A model of spread and intensification of dwarf mistletoe infection in young western hemlock stands
The following relationships were quantified in a mathematical computer model to predict spread and intensification of dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobiumtsugense (Rosendahl) G. N. Jones) infection, originating from residual trees, in regeneration of western hemlock (Tsugaheterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.): distribution of dwarf mistletoe infections in residual source trees, dwarf mistletoe seed production, escape from crown and dispersal, interception of seeds by neighboring trees, distribution of seeds within crowns, development of dwarf mistletoe infections, mortality of plants, and tree crown growth. The model included options for thinning or sanitation by removal of infected residual or regeneration trees. Predictions by the model for a 10-year period did not differ significantly (p = 0.05) from results of a field plot with respect to average number of infections per tree, percentage of infections at 1-m distances from the residual tree, and percentage of infections in each quadrant centered on residual source tree. Predictions of the effects of stocking density and sanitation or thinning on infection agreed with results obtained from experiments with other tree species.