Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan

This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe’s (LM), Willmott’s index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Highlighting Complex Long-Term Succession Pathways in Mixed Forests of the Pacific Northwest: A Markov Chain Modelling Approach

Forest succession is an ecological phenomenon that can span centuries. Although the concept of succession was originally formulated as a deterministic sequence of different plant communities by F. Clements more than a century ago, nowadays it is recognized that stochastic events and disturbances play a pivotal role in forest succession. In spite of that, forest maps and management plans around the world are developed and focused on a unique “climax” community, likely due to the difficulty of quantifying alternative succession pathways. In this research, we explored the possibility of developing a Markov Chain model to study multiple pathway succession scenarios in mixed forests of western red cedar, hemlock and Pacific silver fir on northern Vancouver Island (western Canada). We created a transition matrix using the probabilities of change between alternative ecological stages as well as red cedar regeneration. Each ecological state was defined by the dominant tree species and ages. Our results indicate that, compared to the traditional Clementsian, deterministic one-pathway succession model, which is unable to replicate current stand distribution of these forests in the region, a three-pathway stochastic succession model, calibrated by a panel of experts, can mimic the observed landscape distribution among different stand types before commercial logging started in the region. We conclude that, while knowing the difficulty of parameterizing this type of models, their use is needed to recognize that for a given site, there may be multiple “climax” communities and hence forest management should account for them.

Potential Link between Ectomycorrhizal Community Composition and Host Tree Phenology

The timing of leaf phenology tends to be crucial in controlling ecosystem processes such as the acquisition of carbon and water loss as well as in controlling tree nutrient cycling. To date, tree phenology has mostly been associated with environmental control (e.g., temperature and photoperiod) in a relationship with inheritance, while it has rarely been linked with ectomycorrhizal community compositional changes through the host tree’s phenological stages. Seasonal variations of fungal communities have been widely studied, but little is known about mycorrhiza community composition changes along phenological stages. Therefore, we analyzed ectomycorrhizal communities associated with silver fir and their compositional changes during the transition between phenological stages. The phenological stages of each individual tree and time of bud break were monitored weekly for two years and, at the same time, ectomycorrhiza was harvested from selected silver fir trees. In total, 60 soil cores were analyzed for differences in the ectomycorrhizal community between phenological stages using Sanger sequencing of individual ectomycorrhizal morphotypes. A significant difference in beta diversity for an overall ectomycorrhizal community was confirmed between analyzed time periods for both sampled years. Species-specific reactions to transitions between phenological stages were confirmed for 18 different ectomycorrhizal taxa, where a positive correlation of Russula ochroleuca, Russula illota, Tomentella sublilacina, and Tylospora fibrillosa was observed with the phenological stage of bud burst.

First Record of the Saproxylic Beetle Cossonus parallelepipedus (Coleoptera, Curculionidae) in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Balkan Peninsula is considered to be a hotspot of beetle biodiversity. Registering occurrence of saproxylic beetles is an important first step for expanding the general knowledge about saproxylic beetles as ecologically important insect species. Cossonus parallelepipedus is a European saproxylic species distributed from Iberian Peninsula in the west to Russia in the east, and from the Mediterranean in the south to Fennoscandia in the north. The first, and until now the only find of this species for the Balkan Peninsula is from Croatia. We report the first find of C. parallelepipedus in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). In April 2020, larvae, pupae and imagoes were collected, in the central part of BiH, north of Sarajevo, on Zvijezda Mt. near Vareš from decaying moist wood in the lower part of a tree trunk of European silver fir, Abies alba. We expect that this species has a wider presence, especially in mountain areas in the central part of the country. Due to the similar environment conditions for other two European Cossonus species ( C. cylindrus and C. linearis) their presence is also possible.

Efficacy of Trans-geographic Observational Network Design for Revelation of Growth Pattern in Mountain Forests Across Europe

Understanding tree and stand growth dynamics in the frame of climate change calls for large-scale analyses. For analysing growth patterns in mountain forests across Europe, the CLIMO consortium compiled a network of observational plots across European mountain regions. Here, we describe the design and efficacy of this network of plots in monospecific European beech and mixed-species stands of Norway spruce, European beech, and silver fir.First, we sketch the state of the art of existing monitoring and observational approaches for assessing the growth of mountain forests. Second, we introduce the design, measurement protocols, as well as site and stand characteristics, and we stress the innovation of the newly compiled network. Third, we give an overview of the growth and yield data at stand and tree level, sketch the growth characteristics along elevation gradients, and introduce the methods of statistical evaluation. Fourth, we report additional measurements of soil, genetic resources, and climate smartness indicators and criteria, which were available for statistical evaluation and testing hypotheses. Fifth, we present the ESFONET (European Smart Forest Network) approach of data and knowledge dissemination. The discussion is focussed on the novelty and relevance of the database, its potential for monitoring, understanding and management of mountain forests toward climate smartness, and the requirements for future assessments and inventories.In this chapter, we describe the design and efficacy of this network of plots in monospecific European beech and mixed-species stands of Norway spruce, European beech, and silver fir. We present how to acquire and evaluate data from individual trees and the whole stand to quantify and understand the growth of mountain forests in Europe under climate change. It will provide concepts, models, and practical hints for analogous trans-geographic projects that may be based on the existing and newly recorded data on forests.

Biotic factors damaging forest stands in Gornata Koria and Chuprene Reserves in Western Balkan Range, Bulgaria

Assessment and monitoring of health status in deteriorated forest stands in Gornata Koria and Chuprene Reserves in Western Balkan Range (Bulgaria) were conducted in 2017. An integrated approach (based on remote sensing technologies and terrestrial validation) was applied. A series of subsequent terrain observations were carried out in both protected areas mainly in dead or in poor health status stands. As a result, sixteen insect species were identified in Gornata Koria and nine pests in Chuprene Reserves. The predominant number of pests included bark beetles and weevils (Curculionidae), longhorn beetles (Cerambycidae), etc. Attacks caused by the European bark beetle (Ips typographus) formed the main disturbance in the Norway spruce forests in both reserves. Ten parasitic and ten saprophytic fungi were identified in the stands of the Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). Among the parasitic fungi, six species were identified as destructive (Armillaria sp., Heterobasidion annosum, Fomitopsis pinicola, Fomes fomentarius, Ramaria flava and Pholiota squarrosa).

EFFECT OF PRIMING WITH SILVER FIR AND OREGANO ESSENTIAL OILS ON SEED GERMINATION AND VIGOUR OF SILENE SENDTNERI

UDK: 582.661.51:631.53.027]:547.913 In order to investigate the effects of seed priming with silver fir and oregano essential oils on certain important seedling characteristic and seed vigour of interesting endemic and horticultural species Silene sendtneri, an experiment was conducted based on randomized completely design with three replications. Traits such as germination rate, water content, dry weight, vigour index and photosynthetic pigments were analysed. Results revealed that the seedlings obtained with priming seeds showed increased growth, water content, vigour and photosynthetic pigment contents but decreased germination rate and dry weight compared with that obtained with non-primed seeds. Analysis of seed priming effects had demonstrated even germination rate is smaller the seedling vigour is slightly higher especially with all oregano oil treatments. We suggest that oregano oil has a potential as a priming agent for improvement of seedling synchrony, although at lower rate of germination.

Tree Species Classification in a Temperate Mixed Mountain Forest Landscape Using Random Forest and Multiple Datasets

For monitoring protected forest landscapes over time it is essential to follow changes in tree species composition and forest dynamics. Data driven remote sensing methods provide valuable options if terrestrial approaches for forest inventories and monitoring activities cannot be applied efficiently due to restrictions or the size of the study area. We demonstrate how species can be detected at a single tree level utilizing a Random Forest (RF) model using the Black Forest National Park as an example of a Central European forest landscape with complex relief. The classes were European silver fir (Abies alba, AA), Norway spruce (Picea abies, PA), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris, PS), European larch (Larix decidua including Larix kampferii, LD), Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii, PM), deciduous broadleaved species (DB) and standing dead trees (snags, WD). Based on a multi-temporal (leaf-on and leaf-off phenophase) and multi-spectral mosaic (R-G-B-NIR) with 10 cm spatial resolution, digital elevation models (DTM, DSM, CHM) with 40 cm spatial resolution and a LiDAR dataset with 25 pulses per m2, 126 variables were derived and used to train the RF algorithm with 1130 individual trees. The main objective was to determine a subset of meaningful variables for the RF model classification on four heterogeneous test sites. Using feature selection techniques, mainly passive optical variables from the leaf-off phenophase were considered due to their ability to differentiate between conifers and the two broader classes. An examination of the two phenological phases (using the difference of the respective NDVIs) is important to clearly distinguish deciduous trees from other classes including snags (WD). We also found that the variables of the first derivation of NIR and the tree metrics play a crucial role in discriminating PA und PS. With this unique set of variables some classes can be differentiated more reliably, especially LD and DB but also AA, PA and WD, whereas difficulties exist in identifying PM and PS. Overall, the non-parametric object-based approach has proved to be highly suitable for accurately detecting (OA: 89.5%) of the analyzed classes. Finally, the successful classification of complex 265 km2 study area substantiates our findings.

Morphological variability of Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) cones in the context of seed extraction

In the paper generating curves given by fourth-degree polynomials were used to model the shape of Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) cones from the Polish Forest Districts of Kołaczyce (one batch) and Opole (two batches), and to calculate the surface area and volume of individual cones. However, it was not possible to construct generalized equations for the surface area and volume of Douglas fir cones due to the high variability of empirical coefficients. The surface area and volume of the cones were also calculated from their length and diameter based on formulas for a cylinder and a barrel corrected by constants k1 and k2. The mean surface area of closed Douglas fir cones determined for the first, second, and third batch using the generating function was 4,348.4 mm2, 3,857.0 mm2, and 2,844.7 mm2, and the volume was 27,212.4 mm3, 21,012.9 mm3, and 12,844.4 mm3, respectively. The corresponding values calculated from the geometric formulas for solids were 4,332.0 mm2, 3,838.0 mm2, and 2,862.9 mm2 for the surface area and 27,366.0 mm3, 20,648.9 mm3, and 13,375.3 mm3 for the volume. The evaporation area of open cones was found to be five times greater than that of closed cones, with the difference being statistically significant. The outer and inner surfaces of scales taken from the middle segment of Douglas fir cones were photographed using a Quanta 200 scanning microscope (FEIC). The characteristic elements of scale morphology were evaluated by means of MultiScan Base software package. The outer and inner surfaces of Douglas fir scales were found to differ in some important ways, similarly as it has been reported in the literature for the Scots pine, silver fir, European larch, and black alder. The outer surface of scales is formed by thick-walled cells with marked protrusions, while the inner surface reveals cells with thin, frayed walls in the region adjacent to the seeds and wings. Knowledge of the geometry of Douglas fir cones and the morphology of their scales may be helpful in optimizing seed extraction parameters for those cones. Key words: seed extraction, model, shape curve, surface area, volume, scanning electron microscope