scholarly journals Application of Chaos Theory in the Prediction of Motorised Traffic Flows on Urban Networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aderemi Adewumi ◽  
Jimmy Kagamba ◽  
Alex Alochukwu
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Chaos Theory ◽  
Road Networks ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Largest Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Urban Networks ◽  
Urban Road ◽  
Traffic Flow Prediction ◽  
Lyapunov Time ◽  
Congestion Problems

In recent times, urban road networks are faced with severe congestion problems as a result of the accelerating demand for mobility. One of the ways to mitigate the congestion problems on urban traffic road network is by predicting the traffic flow pattern. Accurate prediction of the dynamics of a highly complex system such as traffic flow requires a robust methodology. An approach for predicting Motorised Traffic Flow on Urban Road Networks based on Chaos Theory is presented in this paper. Nonlinear time series modeling techniques were used for the analysis of the traffic flow prediction with emphasis on the technique of computation of the Largest Lyapunov Exponent to aid in the prediction of traffic flow. The study concludes that algorithms based on the computation of the Lyapunov time seem promising as regards facilitating the control of congestion because of the technique’s effectiveness in predicting the dynamics of complex systems especially traffic flow.

scholarly journals Multidimensional Scaling-Based Data Dimension Reduction Method for Application in Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction for Urban Road Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Zhao ◽  
Satish V. Ukkusuri ◽  
Jian Lu
Keyword(s):  
Dimension Reduction ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Reduction Method ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Dimension Reduction Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Urban Road ◽  
Traffic Flow Prediction ◽  
Flow Prediction

This study develops a multidimensional scaling- (MDS-) based data dimension reduction method. The method is applied to short-term traffic flow prediction in urban road networks. The data dimension reduction method can be divided into three steps. The first is data selection based on qualitative analysis, the second is data grouping using the MDS method, and the last is data dimension reduction based on a correlation coefficient. Backpropagation neural network (BPNN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models are employed in four kinds of urban traffic environments to test whether the proposed method improves the prediction accuracy of traffic flow. The results show that prediction models using traffic data after dimension reduction outperform the same prediction models using other datasets. The proposed method provides an alternative to existing models for urban traffic prediction.

The Urban Road Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Research

2013 ◽  
Vol 423-426 ◽  
pp. 2954-2956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Hai Qin
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Social Resources ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Urban Road ◽  
Traffic Flow Prediction ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Short Period

To predict the future traffic flow status more accurately is of great significance to alleviate urban traffic congestion for a short period of time and avoid the waste of social resources. At first, this paper summarizes the characteristics of urban expressway traffic flow. Then establishes BP neural network short-term traffic flow evaluation model based on MATLAB, and finally through the instance, verify the validity of the model.

TripRes

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Xiaolong Xu ◽  
Zijie Fang ◽  
Lianyong Qi ◽  
Xuyun Zhang ◽  
Qiang He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Discrete Distribution ◽  
Resource Provisioning ◽  
Path Selection ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Traffic Flows ◽  
Multimedia Services ◽  
Traffic Flow Prediction ◽  
The City ◽  
Multimedia Surveillance

The Internet of Vehicles (IoV) connects vehicles, roadside units (RSUs) and other intelligent objects, enabling data sharing among them, thereby improving the efficiency of urban traffic and safety. Currently, collections of multimedia content, generated by multimedia surveillance equipment, vehicles, and so on, are transmitted to edge servers for implementation, because edge computing is a formidable paradigm for accommodating multimedia services with low-latency resource provisioning. However, the uneven or discrete distribution of the traffic flow covered by edge servers negatively affects the service performance (e.g., overload and underload) of edge servers in multimedia IoV systems. Therefore, how to accurately schedule and dynamically reserve proper numbers of resources for multimedia services in edge servers is still challenging. To address this challenge, a traffic flow prediction driven resource reservation method, called TripRes, is developed in this article. Specifically, the city map is divided into different regions, and the edge servers in a region are treated as a “big edge server” to simplify the complex distribution of edge servers. Then, future traffic flows are predicted using the deep spatiotemporal residual network (ST-ResNet), and future traffic flows are used to estimate the amount of multimedia services each region needs to offload to the edge servers. With the number of services to be offloaded in each region, their offloading destinations are determined through latency-sensitive transmission path selection. Finally, the performance of TripRes is evaluated using real-world big data with over 100M multimedia surveillance records from RSUs in Nanjing China.

Make More Connections: Urban Traffic Flow Forecasting with Spatiotemporal Adaptive Gated Graph Convolution Network

2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Bin Lu ◽  
Xiaoying Gan ◽  
Haiming Jin ◽  
Luoyi Fu ◽  
Xinbing Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Propagation Mechanism ◽  
Urban Road ◽  
The Road ◽  
Traffic Flow Forecasting ◽  
Gating Mechanism

Urban traffic flow forecasting is a critical issue in intelligent transportation systems. Due to the complexity and uncertainty of urban road conditions, how to capture the dynamic spatiotemporal correlation and make accurate predictions is very challenging. In most of existing works, urban road network is often modeled as a fixed graph based on local proximity. However, such modeling is not sufficient to describe the dynamics of the road network and capture the global contextual information. In this paper, we consider constructing the road network as a dynamic weighted graph through attention mechanism. Furthermore, we propose to seek both spatial neighbors and semantic neighbors to make more connections between road nodes. We propose a novel Spatiotemporal Adaptive Gated Graph Convolution Network ( STAG-GCN ) to predict traffic conditions for several time steps ahead. STAG-GCN mainly consists of two major components: (1) multivariate self-attention Temporal Convolution Network ( TCN ) is utilized to capture local and long-range temporal dependencies across recent, daily-periodic and weekly-periodic observations; (2) mix-hop AG-GCN extracts selective spatial and semantic dependencies within multi-layer stacking through adaptive graph gating mechanism and mix-hop propagation mechanism. The output of different components are weighted fused to generate the final prediction results. Extensive experiments on two real-world large scale urban traffic dataset have verified the effectiveness, and the multi-step forecasting performance of our proposed models outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.

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