REAL EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOUR UNDER HONG KONG'S LINKED EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

2002 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
pp. 55-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZHICHAO ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Rate Behaviour

In a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate model, this study investigates the movements of the real exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar under the currency board arrangement from 1984 to 1998. Cointegration analysis based on Johansen approach is applied to derive the equilibrium real exchange rate in behavioural sense for the Hong Kong dollar. Evidence shows that during the period under investigation, the Hong Kong dollar was initially undervalued when the currency board arrangement was installed. It moved in closer line with the equilibrium rate after 1985 and generally remained moderately undervalued until 1993. Then the currency became overvalued following the upsurge of domestic demand and lingered into 1995 before an adjustment took place latter that year. But except for a few quarters, the overvaluation was not substantial and chronic. On the whole, the Hong Kong dollar seemed to have performed well in the period under examination. In most cases, the currency was actually undervalued. When the Asian financial crisis broke out, the currency was in effect already in a process of adjustment, depreciating form an overvalued level.

scholarly journals On the Maintenance Costs and Exit Costs of the Peg in Hong Kong

2005 ◽  
Vol 08 (03) ◽  
pp. 377-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul S. L. Yip
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Policy Maker ◽  
Band System ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Maintenance Costs ◽  
Exit Costs ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Board System

This paper attempts to pioneer a discussion on the exit and maintenance costs of the Currency Board System (CBS) in Hong Kong, and hopes to invite more debate on the issue. It suggests that the exit costs will depend on the timing of an exit, whether there are supplementary packages to mitigate the exit costs, and the choice of an alternative exchange rate system. In particular, it suggests that the monitoring band system favored by Williamson (2000) could help to reduce the exit costs. In addition, the paper points out that there are ways to reduce both the exit and maintenance costs. It then proposes a reform that could benefit the economy regardless of whether the policy maker eventually chooses to continue with or abandon the peg. The study is not only crucial to Hong Kong, but also important to other economies with a CBS as well as to the debate on the choice of exchange rate system.

The real equilibrium exchange rate in a commodity­exporting economy: the experience of Azerbaijan

2021 ◽  
pp. 25-38
Author(s):  
Vusal Gasimli ◽  
Vusala Jafarova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Relative Productivity

The case of Azerbaijan serves to study the adequacy of exchange-rate policy in a resource-rich economy. This paper analyses the behavior of Azerbaijan’s external accounts over the past twenty years. Declining oil prices made an existing exchange-rate peg unsustainable and led to a large devaluation in 2015. Since then, the current account balance has improved, but by less than expected. We use the EBA-Lite method to derive regression-based estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate, and relate misalignments to measures of “policy gaps”. Our findings suggest that only a few years after the devaluation, Azerbaijan’s currency has once more become overvalued. Moreover, the equilibrium real exchange rate is volatile and hardly compatible with a long-run exchange rate peg. Exchange rate policy should try to accommodate shifts in the fundamental determinants such as relative productivity and real oil prices.

Properties of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in the Treasury model

1999 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 96-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith B. Church
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate

This article calculates the equilibrium real exchange rate for the UK economy. The long-run trade and supply side relationships from HM Treasury's model are used to estimate the level of the real exchange rate consistent with the UK economy growing at its ‘natural’ rate while achieving a sustainable current account position. The model shows that the real exchange rate associated with macroeconomic equilibrium lies well below the actual rate for most of the 1990s. This result has important implications for possible UK participation in the single European currency as, once the nominal exchange rate is fixed, overvaluation can only be corrected by holding UK inflation lower than that elsewhere. Achieving this may be costly in terms of jobs and output.

scholarly journals A New Method of Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 171
Author(s):  
Renhong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
New Method ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate

How to assess the misalignments of real exchange rate in developing countries has been a difficult and unresolved issue. Over the decades, researchers have not found desirable methods to estimate the “Equilibrium Exchange Rate”. The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) approach has limitations, and the fixed or managed floating exchange rate regimes in developing countries make the estimating more difficult. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the limitations of the Macroeconomic Balance approach and the existing PPP approach for estimating equilibrium exchange rate in developing countries, and introduce a new method–the Adjusted PPP method to assess exchange rate in developing countries. The new method includes the Human Development Index (HDI) to adjust the traditional PPP estimates. By introducing the adjustments of HDI, the big quality differences in non-tradable goods and services between developed and developing countries are adjusted for the exchange rate estimates. Also, as a case study, the paper estimated the exchange rate in China of 1991-2013.

scholarly journals Accession to the Eurozone as Lithuania’s exit strategy from the currency board system

Equilibrium ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Dorota Żuchowska
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
Convergence Criteria ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Board System

In the years 2004-2014 the Lithuania’s exchange rate policy was based on a rigid currency board system. After a period of uncontested success in the fight against inflation in the first decade of the transition and economic growth, entering the ERM II in 2004 and efforts to adopt the euro were treated as an optimal exit strategy from the currency board system. However, the consequences of this exchange rate system in the following years (until 2014) prevented Lithuania from meeting the economic convergence criteria. The starting point for the research is based on the theoretical analysis of literature studying benefits and risks associated with the use of the currency board system by the monetary authorities. The empirical analysis refers to the case of Lithuania and covers the years 2004-2014. The purpose of this analysis is to look at the effects of the use of the currency board system from the perspective of the convergence criteria of monetary nature and the extent of their implementation in the absence of opportunities for autonomous monetary policy.

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