Frontiers of Economics in China
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1673-3568, 1673-3444

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 697-713
Author(s):  
Lirong Liu ◽  
◽  
Steven Shwiff ◽  
Stephanie Shwiff ◽  
Maryfrances Miller ◽  
...  

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on the US and Texas economy using a computable general equilibrium model, REMI PI+. We consider three scenarios based on economic forecasts from various sources, including the University of Michigan’s RSQE (Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics), IMF, and the Wi orld Bank. We report a GDP loss of $106 million (a 6% decline) with 1.2 million jobs lost (6.6%) in Texas in 2020. At the national level, GDP loss is $996 billion (a 5% decline) with 11.5 million jobs lost (5.5%) in the same year. By 2026, the aggregate total GDP loss in Texas ranges from $378 to $629 million. The estimated unemployment rate in Texas in 2021 ranges from 5% to 7.7%, depending on modeling assumptions. The granularity of the CGE results allow examination of the most and least impacted industries. Health Care and Social Assistance, Construction, and Accommodation and Food Services incur the most job loss while State and Local Government and Farm will likely see an increase in jobs for 2020. These insights separate our work from most current impact studies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 628-665
Author(s):  
Jian Zhou ◽  
◽  
Xiaohui Lu ◽  
Liang Ye ◽  
Yu Shao ◽  
...  

This study evaluates COVID-19 prevention and control policies. Based on the simulation, we compare the effects of two major policies: contact restriction and active treatment. Through regression and cluster analysis, we classified 169 countries and regions in the world into 10 groups, among which five groups accounted for the major proportion: the ones with the labels “CHN (China) mode,” “SE (South Europe) mode,” “ENE-SSA (East & North Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa) mode,” “US (United States) mode,” and “DEU (Germany) mode”). Differences in the effects of the prevention and control of COVID-19 in typical countries in each mode are comprehensively investigated. The conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows: First, contact restriction outperforms active treatment in curbing the spread of COVID-19. Second, “CHN mode” ranks the highest level of epidemic control and emphasizes epidemic prevention and control more than economic stimulus, which is the opposite of the “US mode”. Regression analysis reveals that the differences in epidemics worldwide are caused by policy differences among modes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 607-627
Author(s):  
Fengman Dou ◽  
◽  
Mengna Luan ◽  
Zhigang Tao ◽  
Hongjie Yuan ◽  
...  

While the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic directly caused millions of hospitalizations and deaths, its indirect impacts on people with other illnesses can be of equal importance. Using discharge records in a major Chinese megacity where there was a limited number of COVID-19 cases, we find significant declines in the number of hospital admissions for a whole spectrum of disease categories during the pandemic. The declines were larger in COVID-19 designated hospitals and top-grade hospitals. In-hospital mortality and length of stay (LOS) were higher for stroke, ischaemic heart diseases, and malignant neoplasms, while women delivering in hospitals had fewer C-sections and shorter LOS. Our results suggest that people avoided necessary hospitalization out of fear of being infected by COVID-19. To prevent the adverse impacts of delaying health care, policymakers should establish clear guidelines encouraging people to seek necessary care, especially during the reopening period.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 714-743
Author(s):  
Nan Li ◽  
◽  
Yuhong Zhu ◽  

This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 on the stock ambiguity, risks, liquidity, and stock prices in China stock market, before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 during the Chinese Spring Festival holidays in 2020. We measure stock ambiguity using the intraday trading data. The outbreak of COVID-19 has a significant impact on the average stock ambiguity, risk, and illiquidity in China and induces structural break in the market average ambiguity. However, the equity premium and liquidity premium change little during the same period. The market average stock ambiguity and risks decrease, and stock liquidity improves to pre-pandemic levels as the pandemic is under control in China. The market average stock ambiguity and risks in China increase again when the confirmed new cases in the U.S. surge in the second half of 2020. We also find a “flight-to-liquidity” phenomenon, and the equally-weighted (value-weighted) 20-trading-day liquidity premium declined significantly to about –4.42% (–6.48%) during the fourth quarter of 2020.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 666-696
Author(s):  
Shujie Peng ◽  
◽  
Jingjing Ye ◽  

This study employs a difference-in-differences approach to examine the US labor market response to two widely used social distancing policies, stay-at-home (SAH) order and non-essential business closure, with special attention paid to the asymmetric effect of the policies’ imposition and lifting. Exploiting the variation across states and time, we find that state employment rates declined by 4.3% and 1.9% for the two policies respectively, within one month of the enaction of social distancing policies, but the recovery was slower after the policies were removed. We also highlight that the low-income group suffered the highest employment rate drop from the SAH enaction while presenting the mildest rebound. Self-employed workers were more affected by the policy impositions but recovered slightly faster than wage earners. Our results suggest persistent efforts must be made after the pandemic, especially for more vulnerable groups in the labor market.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 744-777
Author(s):  
Yufei Liu ◽  
◽  
Xiaokun Chang ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Meng Zhao ◽  
...  

The new coronavirus outbreak provides a genuinely exogenous unanticipated shock that enables this study to identify its impact on offline consumption, using unique weekly UnionPay card transaction data in 16 districts of 206 business circles in Shanghai, after China’s outbreak in late January 2020. Based on the difference-in-differences estimation strategy, this study finds that weekly offline consumption fell by 1.843 million RMB, and offline consumption frequency fell 447 times per business circle during the 20 subsequent weeks. It also finds a significant heterogeneity effect on different districts and categories, different times in a day of offline consumption spending in the post-COVID-19 pandemic window period, in which the government implemented different level policy responses for major public health emergencies. These findings suggest that offline consumption fell drastically after the unanticipated pandemic shock, which also means that policymakers need to be cautious in achieving a balance between economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 589-606
Author(s):  
Chen Cheng ◽  
◽  
Jiasheng Li ◽  
Chuanchuan Zhang ◽  
◽  
...  

Policymakers have implemented a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the spread of COVID-19. Such policies vary substantially across regions or countries and, therefore, lead to variations in the diffusion patterns and fatality rates associated with this virus. We show that political decentralization is closely related to both the spread of COVID-19 and government responses to this spread. Specifically, we find that the disease tends to spread at higher speeds and result in more confirmed cases and deaths in countries that are more decentralized. We further show that it takes longer for more decentralized countries to implement any non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 and that more decentralized countries tend to adopt policies that are more targeted as opposed to being more generalized.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-469
Author(s):  
Jonathan E. Leightner ◽  

Some Ricardian models would predict a fall in unemployment with trade liberalization. In contrast, the Heckscher-Ohlin model (Stolper Samuelson Theorem) would predict trade liberalization would cause a fall in wages for labor scarce countries, resulting in greater unemployment if there are wage rigidities. The choice of which theoretical model is used affects the empirical results obtained. This paper produces estimates of the change in unemployment due to a change in imports that are not model dependent. The estimates produced are total derivatives that capture all the ways that imports and unemployment are correlated. I find that unemployment increases with increased imports for Austria, Greece, Japan, Portugal, South Korea, Slovenia, and Sweden, but that unemployment decreases with increased imports for Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, the UK, and the US.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 569-587
Author(s):  
Chunzi Wang ◽  
◽  
Mingxiong Zhu ◽  

Based on Johansen Cointegration Test, this paper sheds light on the long-run equilibrium relationship between natural gas consumption, gas production, and GDP in China. Three different natural gas demand scenarios of low, medium and high rates in the next ten years are considered, and a Neural Network Autoregression Model is used to predict the future carbon dioxide emission. We conclude: (1) In all three scenarios, the growth rates of natural gas consumption are all higher than those of natural gas production, while the gap between demand and domestic supply will gradually turn broader and China will largely rely on imports ; (2) In the scenario of low-rate economic growth, natural gas consumption will grow slowly, and it will be difficult to realize the carbon emission reduction targets by 2030 due to low-rate substitution of natural gas for coal; (3) If medium-rate to high-rate economic growth sustains, coupled with rapid increase in natural gas consumption and production, China’s Carbon Emission Reduction Targets for 2030 can be achieved with high-rate substitution of natural gas for coal.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-520
Author(s):  
Lin Guo ◽  
◽  
Xufei Zhang ◽  
Songlei Chao ◽  
◽  
...  

The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has had an adverse effect on China's economy. This paper uses the event study method to test and measure the impact of the open market reverse repo (OMRR) operation on the Chinese stock market. The results show that the OMRR operation generates a positive daily abnormal return and a positive daily cumulative abnormal return on average for all stocks. The impact is larger for non-state-owned enterprise (non-SOE) firms than for SOE firms, stocks of non-Hubei provinces than those of the Hubei province, and for stocks of the information transmission and technology industry than those of other industries. We suggest that our government implement more prudent monetary policies and more proactive fiscal policies.


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