scholarly journals Nonexistence of Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect with Endogenous Time Preference in an Imperfect Capital Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deng-Shan Wang ◽  
Miao Jin
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Stable Steady State ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper investigates the spending and current-account effects of a permanent terms-of-trade change in a dynamic small open economy facing an imperfect world capital market, where the households’ subjective discount rate is a function of savings. Under the assumption that the bond holdings are measured in terms of home goods, it is shown that when the discount rate is a decreasing function of savings, there does not necessarily exist a stable state; however, when the discount rate is an increasing function of savings, a saddle-path stable steady state comes into existence and the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect does not exist unambiguously; that is, an unanticipated permanent terms-of-trade deterioration leads to a cut in aggregate expenditure and a current-account surplus. The short-run effects obtained by the technique by Judd (1985, 1987) and Zou (1997) are consistent with the results from the long-run analysis and diagrammatic analysis.

ANOTHER VIEW OF THE J-CURVE

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
OLIVIER CARDI
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Habit Persistence ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The Current Account

Most of empirical studies find evidence of the J-Curve, but recent results cast doubt over its standard explanation. By addressing the countercyclicality of the current account and its dynamic link with the terms of trade, this paper revisits the J-Curve phenomenon using a two-good dynamic optimizing small open economy model allowing for a habit-forming behavior and capital adjustment costs. While the nonmonotonic adjustment of the current account relies on the degree of habit persistence in consumption and the magnitude of capital installation costs after an unanticipated terms of trade worsening, we show that the sizes of the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution under time nonseparable preferences and the import content of real consumption and investment matter as well after a temporary perturbation. As a consequence of an intertemporal speculation effect and an inertia effect, the small country reaches the long-term equilibrium with higher foreign assets after a short-lived terms of trade worsening.

HABIT FORMATION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cem Karayalçin
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

The paper studies the effects of an expansionary fiscal policy in a general equilibrium model of a small open economy. Households are assumed to possess habit-forming, endogenous rates of time preference. In response to fiscal shocks, the model generates cyclical endogenous persistence and procyclical time paths for consumption, employment, and investment, as well as a countercyclical path for the current account. Furthermore, fiscal shocks are shown to have positive long-run effects on output and negative long-run effects on consumption.

Risk Aversion and Unemployment in an Open Economy

2000 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pia Weiß
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Risk Behaviour ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Search Frictions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe paper analyses the impact which risk aversion has on a small open economy characterised by search frictions on the labour market. It is shown that the long-run qualitative effects caused by a terms-of-trade shock are independent of individual risk behaviour. As far as quantitative aspects are concerned risk aversion always leads to higher equilibrium employment; however the increase in unemployment due to a price shock is the higher the more risk-averse individuals are.

scholarly journals FISCAL AUSTERITY MEASURES: SPENDING CUTS VS. TAX INCREASES

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 501-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Glomm ◽  
Juergen Jung ◽  
Chung Tran
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Welfare Effects ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Welfare Losses ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Fiscal Austerity

We formulate an overlapping-generations model with household heterogeneity and productive and nonproductive government programs to study the macroeconomic and intergenerational welfare effects of risk premium shocks and government debt reductions. We demonstrate that in a small open economy with a high level of debt, a small increase in the risk premium of the interest rate leads to a substantial contraction in output and negative welfare effects. We then quantify the effects of reducing the debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio using a wide range of fiscal austerity measures. Our results indicate trade-offs between short-run contractions and long-run expansions in aggregate output. In the short run, spending-based austerity reforms are worse than tax-based reforms in terms of lost income. However, in the long run, spending-based reforms produce higher output than tax-based reforms. In addition, welfare effects vary significantly across generations, skill groups, and working sectors. The current old and middle-aged generations experience welfare losses, whereas future generations are beneficiaries of the reforms.

Nexus Between Discount Rate and Industrial Performance

2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092110287
Author(s):  
Ajab Khan
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Industrial Performance ◽  
Long Term Performance ◽  
Term Performance

This study investigates the short-run responses and long-run performances of seven industries’ stock indices with discount rate changes in the firms listed in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE) between 2009 and 2018. The results indicate that short-run returns react positively to discount rate reduction, excluding the oil industry and vice versa. Therefore, long-term performance responds favourably with a reduction in the discount rate. Discount rate changes affect the apparel industry the most, while the oil industry is the least on the list. This study serves potential investors for their returns against investment among these industries. Furthermore, it works as a guideline for regulators and policymakers to manage fluctuations for a stable capital market.

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

A Dynamic Analysis of Child Labor with a Variable Rate of Discount: Some Policy Implications

2006 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Satya P Das ◽  
Rajat Deb
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Child Labor ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Infinite Horizon ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Poverty Trap ◽  
Variable Rate ◽  
Lump Sum ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

AbstractThis paper analyzes the problem of child labor in an infinite-horizon dynamic model with a variable rate of time preference and credit constraints. The variability in the rate of time preference leads to the possibility of multiple steady states and a poverty trap. The paper considers the long-run and short-run effects of an array of policies like enrollment subsidy, improvement in primary education infrastructure, lump-sum subsidy, and variations in loan market parameters. We distinguish between policies that reduce child labor in the long run only in the presence of a variable discount rate and other policies which work whether or not the discount rate is variable. Credit-related policies belong to the former group. Policies that reduce child labor and increase family consumption in the long run may have an adverse effect of lowering consumption in the short run.

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