DOWNSCALING GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUTS TO STUDY THE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE PART II: SCENARIO SIMULATION AND HYDROLOGIC MODELING

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

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Global Climate Model projected changes in 10 m wind speed and direction due to anthropogenic climate change

Atmospheric Science Letters ◽

10.1002/asl.341 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 325-333 ◽

Cited By ~ 78

Author(s):

Kathleen L. McInnes ◽

Timothy A. Erwin ◽

Janice M. Bathols

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Wind Speed ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽

Projected Changes

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Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-6-1429-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 6 (5) ◽

pp. 1429-1445 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

M. Trail ◽

A. P. Tsimpidi ◽

P. Liu ◽

K. Tsigaridis ◽

Y. Hu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Quality ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Southeastern Us ◽

The Us ◽

Ozone Levels

Abstract. Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

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Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany"

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-16-1617-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 16 (7) ◽

pp. 1617-1622 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Fred Fokko Hattermann ◽

Shaochun Huang ◽

Olaf Burghoff ◽

Peter Hoffmann ◽

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Considerable Increase ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Impact Modelling ◽

Flood Damages

Abstract. In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

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