Robustness analysis of Bitcoin confirmation times

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 20-23
Author(s):  
Ivo Stoepker ◽  
Rowel Gundlach ◽  
Stella Kapodistria
Keyword(s):  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Small Degree ◽  
Heuristic Model ◽  
Random Amount

Bitcoin payments require a random amount of time to get confirmed (i.e. to be grouped by the miners into a block and to be added to the Bitcoin blockchain). In [8, 11], the authors propose the modelling of the Bitcoin confirmation time by the so-called time to ruin of the Cramer-Lundberg (CL) model. This provides off-the-shelf results directly aimed at predicting the confirmation time. However, analyses suggest that the data may not fully conform with the CL model assumptions. In this manuscript, we show by means of a robustness analysis that the time to ruin of a CL model is near insensitive to small changes in the model assumptions and illustrate that the proposed heuristic model can be used to accurately predict the confirmation times even when the data deviate (to a small degree) from the model assumptions.

Artikel Strategi tentang Pengambilan Keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Winda Safitri Caniago ◽  
Hade Afriansyah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Heuristic Model ◽  
Selection Of

Decision making is an action with determine the result in solving problem with choose a rule action between alternative through a mental of process, logic of process and etc. This purpose article is to help make it easier to solve a problem. This article explain some strategy decision making such as optimization model, satisfying model, mixed scanning model, heuristic model, and last the selection of certain model.

Bimolecular Reactions, Transition-State Theory

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niels Engholm Henriksen ◽  
Flemming Yssing Hansen
Keyword(s):  
Transition State ◽  
Saddle Point ◽  
Transition State Theory ◽  
Classical Mechanics ◽  
Small Degree ◽  
State Theory ◽  
Reaction Coordinate ◽  
Partition Functions ◽  
Bimolecular Reactions ◽  
Activated Complex

This chapter discusses an approximate approach—transition-state theory—to the calculation of rate constants for bimolecular reactions. A reaction coordinate is identified from a normal-mode coordinate analysis of the activated complex, that is, the supermolecule on the saddle-point of the potential energy surface. Motion along this coordinate is treated by classical mechanics and recrossings of the saddle point from the product to the reactant side are neglected, leading to the result of conventional transition-state theory expressed in terms of relevant partition functions. Various alternative derivations are presented. Corrections that incorporate quantum mechanical tunnelling along the reaction coordinate are described. Tunnelling through an Eckart barrier is discussed and the approximate Wigner tunnelling correction factor is derived in the limit of a small degree of tunnelling. It concludes with applications of transition-state theory to, for example, the F + H2 reaction, and comparisons with results based on quasi-classical mechanics as well as exact quantum mechanics.

scholarly journals Stability and Robustness of Unbalanced Genetic Toggle Switches in the Presence of Scarce Resources

Life ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 271
Author(s):  
Chentao Yong ◽  
Andras Gyorgy
Keyword(s):  
Cell Fate ◽  
Rational Design ◽  
Resource Competition ◽  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
System Level ◽  
Genetic Circuits ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Genetic Systems

While the vision of synthetic biology is to create complex genetic systems in a rational fashion, system-level behaviors are often perplexing due to the context-dependent dynamics of modules. One major source of context-dependence emerges due to the limited availability of shared resources, coupling the behavior of disconnected components. Motivated by the ubiquitous role of toggle switches in genetic circuits ranging from controlling cell fate differentiation to optimizing cellular performance, here we reveal how their fundamental dynamic properties are affected by competition for scarce resources. Combining a mechanistic model with nullcline-based stability analysis and potential landscape-based robustness analysis, we uncover not only the detrimental impacts of resource competition, but also how the unbalancedness of the switch further exacerbates them. While in general both of these factors undermine the performance of the switch (by pushing the dynamics toward monostability and increased sensitivity to noise), we also demonstrate that some of the unwanted effects can be alleviated by strategically optimized resource competition. Our results provide explicit guidelines for the context-aware rational design of toggle switches to mitigate our reliance on lengthy and expensive trial-and-error processes, and can be seamlessly integrated into the computer-aided synthesis of complex genetic systems.

scholarly journals Online State-of-Charge Estimation Based on the Gas–Liquid Dynamics Model for Li(NiMnCo)O2 Battery

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 324
Author(s):  
Haobin Jiang ◽  
Xijia Chen ◽  
Yifu Liu ◽  
Qian Zhao ◽  
Huanhuan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stress Test ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Open Circuit ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
State Of Charge ◽  
Constant Current ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Battery Management System ◽  
Liquid Dynamics

Accurately estimating the online state-of-charge (SOC) of the battery is one of the crucial issues of the battery management system. In this paper, the gas–liquid dynamics (GLD) battery model with direct temperature input is selected to model Li(NiMnCo)O2 battery. The extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm is elaborated to couple the offline model and online model to achieve the goal of quickly eliminating initial errors in the online SOC estimation. An implementation of the hybrid pulse power characterization test is performed to identify the offline parameters and determine the open-circuit voltage vs. SOC curve. Apart from the standard cycles including Constant Current cycle, Federal Urban Driving Schedule cycle, Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule cycle and Dynamic Stress Test cycle, a combined cycle is constructed for experimental validation. Furthermore, the study of the effect of sampling time on estimation accuracy and the robustness analysis of the initial value are carried out. The results demonstrate that the proposed method realizes the accurate estimation of SOC with a maximum mean absolute error at 0.50% in five working conditions and shows strong robustness against the sparse sampling and input error.

scholarly journals Population simulations of COVID-19 outbreaks provide tools for risk assessment and continuity planning

JAMIA Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Peng ◽  
Rowland W Pettit ◽  
Christopher I Amos
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Command Line ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Continuity Planning ◽  
Quantitative Estimates ◽  
Community Infection

Abstract Objectives We developed COVID-19 Outbreak Simulator (https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/) to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of preventative and interventive measures to prevent and battle COVID-19 outbreaks for specific populations. Materials and methods Our simulator simulates the entire course of infection and transmission of the virus among individuals in heterogeneous populations, subject to operations and influences, such as quarantine, testing, social distancing, and community infection. It provides command-line and Jupyter notebook interfaces and a plugin system for user-defined operations. Results The simulator provides quantitative estimates for COVID-19 outbreaks in a variety of scenarios and assists the development of public health policies, risk-reduction operations, and emergency response plans. Discussion Our simulator is powerful, flexible, and customizable, although successful applications require realistic estimation and robustness analysis of population-specific parameters. Conclusion Risk assessment and continuity planning for COVID-19 outbreaks are crucial for the continued operation of many organizations. Our simulator will be continuously expanded to meet this need.

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