapes by sun-drying has been established as a viable technique viability, producing musts and wines with unique physicochemical and sensory characteristics. In view of the above, it is considered that the production of wines from overripe grapes and in the presence or absence of grape skins is a viable approach to make new white wines taking advantage of the conditions imposed by climate change in a warm climate zone and meet the trends and expectations of current wine consumers.

A More Comprehensive Climate Vulnerability Assessment Framework for Fisheries Social-Ecological Systems

Understanding and anticipating the effects of climate change on fisheries social-ecological systems (FSESs) is central to proactive fisheries management in a changing global climate. With fisheries management increasingly striving to consider interactions and feedbacks among people, targeted species, and the broader ecological and human communities, fisheries managers and participants need tools to help them assess these complex systems. We developed a new climate vulnerability assessment framework for analyzing the impacts of a climate-induced trend or event on a FSES. The framework divides the FSES into four interrelated and interacting domains: Ecological Community, Fished Species, Fishery, and Human Community. The framework provides a systematic approach to account for indirect as well as direct effects, links among subsystems, and multiple climate change-induced stressors. We demonstrate the framework’s utility by applying it to three case studies: the effects of a marine heatwave on the Dungeness crab FSES, the effects of a marine heatwave on the red sea urchin FSES, and the effects of long-term climate trends on North Pacific albacore. We found that the effects of a climatic trend or event on a FSES are often indirect and can trigger diverse and important feedbacks. These examples also showed that the climatic trend or event may cause changes in the temporal and spatial distribution of fishing effort and fished species that have a more significant impact on the FSES than changes to species abundance per se. Unlike other climate vulnerability assessment frameworks and applications, ours is designed to enable consideration of the range of feedbacks within and among both the ecological and human communities. As such, it is a valuable tool to guide the holistic examination and assessment of potential impacts to FSESs.

How to correctly apply Gaussian statistics in a non-stationary climate?

Time series with a significant trend, as is now being the case for the temperature in the course of climate change, need a careful approach for statistical evaluations. Climatological means and moments are usually taken from past data which means that the statistics does not fit to actual data anymore. Therefore, we need to determine the long-term trend before comparing actual data with the actual climate. This is not an easy task, because the determination of the signal—a climatic trend—is influenced by the random scatter of observed data. Different filter methods are tested upon their quality to obtain realistic smoothed trends of observed time series. A new method is proposed, which is based on a variational principle. It outperforms other conventional methods of smoothing, especially if periodic time series are processed. This new methodology is used to test, how extreme the temperature of 2018 in Vienna actually was. It is shown that the new annual temperature record of 2018 is not too extreme, if we consider the positive trend of the last decades. Also, the daily mean temperatures of 2018 are not found to be really extreme according to the present climate. The real extreme of the temperature record of Vienna—and many other places around the world—is the strongly increased positive temperature trend over the last years.

Revised chronostratigraphy and palaeoenvironmental record of loess-palaeosol sequences in the Azov Sea region of Russia since the late Pleistocene

<p>Loess-palaeosol sequences are the most intensively studied terrestrial archives used for the reconstruction of late Pleistocene environmental and climatic changes in the Sea of Azov region, southwest Russia. Here we present a revised luminescence-based chronostratigraphy and a multi-proxy record of late Pleistocene environmental dynamics of the most complete and representative loess-palaeosol sequences (Beglitsa and Chumbur-Kosa sections) from the Azov Sea region. We propose a new chronostratigraphy following the Chinese and Danubean loess stratigraphy models that refines the subdivision of the last interglacial palaeosol (S1) in two Azov Sea sites, resolves the uncertainty of the stratigraphic position of the weakly developed paleosol (L1SSm) in Beglitsa section, and allows direct correlation of the Azov Sea sections with those in the Danube Basin and the Chinese Loess Plateau. More importantly, it adds important data to better constrain local and regional chronostratigraphic correlations, and facilitates the interpretation of climatic connections and possible forcing mechanisms responsible for the climatic trend among these regions. In addition, a general succession of environmental dynamics is reconstructed from these two vital sections, which is broadly consistent with other loess records in the Dnieper Lowland and Lower Danube Basin, demonstrating similar climatic trends in these regions at glacial-interglacial time scales. However, differences in details were also identified, especially for palaeosols developed during the last interglacial period, and the cause of these dissimilarities between loess records appears complex.</p><p>Furthermore, our results have important implications for the chronostratigraphic representativeness of Beglitsa as a key loess section and the reconstruction of the temporal and spatial evolution of late Pleistocene palaeoclimate in the Sea of Azov region.</p><p> </p>

Climate change trends in the forest-meadow zone of the Middle Urals and their impact on technological approaches to corn cultivation

The results of the analysis of long-term trends in changes in individual climatic characteristics and variations in weather conditions of the growing season in the forest-meadow zone of the Middle Urals for the period from 1958 to 2020 are presented, their influence on the choice of hybrids and some elements of corn cultivation technology are estimated. As a result of calculating the linear trend, a statistically proven trend has been established to increase the sum of active temperatures above 10 °C for May – September. At the same time, random fluctuations of the analyzed parameters over the years have a direct impact on corn development and productivity, and the limiting factor is the lower limit of these fluctuations, the values of which increase throughout the analyzed period. Nevertheless, the variation over the years remains strong, and the lower limit of these fluctuations does not reach the minimum level for the stable maturation of early-maturing corn hybrids. Therefore, for the conditions of the Middle Urals, the previous recommendations concerning the selection of corn hybrids for early maturity, cold resistance and drought resistance remain relevant. At the same time, the revealed climatic trend allows to predict an increase in the probability of obtaining feed with a high content of exchange energy, which characterizes it as positive one.