MALLIAVIN CALCULUS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF TIME-VARYING REGRESSION MODELS USED IN FINANCIAL APPLICATIONS

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (05) ◽  
pp. 771-800 ◽  
Author(s):  
AHMED ABUTALEB ◽  
MICHAEL G. PAPAIOANNOU
Keyword(s):  
Malliavin Calculus ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Closed Form Solution ◽  
Form Solution ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients ◽  
Estimation Of Time

The paper introduces a new method for the estimation of time-varying regression coefficients employed in financial modeling. We use Malliavin calculus (stochastic calculus of variations) to estimate the time-varying regression coefficients that appear in linear regression models, and the generalized Clark–Ocone formula to derive a closed-form solution for the estimates of the time-varying coefficients. While this approach can be applied to any signal model, we present its application to signals modeled as a Brownian motion and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. Simulation results prove the superiority of the proposed method, as compared to conventional methods.

scholarly journals Bayesian Analysis of Coefficient Instability in Dynamic Regressions

Econometrics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Emanuela Ciapanna ◽  
Marco Taboga
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Bayesian Regression ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Parameter Instability ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiments ◽  
Finite Sample Properties ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients

This paper deals with instability in regression coefficients. We propose a Bayesian regression model with time-varying coefficients (TVC) that allows to jointly estimate the degree of instability and the time-path of the coefficients. Thanks to the computational tractability of the model and to the fact that it is fully automatic, we are able to run Monte Carlo experiments and analyze its finite-sample properties. We find that the estimation precision and the forecasting accuracy of the TVC model compare favorably to those of other methods commonly employed to deal with parameter instability. A distinguishing feature of the TVC model is its robustness to mis-specification: Its performance is also satisfactory when regression coefficients are stable or when they experience discrete structural breaks. As a demonstrative application, we used our TVC model to estimate the exposures of S&P 500 stocks to market-wide risk factors: We found that a vast majority of stocks had time-varying exposures and the TVC model helped to better forecast these exposures.

Prediction Using Partly Conditional Time-Varying Coefficients Regression Models

Biometrics ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 944-950 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret Sullivan Pepe ◽  
Patrick Heagerty ◽  
Robert Whitaker
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Conditional Time ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients

scholarly journals Geometric Average Asian Option Pricing with Paying Dividend Yield under Non-Extensive Statistical Mechanics for Time-Varying Model

Entropy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jixia Wang ◽  
Yameng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Mechanics ◽  
Option Pricing ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Closed Form Solution ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Form Solution ◽  
Asian Option ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Dividend Yield ◽  
Geometric Average

This paper is dedicated to the study of the geometric average Asian call option pricing under non-extensive statistical mechanics for a time-varying coefficient diffusion model. We employed the non-extensive Tsallis entropy distribution, which can describe the leptokurtosis and fat-tail characteristics of returns, to model the motion of the underlying asset price. Considering that economic variables change over time, we allowed the drift and diffusion terms in our model to be time-varying functions. We used the I t o ^ formula, Feynman–Kac formula, and P a d e ´ ansatz to obtain a closed-form solution of geometric average Asian option pricing with a paying dividend yield for a time-varying model. Moreover, the simulation study shows that the results obtained by our method fit the simulation data better than that of Zhao et al. From the analysis of real data, we identify the best value for q which can fit the real stock data, and the result shows that investors underestimate the risk using the Black–Scholes model compared to our model.

scholarly journals The VIT Transform Approach to Discrete-Time Signals and Linear Time-Varying Systems

Eng ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-125
Author(s):  
Edward W. Kamen
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Time ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Linear Time ◽  
Order Term ◽  
Initial Time ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Time Signals ◽  
Time Varying Systems ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients

A transform approach based on a variable initial time (VIT) formulation is developed for discrete-time signals and linear time-varying discrete-time systems or digital filters. The VIT transform is a formal power series in z−1, which converts functions given by linear time-varying difference equations into left polynomial fractions with variable coefficients, and with initial conditions incorporated into the framework. It is shown that the transform satisfies a number of properties that are analogous to those of the ordinary z-transform, and that it is possible to do scaling of z−i by time functions, which results in left-fraction forms for the transform of a large class of functions including sinusoids with general time-varying amplitudes and frequencies. Using the extended right Euclidean algorithm in a skew polynomial ring with time-varying coefficients, it is shown that a sum of left polynomial fractions can be written as a single fraction, which results in linear time-varying recursions for the inverse transform of the combined fraction. The extraction of a first-order term from a given polynomial fraction is carried out in terms of the evaluation of zi at time functions. In the application to linear time-varying systems, it is proved that the VIT transform of the system output is equal to the product of the VIT transform of the input and the VIT transform of the unit-pulse response function. For systems given by a time-varying moving average or an autoregressive model, the transform framework is used to determine the steady-state output response resulting from various signal inputs such as the step and cosine functions.

scholarly journals Estimating latent group structure in time-varying coefficient panel data models

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Chen
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Data Models ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Clustering Method ◽  
Varying Coefficient ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients ◽  
Latent Group ◽  
Group Structures

Summary This paper studies the estimation of latent group structures in heterogeneous time-varying coefficient panel data models. While allowing the coefficient functions to vary over cross-sections provides a good way to model cross-sectional heterogeneity, it reduces the degree of freedom and leads to poor estimation accuracy when the time-series length is short. On the other hand, in a lot of empirical studies, it is not uncommon to find that heterogeneous coefficients exhibit group structures where coefficients belonging to the same group are similar or identical. This paper aims to provide an easy and straightforward approach for estimating the underlying latent groups. This approach is based on the hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC) of kernel estimates of the heterogeneous time-varying coefficients when the number of groups is known. We establish the consistency of this clustering method and also propose a generalised information criterion for estimating the number of groups when it is unknown. Simulation studies are carried out to examine the finite-sample properties of the proposed clustering method as well as the post-clustering estimation of the group-specific time-varying coefficients. The simulation results show that our methods give comparable performance to the penalised-sieve-estimation-based classifier-LASSO approach by Su et al. (2018), but are computationally easier. An application to a panel study of economic growth is also provided.

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