Effectiveness of forest management strategies to mitigate effects of global change in south-central Siberia

We investigated questions about the ability of broad silvicultural strategies to achieve multiple objectives (reduce disturbance losses, maintain the abundance of preferred species, mitigate fragmentation and loss of age-class diversity, and sequester aboveground carbon) under future climate conditions in Siberia. We conducted a factorial experiment using the LANDIS-II landscape disturbance and succession model. Treatments included varying the size and amount of areas cut and the cutting method (selective or clearcut). Simultaneously, the model simulated natural disturbances (fire, wind, insect outbreaks) and forest succession under projected future climate conditions as predicted by an ensemble of global circulation models. The cutting method and cutting rate treatments generally had a large effect on species and age-class composition, residual living biomass, and susceptibility to disturbance, whereas cutblock size had no effect. Cutblock size affected only measures of fragmentation, but cutting method and cutting rate often had an even greater effect. Based on the results, we simulated a “recommended” strategy and compared it with the current forest management practice. The recommended strategy resulted in greater forest biomass, increased abundance of favored species, and reduced fragmentation, but it did not significantly reduce losses by disturbance. No single strategy appears able to achieve all possible forest management objectives.

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Projecting future vegetation change for northeast China using CMIP6

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-9639 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Wei Yuan ◽

Shuang-ye Wu ◽

Shugui Hou

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Vegetation Change ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Vegetation Changes ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

<p>This study aims to establish future vegetation changes in the east and central of northern China (ECNC), an ecologically sensitive region in the transition zonal from humid monsoonal to arid continental climate. The region has experienced significant greening in the past several decades. However, few studies exist on how vegetation will change with future climate change, and great uncertainties exist due to complex, and often spatially non-stationary, relationships between vegetation and climate. In this study, we first used historical NDVI and climate data to model this spatially variable relationship with Geographically Weighted Logit Regression. We found that temperature and precipitation could explain, on average, 43% of NDVI variance, and they could be used to&#160;model NDVI fairly well. We then establish future climate change using the output of 11 CMIP6 models for the medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for the mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100). The results show that for this region, both temperature and precipitation will increase under both scenarios. By late-century under SSP585, precipitation is projected to increase by 25.12% and temperature is projected to increase 5.87<sup>o</sup>C in ECNC. Finally, we used future climate conditions as input for the regression models to project future vegetation (indicated by NDVI). We found that NDVI will increase under climate change. By mid-century, the average NDVI in ECNC will increase by 0.024 and 0.021 under SSP245 and SSP585. By late-century, it will increase by 0.016 and 0.006 under SSP245 and SSP585&#160;respectively. Although NDVI is projected to increase, the magnitude of increase is likely to diminish with higher emission scenarios, possibly due to the benefit of precipitation increase being gradually encroached by the detrimental effects of temperature increase. Moreover, despite the overall NDVI increase, the area likely to suffer vegetation degradation will also expands, particularly in the western part of ECNC. With higher emissions and later into the century, region with low NDVI is likely to shift and/or expand north-forward. Our results could provide important information on possible&#160;vegetation changes, which could help to develop effective management strategies to ensure ecological and economic sustainability&#160;in the future.</p>

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Assessment of rice yield gap under a changing climate in India

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2020.086 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Subhankar Debnath ◽

Ashok Mishra ◽

D. R. Mailapalli ◽

N. S. Raghuwanshi ◽

V. Sridhar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Explicit Knowledge ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Temporal Analysis ◽

Future Climate ◽

Historical Period ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Yield Gap ◽

Climate Conditions

Abstract Climate change evokes future food security concerns and needs for sustainable intensification of agriculture. The explicit knowledge about crop yield gap at country level may help in identifying management strategies for sustainable agricultural production to meet future food demand. In this study, we assessed the rice yield gap under projected climate change scenario in India at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution by using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. The simulated spatial yield results show that mean actual yield under rainfed conditions (Ya) will reduce from 2.13 t/ha in historical period 1981–2005 to 1.67 t/ha during the 2030s (2016–2040) and 2040s (2026–2050), respectively, under the RCP 8.5 scenario. On the other hand, mean rainfed yield gap shows no change (≈1.49 t/ha) in the future. Temporal analysis of yield indicates that Ya is expected to decrease in the considerably large portion of the study area (30–60%) under expected future climate conditions. As a result, yield gap is expected to either stagnate or increase in 50.6 and 48.7% of the study area during the two future periods, respectively. The research outcome indicates the need for identifying plausible best management strategies to reduce the yield gap under expected future climate conditions for sustainable rice production in India.

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Consequences of various landscape-scale ecosystem management strategies and fire cycles on age-class structure and harvest in boreal forests

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/x03-143 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 34 (2) ◽

pp. 310-322 ◽

Cited By ~ 51

Author(s):

Andrew Fall ◽

Marie-Josée Fortin ◽

Daniel D Kneeshaw ◽

Stephen H Yamasaki ◽

Christian Messier ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Ecosystem Management ◽

Scale Effects ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Landscape Scale ◽

Stand Age ◽

Class Structure ◽

Fire Cycle ◽

Class Distribution ◽

Age Class

At the landscape scale, one of the key indicators of sustainable forest management is the age-class distribution of stands, since it provides a coarse synopsis of habitat potential, structural complexity, and stand volume, and it is directly modified by timber extraction and wildfire. To explore the consequences of several landscape-scale boreal forest management strategies on age-class structure in the Mauricie region of Quebec, we used spatially explicit simulation modelling. Our study investigated three different harvesting strategies (the one currently practiced and two different strategies to maintain late seral stands) and interactions between fire and harvesting on stand age-class distribution. We found that the legacy of initial forested age structure and its spatial configuration can pose short- (<50 years) to medium-term (150300 years) challenges to balancing wood supply and ecological objectives. Also, ongoing disturbance by fire, even at relatively long cycles in relation to historic levels, can further constrain the achievement of both timber and biodiversity goals. For example, when fire was combined with management, harvest shortfalls occurred in all scenarios with a fire cycle of 100 years and most scenarios with a fire cycle of 150 years. Even a fire cycle of 500 years led to a reduction in older forest when its maintenance was not a primary constraint. Our results highlight the need to consider the broad-scale effects of natural disturbance when developing ecosystem management policies and the importance of prioritizing objectives when planning for multiple resource use.

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A landscape-scale assessment of the response of birds to land cover, climate, and forest management

10.32469/10355/50151 ◽

2015 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Jaymi J. LeBrun

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Land Cover ◽

Forest Cover ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Canopy Cover ◽

Northern Bobwhite ◽

Future Climate ◽

Management Scenarios ◽

Bird Abundance

Climate change will likely increase temperatures across the globe as well as alter regional climates. These climate shifts have the potential to substantially change vegetation and reshape both plant and animal distributions. To mitigate these potential changes, scientists have suggested management strategies focused on forest resilience, response, and carbon sequestration. The goal of this research was to determine the current impacts of land cover and regional climate on birds in the Midwest, and use these current relationships to assess the direct and indirect effects of future climate and management on avian abundance in Missouri. I coupled the Bayesian model with a landscape simulation model (LANDIS PRO) to predict bird abundance 100 years into the future for a range of climate and forest management scenarios. Forest and canopy cover were the primary drivers of current bird abundance, however, temperature was influential for early successional species. In addition, the most significant climate related effect was for the northern bobwhite with higher abundances under warmer winters. For most birds, management had a greater impact on future abundance than climate, however, species currently exhibiting direct effects of climate showed compounded effects associated with management. Even though we expect land cover to change very little due to climate, we did see one bird (i.e., northern bobwhite) affect by climate-induced changes to vegetation. Managing forest cover will be key for mitigating the effects of future climate for birds.

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Zwischenevaluation des Wald-Wild-Management-Instruments (WWMI) im Pilotprogramm effor2 «Wald und Wild» | Preliminary evaluation of the Game-Forest-Management-Tool (GFMT) in the effor2 pilot programme «Game and Forest»

Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen ◽

10.3188/szf.2003.0305 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 154 (8) ◽

pp. 305-313 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Roman Eyholzer ◽

Martin Baumann ◽

Rolf Manser

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Management Practice ◽

Management Tool ◽

Preliminary Evaluation ◽

Optimal Contract ◽

Technical Tool ◽

Entire Study ◽

Pilot Programme ◽

Complex Problems ◽

Entire Study Area

Faced with the challenging task of balancing forest interests and wildlife, the Swiss Forest Agency initiated the pilot programme«Game and Forest», which is committed to a philosophy of goal-oriented management practice and a redesign of forestry subsidizing. Within this programme the diverse goals of forestry and hunting have been amalgamated to a superimposed goal and set out in a corresponding contract. The Game-Forest-Management-Tool (GFMT) has been divised to simulate the effect of various strategies to deal with the complex problems of forest-wildlife. Optimal contract-fulfilling procedures can be simulated on a PC using this technical tool. The efficiency of the measures suggested by simulations that were carried out are being tested in a study area within the pilot programme, «Game and Forest». Half way through this trial, after two years, we can say that there has been no significant increase of non-browsed areas. In 2004, after the collection of data for the entire study area, we will be able to tell whether applying this computer simulated strategy truly leads to an augmentation of non-browsed area and a decrease in bark-peeled forests in the pilot area.

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Estimation of wind storm impacts overWestern Germany under future climate conditions using a statisticalâ€“dynamical downscaling approach

Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography ◽

10.3402/tellusa.v62i2.15670 ◽

2010 ◽

Author(s):

Joaquim G. Pinto ◽

Christian P. Neuhaus ◽

Gregor C. Leckebusch ◽

Mark Reyers ◽

Michael Kerschgens

Keyword(s):

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Conditions

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Towards sustainable forest management strategies with MOEAs

Proceedings of the 2020 Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference ◽

10.1145/3377930.3389837 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Philipp Back ◽

Antti Suominen ◽

Pekka Malo ◽

Olli Tahvonen ◽

Julian Blank ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Forest Management ◽

Sustainable Forest Management ◽

Management Strategies

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Disentangling the Legacies of Climate and Management on Tree Growth

Ecosystems ◽

10.1007/s10021-021-00650-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Laura Marqués ◽

Drew M. P. Peltier ◽

J. Julio Camarero ◽

Miguel A. Zavala ◽

Jaime Madrigal-González ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Management ◽

Tree Growth ◽

European Beech ◽

Ring Formation ◽

Silver Fir ◽

Past Climate ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Ecological Memory ◽

Historical Forest

AbstractLegacies of past climate conditions and historical management govern forest productivity and tree growth. Understanding how these processes interact and the timescales over which they influence tree growth is critical to assess forest vulnerability to climate change. Yet, few studies address this issue, likely because integrated long-term records of both growth and forest management are uncommon. We applied the stochastic antecedent modelling (SAM) framework to annual tree-ring widths from mixed forests to recover the ecological memory of tree growth. We quantified the effects of antecedent temperature and precipitation up to 4 years preceding the year of ring formation and integrated management effects with records of harvesting intensity from historical forest management archives. The SAM approach uncovered important time periods most influential to growth, typically the warmer and drier months or seasons, but variation among species and sites emerged. Silver fir responded primarily to past climate conditions (25–50 months prior to the year of ring formation), while European beech and Scots pine responded mostly to climate conditions during the year of ring formation and the previous year, although these responses varied among sites. Past management and climate interacted in such a way that harvesting promoted growth in young silver fir under wet and warm conditions and in old European beech under drier and cooler conditions. Our study shows that the ecological memory associated with climate legacies and historical forest management is species-specific and context-dependent, suggesting that both aspects are needed to properly evaluate forest functioning under climate change.

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