RISK-FREE RATES AND ANIMAL SPIRITS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 1650011 ◽  
Author(s):  
JUKKA ILOMÄKI
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Animal Spirit ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Global Stock ◽  
Free Rate

We show analytically that animal spirit excess profits for uninformed investors fall (increase) when the risk-free rate rises (falls). In the theoretical analysis, we examine the expected returns of risk-averse, short-lived investors. In addition, we find empirically that the local risk-free rates explain 14% of the changes in the animal spirit excess profits in the global stock markets for the last 29 years when the animal spirits is characterized as a product of the trend-chasing rule.

scholarly journals CONNECTING THEORY AND EMPIRICS FOR ANIMAL SPIRITS, RETURNS AND INTEREST RATES: A CLARIFICATION OF “RISK-FREE RATES AND ANIMAL SPIRITS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS”

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750002 ◽  
Author(s):  
JUKKA ILOMÄKI
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

I clarify and combine the results of Ilomäki (2016a) and Ilomäki (2016b) and find several interesting conclusions. First, the effect of the animal spirits component to the expected returns of investors depends on the risk-free rate. Second, there must be an upper limit for the risk-free rate, where the component that reduces the expected returns of informed investors in Ilomäki (2016a) disappears. Third, the empirical results of Ilomäki (2016b) indicates that the break-even level is as low as 3%.

scholarly journals METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO THE DISCOUNTING RATE CHOICE IN FORENSIC ECONOMICS RESEARCH

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Paientko ◽  
M. Rudaia
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

The article summarizes the methodological approaches to the choice of discount rate. The purpose of the article is to substantiate methodological approaches to the selection of the discount rate concerning the examination related to the recognition of assets and liabilities requiring discounted valuations in the financial statements. The practical application of the discount rate methodology is explored. One of the most important models for estimating expected returns on securities portfolios, equity and the basis for setting risk premiums and discount rates is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In spite of the fact that the mandatory use of the model in Ukraine is absent at legislative level, the correctness of its application is confirmed by long-term business practice worldwide. It has been determined, that in order to protect the position of legal experts in the preparation of opinions related to local risk-free rate for evaluation of the discount rate determination it is suggested to use global risk-free rate with the appropriate adjustments. The algorithm for calculating the discount rate on the model of capital assets cost, which is possible to apply in the current realities of Ukraine, is substantiated.

scholarly journals FALSE CONSCIOUSNESS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS: OR IS IT IN IVORY TOWERS?

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
Adi Schnytzer ◽  
Sara Westreich
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Recent Model ◽  
Economic Index ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
False Consciousness ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Negative Expectations

In general, models in finance assume that investors are risk averse. An example of such a recent model is the pioneering work of Aumann and Serrano, which presents an economic index of riskiness of gambles which is independent of wealth and holds (as might be understood from the adjective “economic”) for exclusively risk averse investors. In their paper, they discuss gambles with positive expected returns which will be accepted or rejected by agents which different levels of risk aversion. The question never asked by the authors (and in most of the finance literature) is: Who is offering these attractive gambles? To arrive at an answer, we extend the Aumann-Serrano risk index in such a way that it accommodates gambles with either positive or negative expectations and is thus suitable for both the risk averse and risk lovers.  Once we allow for the existence of risk lovers, it may be shown that in financial markets, many gambles with negative expectations are taken either knowingly or unknowingly so that there are always people that act as if they are risk lovers. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the implications of our result, in particular that gambling is by no means restricted to the casino or the track.

Principles for modelling financial markets

1996 ◽  
Vol 33 (03) ◽  
pp. 601-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eckhard Platen ◽  
Rolando Rebolledo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Real World ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Probability Measures ◽  
Market Clearing ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

The paper introduces an approach focused towards the modelling of dynamics of financial markets. It is based on the three principles of market clearing, exclusion of instantaneous arbitrage and minimization of increase of arbitrage information. The last principle is equivalent to the minimization of the difference between the risk neutral and the real world probability measures. The application of these principles allows us to identify various market parameters, e.g. the risk-free rate of return. The approach is demonstrated on a simple financial market model, for which the dynamics of a virtual risk-free rate of return can be explicitly computed.

IMPLICATION OF THE KELLY CRITERION FOR MULTI-DIMENSIONAL PROCESSES

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (01) ◽  
pp. 93-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
YINGDONG LV ◽  
BERNHARD K. MEISTER
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
General Setting ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Kelly Criterion ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Free Rate

In this paper, we study the Kelly criterion in the continuous time framework building on the work of E.O. Thorp and others. The existence of an optimal strategy is proven in a general setting and the corresponding optimal wealth process is found. A simple formula is provided for calculating the optimal portfolio in terms of drift, short term risk-free rate and correlations for a set of generic multi-dimensional diffusion processes satisfying some simple conditions. Properties of the optimal investment strategy are studied. The paper ends with a short discussion of the implications of these ideas for financial markets.

scholarly journals The Risk Averse Investor's Equilibrium Equity Premium in a Semi Martingale Market with Arbitrary Jumps

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
George M. Mukupa ◽  
Elias R. Offen ◽  
Edward M. Lungu
Keyword(s):  
Utility Function ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Negative Exponential ◽  
Exponential Utility Function ◽  
Free Rate

In this paper, we study the risk averse investor's equilibrium equity premium in a semi martingale market with arbitrary jumps. We realize that,  if we normalize the market, the equilibrium equity premium is consistent to taking the risk free rate $\rho=0$ in martingale markets. We also observe that the value process affects both the diffusive and rare-event premia except for the CARA negative exponential utility function. The bond price always affect the diffusive risk premium for this risk averse investor.

Review of top five financial markets during the pandemic times

2021 ◽  
pp. 2131001
Author(s):  
Tahir Mumtaz Awan ◽  
Jamal Maqsood
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Market News ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Virus Origin ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Global Stock

The purpose of this paper is to jot down the devastating impacts of COVID-19 towards the top five financial markets of the world and to see how they reacted back in different phases of COVID-19 from start till July 2020. The review is based on the financial market news, blogs, the governmental, and other financial bodies’ websites. The effects of the pandemic are like the damage never seen before in a much shorter time, vanishing a quarter portion of wealth in about a month and creating continuous uncertainties for investors throughout. China despite being the virus origin still performed well and better among all top markets whereas the rest all the stock exchanges remained inconsistent. This paper is the first of its kind to review the COVID-19 effects on the top five global stock markets and the governmental responses towards them. The study along with contributing to the existing literature is also assisting investors, analysts, specialists, and authorities to analyze their opinions w.r.t. stock markets performances, government responses, and their future market-related decisions.

scholarly journals Sentiment Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-165
Author(s):  
Prajwal Eachempati ◽  
Praveen Ranjan Srivastava ◽  
Prabin Kumar Panigrahi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Global Markets ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Global Stock

COVID-19 is a dreadful infectious disease, morphed into an economic crisis causing extensive and longstanding ramifications across global markets. Investors continue to hear about COVID-19 and its impact in one corner of the globe or the other for a long time. Though the effects of COVID19 started in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, global markets did not respond actively till W.H.O officially declared on March 11, 2020, that the COVID19 outbreak is a global pandemic. These multi-channel events have eroded investor sentiment, tanking the global stock markets. This article uses a machine learning approach to Twitter to analyze and follow investor sentiment that has guided the market to the new low during the first 150 days of the COVID-19 era. The only respite for recovery of financial markets is the lowering of COVID-19 infected cases for the time being till a vaccine is developed for the virus.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic and Investor Herding in International Stock Markets

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 168
Author(s):  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Riza Demirer ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Jacobus Nel
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Herding Behavior ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Global Stock Markets ◽  
Global Stock

The aim of this study is to understand the effect of the recent novel coronavirus pandemic on investor herding behavior in global stock markets. Utilizing a daily newspaper-based index of financial uncertainty associated with infectious diseases, we examine the association between pandemic-induced market uncertainty and herding behavior in a set of 49 global stock markets. More specifically, we study the pattern of cross-sectional market behavior and examine whether the pandemic-induced uncertainty drives directional similarity across the global stock markets that cannot be explained by the standard asset pricing models. Utilizing a time-varying variation of the static herding model, we first identify periods during which herding is detected. We then employ probit models to examine the possible association between pandemic-induced uncertainty and the formation of herding. Our findings show a strong association between herd formation in stock markets and COVID-19 induced market uncertainty. The herding effect of COVID-19 induced market uncertainty is particularly strong for emerging stock markets as well as European PIIGS stock markets that include some of the hardest hit economies in Europe by the pandemic. The findings establish a direct link between the recent pandemic and herd formation among market participants in global financial markets. Considering the evidence that herding behavior can drive security prices away from equilibrium values supported by fundamentals and further contribute to price fluctuations in financial markets, our findings have significant implications for policy makers and investors in their efforts to monitor investor sentiment and mitigate mis-valuations that might occur as a result. Furthermore, the evidence on the behavioral pattern of stock investors in relation to infectious diseases uncertainty can be useful in studying price discovery in stock markets and might help market participants in forming hedging strategies to mitigate downside risk in their investment portfolios.

A Puzzle of Excessive Equity Risk Premium and the Case of Poland

e-Finanse ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Paweł Kliber
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Risk Free Rate ◽  
Excessive Risk ◽  
Free Rate

AbstractThe article presents a historical review of the literature related to the empirical problem of excessive risk premium. The risk premium (the difference between the return on equities and risk-free rate) observed in financial markets cannot be reconciled with theoretical models of financial markets - it is too high (“excessive”). We present the original model from the seminal work of Mehra and Prescott (1985), where this problem has been signaled. The article gives an overview of the main trends in the literature concerning this problem, of the proposed solutions and of the extension to the model. Finally, we consider the problem in the Polish context, estimating the original Mehra-Prescott model using data from the Polish financial market.

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