Risiko- und Notfallmanagement unter Unsicherheit (Teil 2)

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-16
Author(s):  
Jutta Geldermann ◽  
Valentin Bertsch ◽  
Florian Gering
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Complex Decision

Komplexe Entscheidungssituationen, wie sie beispielsweise im Notfall- und Sanierungsmanagement nach einem kerntechnischen Störfall auftreten, erfordern eine Berücksichtigung technischer, ökonomischer, ökologischer, sozio-psychologischer und politischer Aspekte. Ansätze der Mehrzielentscheidungsunterstützung ermöglichen eine aggregierte Betrachtung verschiedener Aspekte, das Miteinbeziehen der subjektiven Präferenzen der Entscheidungsträger und tragen zu mehr Transparenz und Nachvollziehbarkeit von Entscheidungsprozessen bei. Dieser Beitrag befasst sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der Betrachtung von Unsicherheiten in solchen Entscheidungsprozessen. Zur Modellierung, Fortpflanzung und Visualisierung von Unsicherheiten wird ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz vorgestellt und beispielhaft auf Daten eines fiktiven nuklearen Unfallszenarios angewendet. Generell ist der Ansatz jedoch auf allgemeine komplexe Entscheidungssituationen erweiterbar, insbesondere auf den Bereich sonstiger industrieller Notfälle. Eine interessante Fragestellung besteht weiterhin in der Untersuchung der Auswirkungen industrieller Notfälle auf die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette. Der erste Teil des Aufsatzes wurde bereits in Der Betriebswirt 1/2011 veröffentlicht, der letzte Teil folgt in Ausgabe 3/2011. Complex decision situations, such as in nuclear emergency and remediation management, require the consideration of technical, economic, ecological, socio-psychological and political aspects. Approaches for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decision processes. This paper focuses on the handling of uncertainties in such decision processes. Monte Carlo approaches can be used to model, propagate and finally visualise the uncertainties, as a case study on a hypothetical radiological accident scenario illustrates. In general, the presented approach can be adopted for any complex decision situation, especially for industrial emergencies. Further research would be necessary for the analysis of their consequences for entire supply chains. Keywords: risiko und notfallmanagement unter unsicherheit

Risiko- und Notfallmanagement unter Unsicherheit - Teil 1

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-32
Author(s):  
Jutta Geldermann ◽  
Valentin Bertsch ◽  
Florian Gering
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Complex Decision

Komplexe Entscheidungssituationen, wie sie beispielsweise im Notfall- und Sanierungsmanagement nach einem kerntechnischen Störfall auftreten, erfordern eine Berücksichtigung technischer, ökonomischer, ökologischer, sozio-psychologischer und politischer Aspekte. Ansätze der Mehrzielentscheidungsunterstützung ermöglichen eine aggregierte Betrachtung verschiedener Aspekte, das Miteinbeziehen der subjektiven Präferenzen der Entscheidungsträger und tragen zu mehr Transparenz und Nachvollziehbarkeit von Entscheidungsprozessen bei. Dieser Beitrag befasst sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der Betrachtung von Unsicherheiten in solchen Entscheidungsprozessen. Zur Modellierung, Fortpflanzung und Visualisierung von Unsicherheiten wird ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz vorgestellt und beispielhaft auf Daten eines fiktiven nuklearen Unfallszenarios angewendet. Generell ist der Ansatz jedoch auf allgemeine komplexe Entscheidungssituationen erweiterbar, insbesondere auf den Bereich sonstiger industrieller Notfälle. Eine interessante Fragestellung besteht weiterhin in der Untersuchung der Auswirkungen industrieller Notfälle auf die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette. Complex decision situations, such as in nuclear emergency and remediation management, require the consideration of technical, economic, ecological, socio-psychological and political aspects. Approaches for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decision processes. This paper focuses on the handling of uncertainties in such decision processes. Monte Carlo approaches can be used to model, propagate and finally visualise the uncertainties, as a case study on a hypothetical radiological accident scenario illustrates. In general, the presented approach can be adopted for any complex decision situation, especially for industrial emergencies. Further research would be necessary for the analysis of their consequences for entire supply chains. Keywords: risiko und notfallmanagement unter unsicherheit

Risiko- und Notfallmanagement unter Unsicherheit (Teil 3)

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 10-14
Author(s):  
Jutta Geldermann ◽  
Valentin Bertsch ◽  
Florian Gering
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Situation ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Accident Scenario ◽  
Complex Decision

Komplexe Entscheidungssituationen, wie sie beispielsweise im Notfall- und Sanierungsmanagement nach einem kerntechnischen Störfall auftreten, erfordern eine Berücksichtigung technischer, ökonomischer, ökologischer, sozio-psychologischer und politischer Aspekte. Ansätze der Mehrzielentscheidungsunterstützung ermöglichen eine aggregierte Betrachtung verschiedener Aspekte, das Miteinbeziehen der subjektiven Präferenzen der Entscheidungsträger und tragen zu mehr Transparenz und Nachvollziehbarkeit von Entscheidungsprozessen bei. Dieser Beitrag befasst sich schwerpunktmäßig mit der Betrachtung von Unsicherheiten in solchen Entscheidungsprozessen. Zur Modellierung, Fortpflanzung und Visualisierung von Unsicherheiten wird ein Monte-Carlo-Ansatz vorgestellt und beispielhaft auf Daten eines fiktiven nuklearen Unfallszenarios angewendet. Generell ist der Ansatz jedoch auf allgemeine komplexe Entscheidungssituationen erweiterbar, insbesondere auf den Bereich sonstiger industrieller Notfälle. Eine interessante Fragestellung besteht weiterhin in der Untersuchung der Auswirkungen industrieller Notfälle auf die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette. Die ersten Teile des Aufsatzes wurden bereits in Der Betriebswirt 1/2011 und 2/2011 veröffentlicht. Complex decision situations, such as in nuclear emergency and remediation management, require the consideration of technical, economic, ecological, socio-psychological and political aspects. Approaches for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) help to take into account various incommensurable aspects and subjective preferences of the decision makers and thus contribute to transparency and traceability of decision processes. This paper focuses on the handling of uncertainties in such decision processes. Monte Carlo approaches can be used to model, propagate and finally visualise the uncertainties, as a case study on a hypothetical radiological accident scenario illustrates. In general, the presented approach can be adopted for any complex decision situation, especially for industrial emergencies. Further research would be necessary for the analysis of their consequences for entire supply chains. Keywords: risiko und notfallmanagement unter unsicherheit

Towards an Ontology for Impact Projection of Complex Decisions

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision System ◽  
Constant Change ◽  
Work Tasks ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
The Impact

Complex decisions are an unusual process, composed of actions. An impact is a measure of the tangible and intangible consequences of one thing on another. Impacts are interdependent, and the environment in which they are measured generates constant change for decision making. This paper proposes the impact projection’s conceptualization, organized into a meta-ontology called OntoImpact. It comprises concepts that are crucial in supporting the understanding and representation of impact projections for complex decisions. The main contribution of OntoImpact is to support decision-makers in their work tasks, besides providing bases to support the development of a complex decision system. This paper was evaluated in a case study of an emergency domain. The results show that OntoImpact provides elements that can support complex decision analysis and project impacts in a collaborative way.

scholarly journals An Innovative Grey Approach for Group Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Based on the Median of Ratings by Using Python

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Dragiša Stanujkić ◽  
Darjan Karabašević ◽  
Gabrijela Popović ◽  
Predrag S. Stanimirović ◽  
Florentin Smarandache ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Likert Scale ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

Some decision-making problems, i.e., multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) problems, require taking into account the attitudes of a large number of decision-makers and/or respondents. Therefore, an approach to the transformation of crisp ratings, collected from respondents, in grey interval numbers form based on the median of collected scores, i.e., ratings, is considered in this article. In this way, the simplicity of collecting respondents’ attitudes using crisp values, i.e., by applying some form of Likert scale, is combined with the advantages that can be achieved by using grey interval numbers. In this way, a grey extension of MCDA methods is obtained. The application of the proposed approach was considered in the example of evaluating the websites of tourism organizations by using several MCDA methods. Additionally, an analysis of the application of the proposed approach in the case of a large number of respondents, done in Python, is presented. The advantages of the proposed method, as well as its possible limitations, are summarized.

Using multi criteria decision analysis to evaluate nanotechnology: nAg enabled textiles as a case study

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 1647-1655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea L. Hicks
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

Nanosilver enabled textiles represent an advancement in clothing technology, due to their antimicrobial nature.

Drifting the goals archetype: a systemic study

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Virupaxi Bagodi ◽  
Biswajit Mahanty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systems Thinking ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Current Reality

PurposeManagerial decision-making is an area of interest to both academia and practitioners. Researchers found that managers often fail to manage complex decision-making tasks and system thinkers assert that generic structures known as systems archetypes help them to a great deal in handling such situations. In this paper, it is demonstrated that decision makers resort to lowering of goal (quick-fix) in order to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality in the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.Design/methodology/approachA real-life case study is taken up to highlight the pitfalls of “drifting the goals” systems archetype for a decision situation in the Indian two-wheeler industry. System dynamics modeling is made use of to obtain the results.FindingsThe decision makers fail to realize the pitfall of lowering the goal to resolve the gap between the goal and current reality. It is seen that, irrespective of current less-than-desirable performance, managers adopting corrective actions other than lowering of goals perform better in the long run. Further, it is demonstrated that extending the boundary and experimentation results in designing a better service system and setting benchmarks.Practical implicationsThe best possible way to avoid the pitfall is to hold the vision and not lower the long term goal. The managers must be aware of the pitfalls beforehand.Originality/valueSystems thinking is important in complex decision-making tasks. Managers need to embrace long-term perspective in decision-making. This paper demonstrates the value of systems thinking in terms of a case study on the “drifting the goals” systems archetype.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Assessment of Water Sensitive Urban Design Practices based on Multi-criteria Decision Analysis via a Case Study of the University of Melbourne, Australia

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2885
Author(s):  
Hanxiang Xiong ◽  
Yafei Sun ◽  
Xingwei Ren
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Urban Design ◽  
Comprehensive Assessment ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Water Sensitive Urban Design ◽  
Final Score ◽  
Green Stormwater Infrastructure ◽  
A Site ◽  
The University

Water sensitive urban design (WSUD), as a typical green stormwater infrastructure (GSI), contains various facilities to decrease the urbanization impacts and enhance the values of amenity, ecosystem, and livability in Australia. Although WSUD has developed over 30 years, existing studies for WSUD performances have sometimes ignored its economic and social benefits, and there is still a lack of an integrated framework to optimize the GSI combinations based on various criteria in a site. This paper aims to utilize “score-rank-select” strategy to comprehensively assess WSUD combination scenarios from functional, economic, social, and environmental aspects, by taking the University of Melbourne (Parkville campus) as a case study. In detail, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used for weight determination and scenario comparison. The results showed that scenario 4 with 52% green WSUD facilities had the highest assessment score (0.771) among the five scenarios, while the final score (0.758) of scenario 5 was lower than scenario 4 although its green facility proportion reached 69%. The trade-off relation between the proportion of grey and green WSUD facilities was further demonstrated. Additionally, this paper strongly recommends that the MCDA-based comprehensive assessment framework described here can be generally promoted for the water sector to solve the decision-making problems. The use of such a framework can further promote sustainable development by helping water managers to make informed and inclusive decisions involving a variety of factors.

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