scholarly journals Forecasting the Crude Oil Prices Volatility With Stochastic Volatility Models

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215824402110262
Author(s):  
Dondukova Oyuna ◽  
Liu Yaobin
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Using Data

In this article, the stochastic volatility model is introduced to forecast crude oil volatility by using data from the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent markets. Not only that the model can capture stylized facts of multiskilling, extended memory, and structural breaks in volatility, it is also more frugal in parameterizations. The Euler–Maruyama scheme was applied to approximate the Heston model. On the contrary, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean average error (MAE) were used to approximate the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)–type models (symmetric and asymmetric). Based on the approximation results obtained, the study established that the stochastic volatility model fits oil return data better than the traditional GARCH-class models.

scholarly journals INTEGRAL REPRESENTATION OF PROBABILITY DENSITY OF STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS AND TIMER OPTIONS

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (08) ◽  
pp. 1750055 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZHENYU CUI ◽  
J. LARS KIRKBY ◽  
GUANGHUA LIAN ◽  
DUY NGUYEN
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Probability Densities ◽  
Special Case

This paper contributes a generic probabilistic method to derive explicit exact probability densities for stochastic volatility models. Our method is based on a novel application of the exponential measure change in [Z. Palmowski & T. Rolski (2002) A technique for exponential change of measure for Markov processes, Bernoulli 8(6), 767–785]. With this generic approach, we first derive explicit probability densities in terms of model parameters for several stochastic volatility models with nonzero correlations, namely the Heston 1993, [Formula: see text], and a special case of the [Formula: see text]-Hypergeometric stochastic volatility models recently proposed by [J. Da Fonseca & C. Martini (2016) The [Formula: see text]-Hypergeometric stochastic volatility model, Stochastic Processes and their Applications 126(5), 1472–1502]. Then, we combine our method with a stochastic time change technique to develop explicit formulae for prices of timer options in the Heston model, the [Formula: see text] model and a special case of the [Formula: see text]-Hypergeometric model.

Particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling for stochastic volatility models with: heavy tails, in mean effects, leverage, serial dependence and structural breaks

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nima Nonejad
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Heavy Tails ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model

AbstractParticle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PG-AS) is a new tool in the family of sequential Monte Carlo methods. We apply PG-AS to the challenging class of stochastic volatility models with increasing complexity, including leverage and in mean effects. We provide applications that demonstrate the flexibility of PG-AS under these different circumstances and justify applying it in practice. We also combine discrete structural breaks within the stochastic volatility model framework. For instance, we model changing time series characteristics of monthly postwar US core inflation rate using a structural break autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model with stochastic volatility. We allow for structural breaks in the level, long and short-memory parameters with simultaneous breaks in the level, persistence and the conditional volatility of the volatility of inflation.

scholarly journals VARIANCE AND VOLATILITY SWAPS UNDER A TWO-FACTOR STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL WITH REGIME SWITCHING

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950009
Author(s):  
XIN-JIANG HE ◽  
SONG-PING ZHU
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Characteristic Function ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Cir Process

In this paper, the pricing problem of variance and volatility swaps is discussed under a two-factor stochastic volatility model. This model can be treated as a two-factor Heston model with one factor following the CIR process and another characterized by a Markov chain, with the motivation originating from the popularity of the Heston model and the strong evidence of the existence of regime switching in real markets. Based on the derived forward characteristic function of the underlying price, analytical pricing formulae for variance and volatility swaps are presented, and numerical experiments are also conducted to compare swap prices calculated through our formulae and those obtained under the Heston model to show whether the introduction of the regime switching factor would lead to any significant difference.

A NOVEL ANALYTICAL APPROACH FOR PRICING DISCRETELY SAMPLED GAMMA SWAPS IN THE HESTON MODEL

2016 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 244-268
Author(s):  
SANAE RUJIVAN
Keyword(s):  
Closed Form ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Analytical Approach ◽  
Solution Procedure ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Variance Swaps ◽  
Closed Form Solutions ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Closed Form Formula

The main purpose of this paper is to present a novel analytical approach for pricing discretely sampled gamma swaps, defined in terms of weighted variance swaps of the underlying asset, based on Heston’s two-factor stochastic volatility model. The closed-form formula obtained in this paper is in a much simpler form than those proposed in the literature, which substantially reduces the computational burden and can be implemented efficiently. The solution procedure presented in this paper can be adopted to derive closed-form solutions for pricing various types of weighted variance swaps, such as self-quantoed variance and entropy swaps. Most interestingly, we discuss the validity of the current solutions in the parameter space, and provide market practitioners with some remarks for trading these types of weighted variance swaps.

ON PRICING CONTINGENT CLAIMS UNDER THE DOUBLE HESTON MODEL

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (05) ◽  
pp. 1250033 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. COSTABILE ◽  
I. MASSABÒ ◽  
E. RUSSO
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Contingent Claims ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
State Variable ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Asset Value

This article presents a lattice based approach for pricing contingent claims when the underlying asset evolves according to the double Heston (dH) stochastic volatility model introduced by Christoffersen et al. (2009). We discretize the continuous evolution of both squared volatilities by a "binomial pyramid", and consider the asset value as an auxiliary state variable for which a subset of possible realizations is attached to each node of the pyramid. The elements of the subset cover the range of asset prices at each time slice, and claim price is computed solving backward through the "binomial pyramid". Numerical experiments confirm the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model.

scholarly journals A note on stochastic volatility model estimation

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Omar Abbara ◽  
Mauricio Zevallos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Evaluation

<p>The paper assesses the method proposed by Shumway and Stoffer (2006, Chapter 6, Section 10) to estimate the parameters and volatility of stochastic volatility models. First, the paper presents a Monte Carlo evaluation of the parameter estimates considering several distributions for the perturbations in the observation equation. Second, the method is assessed empirically, through backtesting evaluation of VaR forecasts of the S&amp;P 500 time series returns. In both analyses, the paper also evaluates the convenience of using the Fuller transformation.</p>

scholarly journals Malliavin differentiability of the Heston volatility and applications to option pricing

2008 ◽  
Vol 40 (01) ◽  
pp. 144-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Alòs ◽  
Christian-Oliver Ewald
Keyword(s):  
Option Pricing ◽  
Explicit Expression ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Malliavin Calculus ◽  
Numerical Results ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Malliavin Derivative ◽  
Volatility Model

We prove that the Heston volatility is Malliavin differentiable under the classical Novikov condition and give an explicit expression for the derivative. This result guarantees the applicability of Malliavin calculus in the framework of the Heston stochastic volatility model. Furthermore, we derive conditions on the parameters which assure the existence of the second Malliavin derivative of the Heston volatility. This allows us to apply recent results of Alòs (2006) in order to derive approximate option pricing formulae in the context of the Heston model. Numerical results are given.

VALUE-AT-RISK COMPUTATIONS IN STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS USING SECOND-ORDER WEAK APPROXIMATION SCHEMES

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 1450004
Author(s):  
EVA LÜTKEBOHMERT ◽  
LYDIENNE MATCHIE
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Approximation Schemes ◽  
Weak Approximation ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Model Correlation

We explore the class of second-order weak approximation schemes (cubature methods) for the numerical simulation of joint default probabilities in credit portfolios where the firm's asset value processes are assumed to follow the multivariate Heston stochastic volatility model. Correlation between firms' asset processes is reflected by the dependence on a common set of underlying risk factors. In particular, we consider the Ninomiya–Victoir algorithm and we study the application of this method for the computation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall. Numerical simulations for these quantities for some exogenous portfolios demonstrate the numerical efficiency of the method.

scholarly journals SWITCHING TO NONAFFINE STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY: A CLOSED-FORM EXPANSION FOR THE INVERSE GAMMA MODEL

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (05) ◽  
pp. 1650031 ◽  
Author(s):  
NICOLAS LANGRENÉ ◽  
GEOFFREY LEE ◽  
ZILI ZHU
Keyword(s):  
Closed Form ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Heston Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Market Data ◽  
Affine Models ◽  
Inverse Gamma ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Black Scholes

We examine the inverse gamma (IGa) stochastic volatility model with time-dependent parameters. This nonaffine model compares favorably in terms of volatility distribution and volatility paths to classical affine models such as the Heston model, while being as parsimonious (only four stochastic parameters). In practice, this means more robust calibration and better hedging, explaining its popularity among practitioners. Closed-form volatility-of-volatility expansions are obtained for the price of vanilla options, which allow for very fast pricing and calibration to market data. Specifically, the price of a European put option with IGa volatility is approximated by a Black–Scholes price plus a weighted combination of Black–Scholes Greeks, with weights depending only on the four time-dependent parameters of the model. The accuracy of the expansion is illustrated on several calibration tests on foreign exchange market data. This paper shows that the IGa model is as simple, more realistic, easier to implement and faster to calibrate than classical transform-based affine models. We therefore hope that the present work will foster further research on nonaffine models favored by practitioners such as the IGa model.

scholarly journals Mean-correction and Higher Order Moments for a Stochastic Volatility Model with Correlated Errors

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujay Mukhoti ◽  
Pritam Ranjan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Correlated Errors ◽  
The Past ◽  
Volatility Models ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Zero Correlation ◽  
Desirable Feature ◽  
Analytical Expressions

In an efficient stock market, the log-returns and their time-dependent variances are often jointly modelled by  stochastic volatility models (SVMs). Many SVMs assume that errors in log-return and latent volatility process are uncorrelated, which is unrealistic. It turns out that if a non-zero correlation is included in the SVM (e.g., \cite{Shephard05}), then the expected log-return at time $t$ conditional on the past returns is non-zero, which is not a desirable feature of an efficient stock market. In this paper, we propose a mean-correction for such an SVM for discrete-time returns with non-zero correlation. We also find closed form analytical expressions for higher moments of log-return and its lead-lag correlations with the volatility process. We compare the performance of the proposed and classical SVMs on S\&P 500 index returns obtained from NYSE.

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