scholarly journals INTEGRAL REPRESENTATION OF PROBABILITY DENSITY OF STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS AND TIMER OPTIONS

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (08) ◽  
pp. 1750055 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZHENYU CUI ◽  
J. LARS KIRKBY ◽  
GUANGHUA LIAN ◽  
DUY NGUYEN
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Probability Densities ◽  
Special Case

This paper contributes a generic probabilistic method to derive explicit exact probability densities for stochastic volatility models. Our method is based on a novel application of the exponential measure change in [Z. Palmowski & T. Rolski (2002) A technique for exponential change of measure for Markov processes, Bernoulli 8(6), 767–785]. With this generic approach, we first derive explicit probability densities in terms of model parameters for several stochastic volatility models with nonzero correlations, namely the Heston 1993, [Formula: see text], and a special case of the [Formula: see text]-Hypergeometric stochastic volatility models recently proposed by [J. Da Fonseca & C. Martini (2016) The [Formula: see text]-Hypergeometric stochastic volatility model, Stochastic Processes and their Applications 126(5), 1472–1502]. Then, we combine our method with a stochastic time change technique to develop explicit formulae for prices of timer options in the Heston model, the [Formula: see text] model and a special case of the [Formula: see text]-Hypergeometric model.

scholarly journals A note on stochastic volatility model estimation

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Omar Abbara ◽  
Mauricio Zevallos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Evaluation

<p>The paper assesses the method proposed by Shumway and Stoffer (2006, Chapter 6, Section 10) to estimate the parameters and volatility of stochastic volatility models. First, the paper presents a Monte Carlo evaluation of the parameter estimates considering several distributions for the perturbations in the observation equation. Second, the method is assessed empirically, through backtesting evaluation of VaR forecasts of the S&amp;P 500 time series returns. In both analyses, the paper also evaluates the convenience of using the Fuller transformation.</p>

scholarly journals CAM Stochastic Volatility Model for Option Pricing

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Wanwan Huang ◽  
Brian Ewald ◽  
Giray Ökten
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Characteristic Function ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Control Variate ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Cam Model

The coupled additive and multiplicative (CAM) noises model is a stochastic volatility model for derivative pricing. Unlike the other stochastic volatility models in the literature, the CAM model uses two Brownian motions, one multiplicative and one additive, to model the volatility process. We provide empirical evidence that suggests a nontrivial relationship between the kurtosis and skewness of asset prices and that the CAM model is able to capture this relationship, whereas the traditional stochastic volatility models cannot. We introduce a control variate method and Monte Carlo estimators for some of the sensitivities (Greeks) of the model. We also derive an approximation for the characteristic function of the model.

scholarly journals HEDGING UNDER THE HESTON MODEL WITH JUMP-TO-DEFAULT

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (04) ◽  
pp. 403-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER CARR ◽  
WIM SCHOUTENS
Keyword(s):  
Orthogonal Polynomials ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Call Option ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Default Swap ◽  
Special Case

In this paper, we will explain how to perfectly hedge under Heston's stochastic volatility model with jump-to-default, which is in itself a generalization of the Merton jump-to-default model and a special case of the Heston model with jumps. The hedging instruments we use to build the hedge will be as usual the stock and the bond, but also the Variance Swap (VS) and a Credit Default Swap (CDS). These instruments are very natural choices in this setting as the VS hedges against changes in the instantaneous variance rate, while the CDS protects against the occurrence of the default event. First, we explain how to perfectly hedge a power payoff under the Heston model with jump-to-default. These theoretical payoffs play an important role later on in the hedging of payoffs which are more liquid in practice such as vanilla options. After showing how to hedge the power payoffs, we show how to hedge newly introduced Gamma payoffs and Dirac payoffs, before turning to the hedge for the vanillas. The approach is inspired by the Post–Widder formula for real inversion of Laplace transforms. Finally, we will also show how power payoffs can readily be used to approximate any payoff only depending on the value of the underlier at maturity. Here, the theory of orthogonal polynomials comes into play and the technique is illustrated by replicating the payoff of a vanilla call option.

PRICING JOINT CLAIMS ON AN ASSET AND ITS REALIZED VARIANCE IN STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (01) ◽  
pp. 1350005 ◽  
Author(s):  
LORENZO TORRICELLI
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Numerical Results ◽  
Quadratic Variation ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
Joint Function ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model

In the setting of a stochastic volatility model, we find a general pricing equation for the class of payoffs depending on the terminal value of a market asset and its final quadratic variation. This provides a pricing tool for European-style claims paying off at maturity a joint function of the underlying and its realized volatility or variance. We study the solution under various specific stochastic volatility models, give a formula for the computation of the delta and gamma of these claims, and introduce some new interesting payoffs that can be valued by means of the general pricing equation. Numerical results are given and compared to those from plain vanilla derivatives.

Particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling for stochastic volatility models with: heavy tails, in mean effects, leverage, serial dependence and structural breaks

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nima Nonejad
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Heavy Tails ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model

AbstractParticle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PG-AS) is a new tool in the family of sequential Monte Carlo methods. We apply PG-AS to the challenging class of stochastic volatility models with increasing complexity, including leverage and in mean effects. We provide applications that demonstrate the flexibility of PG-AS under these different circumstances and justify applying it in practice. We also combine discrete structural breaks within the stochastic volatility model framework. For instance, we model changing time series characteristics of monthly postwar US core inflation rate using a structural break autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model with stochastic volatility. We allow for structural breaks in the level, long and short-memory parameters with simultaneous breaks in the level, persistence and the conditional volatility of the volatility of inflation.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Crude Oil Prices Volatility With Stochastic Volatility Models

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824402110262
Author(s):  
Dondukova Oyuna ◽  
Liu Yaobin
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Using Data

In this article, the stochastic volatility model is introduced to forecast crude oil volatility by using data from the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent markets. Not only that the model can capture stylized facts of multiskilling, extended memory, and structural breaks in volatility, it is also more frugal in parameterizations. The Euler–Maruyama scheme was applied to approximate the Heston model. On the contrary, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean average error (MAE) were used to approximate the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)–type models (symmetric and asymmetric). Based on the approximation results obtained, the study established that the stochastic volatility model fits oil return data better than the traditional GARCH-class models.

scholarly journals FAST HILBERT TRANSFORM ALGORITHMS FOR PRICING DISCRETE TIMER OPTIONS UNDER STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (07) ◽  
pp. 1550046 ◽  
Author(s):  
PINGPING ZENG ◽  
YUE KUEN KWOK ◽  
WENDONG ZHENG
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Hilbert Transform ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Expiration Date ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model

Timer options are barrier style options in the volatility space. A typical timer option is similar to its European vanilla counterpart, except with uncertain expiration date. The finite-maturity timer option expires either when the accumulated realized variance of the underlying asset has reached a pre-specified level or on the mandated expiration date, whichever comes earlier. The challenge in the pricing procedure is the incorporation of the barrier feature in terms of the accumulated realized variance instead of the usual knock-out feature of hitting a barrier by the underlying asset price. We construct the fast Hilbert transform algorithms for pricing finite-maturity discrete timer options under different types of stochastic volatility processes. The stochastic volatility processes nest some popular stochastic volatility models, like the Heston model and 3/2 stochastic volatility model. The barrier feature associated with the accumulated realized variance can be incorporated effectively into the fast Hilbert transform procedure with the computational convenience of avoiding the nuisance of recovering the option values in the real domain at each monitoring time instant in order to check for the expiry condition. Our numerical tests demonstrate high level of accuracy of the fast Hilbert transform algorithms. We also explore the pricing properties of the timer options with respect to various parameters, like the volatility of variance, correlation coefficient between the asset price process and instantaneous variance process, sampling frequency, and variance budget.

scholarly journals ON THE LOG PERIODOGRAM REGRESSION ESTIMATOR OF THE MEMORY PARAMETER IN LONG MEMORY STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS

2001 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 686-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohit S. Deo ◽  
Clifford M. Hurvich
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Asymptotic Bias ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Memory Parameter ◽  
Memory Series

We consider semiparametric estimation of the memory parameter in a long memory stochastic volatility model. We study the estimator based on a log periodogram regression as originally proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983, Journal of Time Series Analysis 4, 221–238). Expressions for the asymptotic bias and variance of the estimator are obtained, and the asymptotic distribution is shown to be the same as that obtained in recent literature for a Gaussian long memory series. The theoretical result does not require omission of a block of frequencies near the origin. We show that this ability to use the lowest frequencies is particularly desirable in the context of the long memory stochastic volatility model.

STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL WITH CORRELATED JUMP SIZES AND INDEPENDENT ARRIVALS

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Pengzhan Chen ◽  
Wuyi Ye
Keyword(s):  
Closed Form ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Period Analysis ◽  
New Class ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Article Study ◽  
Jump Sizes

In light of recent empirical research on jump activity, this article study the calibration of a new class of stochastic volatility models that include both jumps in return and volatility. Specifically, we consider correlated jump sizes and both contemporaneous and independent arrival of jumps in return and volatility. Based on the specifications of this model, we derive a closed-form relationship between the VIX index and latent volatility. Also, we propose a closed-form logarithmic likelihood formula by using the link to the VIX index. By estimating alternative models, we find that the general counting processes setting lead to better capturing of return jump behaviors. That is, the part where the return and volatility jump simultaneously and the part that jump independently can both be captured. In addition, the size of the jumps in volatility is, on average, positive for both contemporaneous and independent arrivals. However, contemporaneous jumps in the return are negative, but independent return jumps are positive. The sub-period analysis further supports above insight, and we find that the jumps in return and volatility increased significantly during the two recent economic crises.

Implied Stochastic Volatility Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 394-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yacine Aït-Sahalia ◽  
Chenxu Li ◽  
Chen Xu Li
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Nonparametric Model ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Out Of Sample

Abstract This paper proposes “implied stochastic volatility models” designed to fit option-implied volatility data and implements a new estimation method for such models. The method is based on explicitly linking observed shape characteristics of the implied volatility surface to the coefficient functions that define the stochastic volatility model. The method can be applied to estimate a fully flexible nonparametric model, or to estimate by the generalized method of moments any arbitrary parametric stochastic volatility model, affine or not. Empirical evidence based on S&P 500 index options data show that the method is stable and performs well out of sample.

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