scholarly journals SCALING TRANSFORMATION IN THE REMBRANDT TECHNIQUE: EXAMINATION OF THE PROGRESSION FACTORS

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (05) ◽  
pp. 887-903 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL BRUHN BARFOD ◽  
STEEN LELEUR
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Verbal Responses ◽  
Criteria Weights ◽  
Infrastructure Project ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Progression Factor ◽  
Choice Of Technique ◽  
Multiplicative Ahp

This paper examines a decision support system (DSS) for the appraisal of complex decision problems using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The DSS makes use of a structured hierarchical approach featuring the multiplicative AHP also known as the REMBRANDT technique. The paper addresses the influence of the progression factor used when transforming the decision makers' verbal responses from a semantic to a geometric scale in REMBRANDT. Conventionally, the progression factor 2 is used for calculating scores of alternatives and √2 for calculation of criteria weights. Tests are conducted on the magnitude of these progression factors in order to examine the sensitivity towards the final outcome of an analysis. For illustration a case study concerning the appraisal of a large infrastructure project is presented. The results of the sensitivity calculations are compared with the results of a conventional AHP calculation in order to examine what impact the choice of progression factors as well as the choice of technique have on the decision making. Based on this a modified progression factor for the calculation of scores for the alternatives in REMBRANDT is suggested while the progression factor for the criteria weights is suggested to be kept unchanged. Finally, conclusions and perspectives are set out.

scholarly journals Siting MSW landfills via the integration of DEMATEL-ANP and clustering algorithm in a fuzzy logic environment (Case Study: Lanzhou, China)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiamin Liu ◽  
Yueshi Li ◽  
Bin Xiao ◽  
Jizong Jiao
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Clustering Algorithms ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Spatial Distribution Characteristics ◽  
Criteria Weights ◽  
Spatial Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract The siting of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) landfills is a complex decision based process that involves multiple hydrogeological, morphological, environmental, climatic, and socio-economic criteria. In a fuzzy logic environment, DEMATEL and ANP methods were employed to comprehensively consider uncertainty, fuzziness of data and the subjective scoring and stability of results to enhance the spatial decision-making process. Primarily, 21 criteria were identified in five groups through the Delphi method at 30m resolution, criteria weights were determined via the integration of DEMATEL and ANP, and seven sets of membership functions were simulated to obtain the best fuzzy logic environment. Combining GIS spatial analysis and the three clustering algorithms (DBSCAN, HDBSCAN, and OPTICS), candidate sites that satisfied the landfill conditions were identified, and the spatial distribution characteristics and reachability were analyzed. These sites were subsequently ranked utilizing the MOORA, WASPAS, COPRAS, and TOPSIS methods to verify the reliability of the results by conducting sensitivity analysis. This paper focuses on a flexible and novel framework for the selection of MSW landfill sites for Lanzhou, which is a semi-arid valley basin city in China. In contrast to common techniques, this model not only made the best recommendation scientifically and efficiently but could also provide accurate assessment data for decision makers in landfill construction and high-quality urban development.

scholarly journals Coupling Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making and Clustering Algorithm for MSW Landfill Site Selection (Case Study: Lanzhou, China)

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 403
Author(s):  
Jiamin Liu ◽  
Yueshi Li ◽  
Bin Xiao ◽  
Jizong Jiao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Fuzzy Membership Function ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Landfill Site Selection ◽  
Spatial Distribution Characteristics ◽  
Criteria Weights ◽  
Spatial Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision

The siting of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) landfills is a complex decision process. Existing siting methods utilize expert scores to determine criteria weights, however, they ignore the uncertainty of data and criterion weights and the efficacy of results. In this study, a coupled fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach was employed to site landfills in Lanzhou, a semi-arid valley basin city in China, to enhance the spatial decision-making process. Primarily, 21 criteria were identified in five groups through the Delphi method at 30 m resolution, then criteria weights were obtained by DEMATEL and ANP, and the optimal fuzzy membership function was determined for each evaluation criterion. Combined with GIS spatial analysis and the clustering algorithm, candidate sites that satisfied the landfill conditions were identified, and the spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed. These sites were subsequently ranked utilizing the MOORA, WASPAS, COPRAS, and TOPSIS methods to verify the reliability of the results by conducting sensitivity analysis. This study is different from the previous research that applied the MCDM approach in that fuzzy MCDM for weighting criteria is more reliable compared to the other common methods.

Drifting the goals archetype: a systemic study

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virupaxi Bagodi ◽  
Biswajit Mahanty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Current Reality

PurposeManagerial decision-making is an area of interest to both academia and practitioners. Researchers found that managers often fail to manage complex decision-making tasks and system thinkers assert that generic structures known as systems archetypes help them to a great deal in handling such situations. In this paper, it is demonstrated that decision makers resort to lowering of goal (quick-fix) in order to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality in the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.Design/methodology/approachA real-life case study is taken up to highlight the pitfalls of “drifting the goals” systems archetype for a decision situation in the Indian two-wheeler industry. System dynamics modeling is made use of to obtain the results.FindingsThe decision makers fail to realize the pitfall of lowering the goal to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality. It is seen that, irrespective of current less-than-desirable performance, managers adopting corrective actions other than lowering of goals perform better in the long run. Further, it is demonstrated that extending the boundary and experimentation results in designing a better service system and setting benchmarks.Practical implicationsThe best possible way to avoid the pitfall is to hold the vision and not lower the long term goal. The managers must be aware of the pitfalls beforehand.Originality/valueSystems thinking is important in complex decision-making tasks. Managers need to embrace long-term perspective in decision-making. This paper demonstrates the value of systems thinking in terms of a case study on the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.

Risiko- und Notfallmanagement unter Unsicherheit (Teil 2)

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-16
Author(s):  
Jutta Geldermann ◽  
Valentin Bertsch ◽  
Florian Gering
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Complex Decision

Komplexe Entscheidungssituationen, wie sie beispielsweise im Notfall- und Sanierungsmanagement nach einem kerntechnischen Störfall auftreten, erfordern eine Berücksichtigung technischer, ökonomischer, ökologischer, sozio-psychologischer und politischer Aspekte. Ansätze der Mehrzielentscheidungsunterstützung ermöglichen eine aggregierte Betrachtung verschiedener Aspekte, das Miteinbeziehen der subjektiven Präferenzen der Entscheidungsträger und tragen zu mehr Transparenz und Nachvollziehbarkeit von Entscheidungsprozessen bei. Dieser Beitrag befasst sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der Betrachtung von Unsicherheiten in solchen Entscheidungsprozessen. Zur Modellierung, Fortpflanzung und Visualisierung von Unsicherheiten wird ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz vorgestellt und beispielhaft auf Daten eines fiktiven nuklearen Unfallszenarios angewendet. Generell ist der Ansatz jedoch auf allgemeine komplexe Entscheidungssituationen erweiterbar, insbesondere auf den Bereich sonstiger industrieller Notfälle. Eine interessante Fragestellung besteht weiterhin in der Untersuchung der Auswirkungen industrieller Notfälle auf die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette. Der erste Teil des Aufsatzes wurde bereits in Der Betriebswirt 1/2011 veröffentlicht, der letzte Teil folgt in Ausgabe 3/2011. Complex decision situations, such as in nuclear emergency and remediation management, require the consideration of technical, economic, ecological, socio-psychological and political aspects. Approaches for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decision processes. This paper focuses on the handling of uncertainties in such decision processes. Monte Carlo approaches can be used to model, propagate and finally visualise the uncertainties, as a case study on a hypothetical radiological accident scenario illustrates. In general, the presented approach can be adopted for any complex decision situation, especially for industrial emergencies. Further research would be necessary for the analysis of their consequences for entire supply chains. Keywords: risiko und notfallmanagement unter unsicherheit

scholarly journals Assessing the efficiency and the criticality of the elements belonging to a complex territorial system subject to natural hazards

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Minciardi ◽  
R. Sacile ◽  
E. Trasforini
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
External Stress ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Natural Risk ◽  
Service Demand

Abstract. The effects of natural hazards can be mitigated by the use of proper "pre-event" interventions on "key" elements of the territory, that is on elements that are mostly vulnerable to a given catastrophic scenario and whose loss of functionality can cause damages on people, property and environment. In this respect, methodologies and tools should be studied to support decision makers in the analysis of a territory, in order to point out such elements. In this work, vulnerability is taken into account under two aspects: "physical vulnerability", which measures the propensity of a territorial element to suffer damage when subject to an external stress corresponding to the occurrence of a natural phenomenon; "functional vulnerability", which measures the propensity of a territorial element to suffer loss in functionality, even when that is caused by the loss of functionality of other territorial elements. In the proposed modeling approach, vulnerability is represented through the use of a graph-based formalization. A territorial system is represented as a complex set of elements or sub-systems. Such elements have differentiated and dedicated functions, and they may be functionally interconnected among them. In addition, vulnerability is defined through the use of two different variables, namely the criticality and the efficiency. Focusing the attention on the temporal phases corresponding to the occurrence of a calamitous event, the first one measures the service demand of an element, whereas the efficiency is a measure of the service that can be offered by such an element. The approach presented is largely independent from the natural risk considered. Besides, the tools introduced for the vulnerability analysis of the territorial system can also be used to formalize decision problems relevant to the location of the available resources for emergency management. A specific case study pertaining to the hydrological risk in the Val di Vara area (Italy) is presented.

scholarly journals Decision-making on Implementation of IPO Under Topological Uncertainty

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karel Doubravský ◽  
Tomáš Meluzín ◽  
Mirko Dohnal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Initial Public Offering ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Structure Topology ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Flexible Integration ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Public Offering

IPO (Initial Public Offering) is a complex decision making task which is always associated with different types of uncertainty. Poor accuracies of available probabilities of lotteries e.g. quantification of investor interest is studied in the first part of this paper (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). However, IPO is often prohibitively ill-known. This paper takes into consideration the fact that decision makers cannot specify the structure/topology of the relevant decision tree. It means that one IPO task is specified by several (partially) different decision trees which comes from different sources e.g. from different teams of decision makers/experts. A flexible integration of those trees is based on fuzzy logic using the reconciliation (Meluzín, Doubravský, Dohnal, 2012). The developed algorithm is demonstrated by a case study which is presented in details. The IPO case integrates two partially different decision trees.

Risiko- und Notfallmanagement unter Unsicherheit - Teil 1

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-32
Author(s):  
Jutta Geldermann ◽  
Valentin Bertsch ◽  
Florian Gering
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Complex Decision

Komplexe Entscheidungssituationen, wie sie beispielsweise im Notfall- und Sanierungsmanagement nach einem kerntechnischen Störfall auftreten, erfordern eine Berücksichtigung technischer, ökonomischer, ökologischer, sozio-psychologischer und politischer Aspekte. Ansätze der Mehrzielentscheidungsunterstützung ermöglichen eine aggregierte Betrachtung verschiedener Aspekte, das Miteinbeziehen der subjektiven Präferenzen der Entscheidungsträger und tragen zu mehr Transparenz und Nachvollziehbarkeit von Entscheidungsprozessen bei. Dieser Beitrag befasst sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der Betrachtung von Unsicherheiten in solchen Entscheidungsprozessen. Zur Modellierung, Fortpflanzung und Visualisierung von Unsicherheiten wird ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz vorgestellt und beispielhaft auf Daten eines fiktiven nuklearen Unfallszenarios angewendet. Generell ist der Ansatz jedoch auf allgemeine komplexe Entscheidungssituationen erweiterbar, insbesondere auf den Bereich sonstiger industrieller Notfälle. Eine interessante Fragestellung besteht weiterhin in der Untersuchung der Auswirkungen industrieller Notfälle auf die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette. Complex decision situations, such as in nuclear emergency and remediation management, require the consideration of technical, economic, ecological, socio-psychological and political aspects. Approaches for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decision processes. This paper focuses on the handling of uncertainties in such decision processes. Monte Carlo approaches can be used to model, propagate and finally visualise the uncertainties, as a case study on a hypothetical radiological accident scenario illustrates. In general, the presented approach can be adopted for any complex decision situation, especially for industrial emergencies. Further research would be necessary for the analysis of their consequences for entire supply chains. Keywords: risiko und notfallmanagement unter unsicherheit

CONDITIONS OF THE DECISION - MAKING PROCESS

2017 ◽  
Vol 186 (4) ◽  
pp. 249-271
Author(s):  
Zbigniew ŚCIBIOREK
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Problematic Situation ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
Interdisciplinary Knowledge ◽  
Complex Decision

In the article it has been emphasized, without analyzing the problematic situation, that making decision is becoming an increasingly complex process. This is influenced by many factors, mainly the dynamism of changes taking place and the significant impact of the environment. Information is essential to take correct and effective decisions. It is not always certain (reliable). Uncertainty and risk accompany decision makers and the point is that the decisions are adequate to the ensuing situation and create realistic determinants for achieving objectives – the implementation of the planned tasks. Interdisciplinary knowledge and high competences of persons making resolutions of complex decision problems are indispensable.

scholarly journals MULTI-CRITERIA MODEL BASED ON LINGUISTIC NEUTROSOPHIC NUMBERS: THE SELECTION OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Goran Ćirović ◽  
Dragan Pamučar ◽  
Nataša Popović-Miletić
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Linguistic Neutrosophic Numbers ◽  
Selection Of

The paper presents a new approach in treating uncertainty and subjectivity in the decision making process based on the modification of Multi Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison (MABAC) and an Objective-Subjective (OS) model by applying linguistic neutrosophic numbers (LNN) instead of traditional numerical values. By integrating these models with linguistic neutrosophic numbers it was shown that it is possible to a significant extent to eliminate subjective qualitative assessments and assumptions by decision makers in complex decision-making conditions. On this basis, a new hybrid LNN OS-MABAC model was formed. This model was tested and validated on a case-study of the selection of optimal unmanned aircraft intended to combat forest fires.

Towards an Ontology for Impact Projection of Complex Decisions

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision System ◽  
Constant Change ◽  
Work Tasks ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
The Impact

Complex decisions are an unusual process, composed of actions. An impact is a measure of the tangible and intangible consequences of one thing on another. Impacts are interdependent, and the environment in which they are measured generates constant change for decision making. This paper proposes the impact projection’s conceptualization, organized into a meta-ontology called OntoImpact. It comprises concepts that are crucial in supporting the understanding and representation of impact projections for complex decisions. The main contribution of OntoImpact is to support decision-makers in their work tasks, besides providing bases to support the development of a complex decision system. This paper was evaluated in a case study of an emergency domain. The results show that OntoImpact provides elements that can support complex decision analysis and project impacts in a collaborative way.

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